Ayr (Scottish Parliament constituency)

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Ayr
county constituency
for the Scottish Parliament
150px
South Scotland (Scottish Parliament electoral region).svg
Ayr shown within the South Scotland electoral region and the region shown within Scotland
Current constituency
Created 1999
Party Conservative
MSP John Scott
Council area South Ayrshire

Ayr is a constituency of the Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) which elects one Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) via the plurality (first past the post) electoral system. It is also one of nine constituencies in the South Scotland electoral region which elects seven additional members to the Scottish Parliament via a proportional electoral system known as the Additional Members System (abbreviated AMS) which allows for fairer representation for the region as a whole.

Electoral region

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The other eight constituencies of the South Scotland region are Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley, Clydesdale, Dumfriesshire, East Lothian, Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Galloway and West Dumfries, Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale. The region covers the Dumfries and Galloway, East Ayrshire, Scottish Borders and South Ayrshire council areas in full and elements of the East Lothian, Midlothian and South Lanarkshire council areas.

Constituency boundaries and council area

1999-2011

The Ayr constituency was created at the same time as the Scottish Parliament, in 1999, following the same boundaries as the existing Ayr constituency at Westminister. In 2005 however, most UK Parliamentary constituencies in Scotland were replaced with new constituencies, with the Ayr constituency being abolished and replaced by the Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock and Central Ayrshire constituencies.[1] This had no impact on the boundaries of the Ayr constituency within the Scottish Parliament, which used the old Westminister boundaries during the 2007 election to the Scottish Parliament.

The constituency covered the electoral wards of:

The remaining section of South Ayrshire was covered by the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency.

2011-

Following the First Periodic review of constituencies to the Scottish Parliament in time for the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, the Boundary Commission for Scotland recommended alterations to the existing Ayr constituency which were then implemented and used at the 2011 Scottish Parliament election. These boundaries remain in place today and will be used at the 2016 Scottish Parliament election.

The review suggested that the Ayr constituency take in the electoral wards of:

  • Troon, Prestwick, Ayr North, Ayr East and Ayr West

All remaining wards in South Ayrshire form part of the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency.

Constituency profile and voting patterns

Constituency profile

The Ayr constituency incorporates the towns of Ayr, Prestwick and Troon which run along the west coast of Ayrshire. The constituency is exclusively contained within the South Ayrshire council area.

All three towns within the constituency are well-established sea-side resorts. Ayr annually hosts the Scottish Grand National and the Scottish Airshow whilst the Golf Courses of Prestwick and Troon have both played host to the British Open Championship. The seat also takes in Glasgow Prestwick International Airport and Robert Burns cottage in Alloway, Ayr.

Data derived from the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation and Office for National Statistics indicates that the Ayr seat contains a diverse and muddled mix of affluent suburban areas and deprived council estates, with 43% of the seat's populous living in the 30% most affleunt datazones in Scotland.[3][4][5]

Voting patterns

Historically, the Ayr seat has held a higher level of support for the Conservative and Unionist Party in comparison to elsewhere in Scotland and the United Kingdom as a whole. The equivalent Westminister seat of Ayr was gained by the Conservative Party at its creation in 1950. In subsequent elections, the seat went on to return Conservative MP's until the 1997 General Election, when the boundaries of the constituency were altered in a move which saw a number of Conservative-voting suburbs being transferred to the adjoining Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency which subsequently altered the demographics of the constituency - benefiting the Labour Party. In spite of this, in the 1997 election the Ayr seat returned one of the smallest pro-Labour swings in Great Britain at just 5%.[6]

Prior to this the Ayr Burghs constituency (which incorporated a number of towns in coastal Ayrshire including Irvine, Troon, Prestwick, Ayr, Saltcoats and Ardrossan) voted continuously Conservative from 1906 until it's abolishment in 1950, making Ayr the longest seat to be held continuously by the Conservatives in Scotland (continuously having a Conservative MP at Westminister for 91 years). Ayr has been represented by a Conservative MP or MSP for a total of nearly 120 years - the longest of any constituency in Scotland. Most of the Conservative party's support is found in Ayr's most affluent areas.

In the 2003 local council election for South Ayrshire, the Scottish Conservative party's support was concentrated in suburban areas along the boundaries of the constituency, primarily contained within Doonfoot and Seafield, Alloway, Ayr Fort, St Leonard's, north Belmont, Masonhill, Holmston, Castlehill, Barassie, Muirhead, south Troon and in north, west and central Prestwick. The Labour party have traditionally found success in more deprived areas of the constituency, winning in council estates such as Kincaidston, Forehill and Prestwick Toll, throughout north Ayr and in western Troon at the 2003 local council election.[7]

Area Classification mapping conducted by the Office for National Statistics suggests that the majority of those defined as Urban- and Suburbanites in the constituency tend to vote for the Conservatives, whilst those described as "Constrained City Dwellers", "Hard-Pressed Living" and "Cosmopolitans" are more likely to vote in favour of Labour and the SNP.[8] The Ayr constituency contains a mixture of both Urban/Suburbanites and Constrained City Dwellers/Hard-pressed Living, with most areas south of the river Ayr and in Prestwick and Troon being classed as Urban/Suburbanites and north of the river Ayr being overwhelmingly composed of Hard-Pressed Living and Constrained City Dwellers. Ayr east is a mix of the two, with Kincaidston, Forehill and south Belmont all being largely Hard-Pressed Living whilst St. Leonard's, much of north Belmont, Masonhill, Castlehill and Holmston being defined as Suburban.

The rural north east of the former Ayr constituency (1999-2011) incorporated the majority of the Kyle electoral ward with the exception of Mossblown, Annbank and St. Quivox. The area is similar to the rest of Ayr in that it contains a mixture of affluent and deprived areas, with the former mining community of Tarbolton voting largely in favour of the Labour Party and more lately the SNP: the Scottish Socialist Party performed strongly in the area at the 2000 Ayr by-election. The villages of Loans and Symington have voted quite strongly Conservative on a local level which suggests that the area has voted largely in favour of the Conservatives as part of the Ayr constituency. At the 2003 local election, the Conservatives were able to secure over 50% of the vote in the section of Kyle which was covered as part of the former Ayr constituency. The remainder of the Kyle electoral ward (Mossblown, Annbank and St. Quivox) shares similar characteristics to Ayr North and Tarbolton, voting strongly in favour of the Labour party at local elections (55% in the 2003 local council election) - this was the only part of Kyle to form part of the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency until 2011, when boundary change subsequently led to the entire Kyle electoral ward being incorporated in to the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency.

Until the late 2000s, the Labour Party held a significant level of support in the more deprived parts of the constituency and were able to win the constituency by 25 votes at the 1999 Scottish general election as a consequence of a high turnout and the constituency's boundaries, which excluded various Conservative-voting suburbs in southern Ayr (including Alloway, Doonfoot, Masonhill, Holmston and Castlehill). Labour's decline in support in the Scottish parliament coupled with a lower turnout enabled the Conservatives to secure the constituency comfortably at the 2000 Ayr by-election following the resignation of Ayr's first MSP, Ian Welsh. The by-election was the first by-election of the Scottish parliament, making Ayr the first Scottish Conservative constituency seat in the Scottish parliament (who won no constituency seats at the 1999 Scottish Parliament election). The Conservatives went on to hold the constituency at the 2003 and 2007 Scottish Parliament elections, despite marginally losing the seat to the Labour Party at the 2001 UK General Election. Data from the 2007 Scottish parliamentary election and the 2012 local council election suggests that the SNP have made considerable gains in Kincaidston, Forehill and south Belmont by topping the poll in the Ayr east electoral ward. In 2011, the constituency boundaries were altered, with the electoral ward of Kyle being transferred to the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley constituency. Alloway, Doonfoot and Masonhill along with part of Forehill and Kincaidston were transferred back to the Ayr constituency. The Ayr seat returned Conservative MSP John Scott with a reduced majority in the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election.

Members of the Scottish Parliament

Election Member Party
1999 Ian Welsh Labour
2000 by-election John Scott Conservative
2003
2007
2011

Election results

2016 election

Scottish Parliament election, 2016: Ayr
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative John Scott
Liberal Democrats
SNP Jennifer Dunn
Labour
Majority
Turnout
[[|N/A]] hold Swing

2011 election

Scottish Parliament election, 2011: Ayr[9]

Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member.
A Green tickY or Red XN denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party Votes % ±%
Conservative Green tickY John Scott 12,997 38.9 -1.04 8,539 25.51
SNP Chic Brodie 11,884 35.6 +9.28 14,377 42.96
Labour Gordon McKenzie 7,779 23.3 -4.01 7,513 22.45
Liberal Democrats Eileen Taylor 713 2.1 -3.58 744 2.22
Scottish Green   685 2.05
All Scotland Pensioners Party 595 1.78
UKIP   293 0.88
Scottish Christian   237 0.71
BNP   211 0.63
Socialist Labour   168 0.50
Scottish Socialist   76 0.23
Solidarity   30 0.09
Informal votes 118 67
Total Valid votes 33,373 33,468
Conservative hold Majority 1,113 3.34
Scottish Parliament election, 2007 Notional Result: Ayr[10]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative 13,820 40.0 -0.7
Labour 9,445 27.3 -0.8
SNP 9,101 26.3 +0.7
Liberal Democrats 2,013 5.8 +0.2
Others 187 0.5
Majority 4,375 12.7
Conservative hold Swing

2007 election result

Scottish Parliament election, 2007: Ayr[11]

Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member.
A Green tickY or Red XN denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party Votes % ±%
Conservative Green tickY John Scott 12,619 40.67 -0.05 8,983 28.90 -6.60
Labour John Duncan 8,713 28.08 -6.67 8,871 28.54 -2.29
SNP Iain White 7,952 25.63 +11.91 8,560 27.54 +13.73
Liberal Democrats Stuart Ritchie 1,741 5.61 +0.01 1,601 5.15 -0.18
Scottish Green   840 2.70 -1.92
Scottish Senior Citizens   723 2.34 -0.25(a)
Solidarity   346 1.11 +1.11
BNP   338 1.09 +1.09
Scottish Christian   253 0.81 +0.81
Socialist Labour   146 0.47 -0.29
Scottish Socialist   134 0.43 -5.29
UKIP   120 0.39 -0.14
Christian Peoples   90 0.29 +0.29
Independent - Paddy Scott Hogg 46 0.15 +0.15
Scottish Voice   27 0.09 +0.09
Informal votes 873 820
Total Valid votes 31,898 31,708
Turnout 32,681
Conservative hold Majority 3,906 12.5 +6.52

(a)-comparison with Pensioners Party (Scotland)

2003 election result

Scottish Parliament election, 2003: Ayr[12]

Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member.
A Green tickY or Red XN denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party Votes % ±%
Conservative Green tickY John Scott 12,865 40.72 +2.72 11,221 35.51 +4.58
Labour Rita Miller 10,975 34.75 -3.36 9,745 30.84 -1.31
SNP James Dornan 4,334 13.72 -5.60 4,366 13.82 -8.82
Liberal Democrats Stuart David Ritchie 1,769 5.60 +1.20 1,684 5.33 -0.84
Scottish Socialist James Scott Stewart 1,648 5.22 +5.22 1,808 5.72 +4.79
Scottish Green   1,462 4.63 +2.40
Pensioners Party 813 2.57 +2.57
Socialist Labour   240 0.76 -3.27
UKIP   166 0.53 +0.21
Scottish People's   65 0.21 +0.21
Am Partaidh Dhuthchail - The Rural Party 32 0.10 +0.10
Informal votes 145 136
Total Valid votes 31,591 31,602
Conservative hold Majority 1,890 5.98

2000 by-election result [13]

Ayr by-election, 2000

Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the by-election.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list prior to the by-election.
Yellow background denotes the winner of the by-election, who was a list MP prior to the by-election.
A Green tickY or Red XN denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative John Scott 12,580 39.44 +1.43
SNP Jim Mather 9,236 28.95 +9.48
Labour Rita Miller 7,054 22.1 -15.97
Scottish Socialist James Stewart 1,345 4.22 +4.22
Liberal Democrats Stuart Ritchie 800 2.51 -1.91
Scottish Green Gavin Nelson Corbett 460 1.44 +1.44
The Radio Vet William Clifton Botcherby 186 0.53 +0.53
UKIP Alistair David Mconnachie 113 0.35 +0.35
ProLife Alliance Robert Graham 111 0.35 +0.35
Independent Kevin James Dillion 15 0.05 +0.05
Informal votes 58
Total Valid votes 31,900
Conservative gain from Labour Majority 3,344 10.48

1999 election result

Scottish Parliament election, 1999: Ayr[14]

Notes: Green background denotes the winner of the electorate vote.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list.
Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member.
A Green tickY or Red XN denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

Party Candidate Votes % ±% Party Votes % ±%
Labour Ian Welsh 14,263 38.08 12,039 32.14
Conservative Phil Gallie 14,238 38.01 11,582 30.92
SNP Roger Mullin 7,291 19.47 8,477 22.63
Liberal Democrats Elaine Morris 1,662 4.42 2,312 6.17
Socialist Labour   1,510 4.03
Scottish Green   832 2.22
Scottish Socialist   347 0.93
Liberal   150 0.40
UKIP   119 0.32
Natural Law   87 0.23
Informal votes 114 97
Total Valid votes 37,454 37,455
Labour win new seat Majority 25 0.07

Footnotes

  1. See The 5th Periodical Report of the Boundary Commission for Scotland
  2. See Scottish Parliament constituencies 1999 - 2011
  3. 'Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics'
  4. 'Local Authority Summary – SIMD 2012, South Ayrshire'
  5. 'Population estimates for Data and Intermediate Zones Using Administrative Data: A Feasibility Study using Scotland DataZones and Intermediate Zones'
  6. Waller, R. Criddle, B. The Almanac of British Politics. 88.
  7. 'South Ayrshire Council - Election Results - 2003'
  8. 'Consumer Data Research Centre 2011 ONS Area Classification'
  9. 'Scottish Parliament Election 2011 - Results for the AYR constituency' - accessed 2 May 2015
  10. 'The New Scottish Parliament Constituencies 2011' - accessed 19 Sep 2015
  11. 'Scottish Parliament Election Results - Thursday 3 May 2007' - accessed 2 May 2015
  12. 'Scottish Parliament - Results of the 2003 Scottish Parliament Election'- accessed 2 May 2015
  13. 'Scottish Parliamentary Election - 16 March 2000 (By election - resignation of Ian Welsh MSP)' - accessed 2 May 2015
  14. 'Scottish Parliamentary Election - 6 May 1999' - accessed 2 May 2015