Cardiff South and Penarth by-election, 2012

Cardiff South and Penarth by-election, 2012

15 November 2012

Candidate Stephen Doughty Craig Williams Bablin Molik Party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat Popular vote 9,193 3,859 2,103 Percentage 47.3 19.9 10.8   Candidate Luke Nicholas Simon Zeigler Party Plaid Cymru UKIP Popular vote 1,854 1,179 Percentage 9.5 6.1

Boundary of Cardiff South and Penarth in Wales.

MP before election Alun Michael Labour Subsequent MP Stephen Doughty Labour

Following the formal resignation of the sitting MP Alun Michael (announced on 22 October 2012), a by-election for the Cardiff South and Penarth Westminster constituency was held on 15 November 2012. The vacancy arose because Alun Michael was selected as the Labour Party candidate in the Police and Crime Commissioner Elections which were also held on 15 November 2012. Michael's candidacy required him to relinquish his Westminster seat.

Background

The seat has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983. Full background details of the constituency are on Cardiff South and Penarth (UK Parliament constituency)

This was the first by-election to be held in Cardiff since the Cardiff East by-election of 1942.

On 22 October 2012, Alun Michael was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern, the manner in which resignations from the House are permitted.

The writ for the by-election in Cardiff South and Penarth was moved on 23 October 2012 and the deadline for nominations was 4 pm on 31 October 2012.

Candidates

Cardiff City Council released the Statement of Persons Nominated on 1 November 2012.

The Labour and Co-operative Party selected the head of Oxfam Cymru Stephen Doughty as its candidate in July 2012 in controversial circumstances. Although initially excluded from the shortlist, Doughty was actively endorsed by the then incumbent Labour MP Alun Michael (a long-time family friend) who insisted on his inclusion and advocated his selection. Some Labour activists considered Michael's involvement was improper saying “It’s no business at all of an outgoing MP to interfere in the selection of a candidate to succeed him in such a way.” The ballot paper description for Stephen Doughty was "Welsh Labour".

Cardiff City councillor Craig Williams was confirmed as the Conservative candidate on 13 September. Cllr Williams represents Cardiff on the Local Government Association.

Dr Bablin Molik was chosen by the Liberal Democrats as their candidate. Dr Molik is a medical researcher with a PhD.

Luke Nicholas was chosen by Plaid Cymru. The party described him as a trade unionist employed as a researcher at the National Assembly who specialises in finance, transport and local government.

Andrew Jordan, 24, the president of the Socialist Labour Party (UK) and a former resident of Cardiff South and Penarth, represented them the party. Jordan previously headed the SLP list of candidates for South Wales Central in the 2011 Welsh Assembly Elections.

The general secretary of the Communist Party of Britain (CPB), Robert Griffiths, who stood in the 2010 general election, was the candidate of the Welsh Communist Party, the local part of the CPB.

The Green Party candidate was Anthony Slaughter, chair of the local environmental group Gwyrddio Penarth Greening. Slaughter is a garden designer who has worked in Penarth since 2004.

Simon Zeigler became the UK Independence Party candidate. He was a parole office worker who stood for them in the 2010 General Election.

Cardiff South and Penarth was viewed as one of the safest Labour seats in Britain but ever since 1997 Alun Michael had seen his majority being progressively eroded. However, in the by-election held on 15 November 2012, Labour's decline was reversed - although on a basis of very low turn-out (down 38.2% on the 2010 General Election). Labour's Stephen Doughty succeeded Alun Michael with 9,193 votes, comprising 47.3% of the overall vote. This was an increase of 8.4% on Michael's 2010 performance. Doughty thus became the third MP in the constituency's history.

In this by-election, Conservatives saw their support slide by the identical percentage by which Labour's rose (8.4%) and achieved only 19.9% of the vote (3,859 votes). The Liberal Democrats' support declined by even more than that of their UK Coalition partners (down 11.5%). Plaid Cymru's share of the vote rose to 9.5% (1,854 votes, up 5.4%); however these percentages may mask reality because Plaid Cymru only gained a mere 3 votes more than the total they polled in 2010. Also performing well in percentage terms was UKIP with their support rising by 3.1% (to 6.1% of the total). Greens also increased their share of the vote to 4.1% (a rise of 2.9%). The veteran Communist campaigner Robert Griffiths saw his support rise slightly to a 1.1% share of the vote.

By-election result

Election	Political result		Candidate		Party	Votes	%	±%
Cardiff South and Penarth by-election Resignation of Alun Michael Turnout: 19,436 (25.4%) −34.8		Labour hold Majority: 5,334 (27.4%) Swing: 8.4% from Con to Lab		Stephen Doughty	Labour	9,193	47.3	+8.4
				Craig Williams	Conservative	3,859	19.9	−8.4
				Bablin Molik	Liberal Democrat	2,103	10.8	−11.5
				Luke Nicholas	Plaid Cymru	1,854	9.5	+5.3
				Simon Zeigler	UKIP	1,179	6.1	+3.5
				Anthony Slaughter	Green	800	4.1	2.9
				Andrew Jordan	Socialist Labour	235	1.2	N/A
				Robert Griffiths	Communist	213	1.1	+0.7

Previous result

Election	Political result		Candidate		Party	Votes	%	±%
General election 2010 New boundaries Turnout: 44,369 (60.2%) +2.0		Labour hold Majority: 4,709 (10.6%) Swing: 6.0% from Lab to Con		Alun Michael	Labour	17,262	38.9	−7.7
				Simon Hoare	Conservative	12,553	28.3	+4.4
				Dominic Hannigan	Liberal Democrat	9,875	22.3	+2.4
				Farida Aslam	Plaid Cymru	1,851	4.2	−1.1
				Simon Zeigler	UKIP	1,145	2.6	+1.2
				George Burke	Independent	648	1.5	N/A
				Matthew Townsend	Green	554	1.2	−0.6
				Clive Bate	Christian	285	0.6	N/A
				Robert Griffiths	Communist	196	0.4	N/A

See also

• List of United Kingdom by-elections
• Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election