File:Projected change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century to the middle 21st century, based on SRES emissions scenario A1B.png

Summary

Surface air temperature change (2050s average minus 1971-2000 average), <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOAA" class="extiw" title="en:NOAA">NOAA</a> GFDL CM2.1 Climate Model, SRES A1B scenario. Description is based on the NOAA (2007a) public-domain source: This world map shows the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/economics_of_global_warming#Scenarios" class="extiw" title="en:economics of global warming">projected</a> change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century (1971-2000 average) to the middle 21st century (2051-2060 average). The change is in response to increasing <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth" class="extiw" title="en:Atmosphere of Earth">atmospheric</a> concentrations of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/greenhouse_gas" class="extiw" title="en:greenhouse gas">greenhouse gases</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/aerosol" class="extiw" title="en:aerosol">aerosols</a> based on a "middle of the road" estimate of future emissions. Future emissions are based on the "A1B" emissions scenario, taken from the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios" class="extiw" title="en:Special Report on Emissions Scenarios">Special Report on Emissions Scenarios</a>. Warming is larger over continents than oceans, and is largest at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. These results are from the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geophysical_Fluid_Dynamics_Laboratory" class="extiw" title="en:Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory">GFDL</a> CM2.1 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/global_climate_model" class="extiw" title="en:global climate model">model</a>, but are consistent with a broad consensus of modeling results.

From the NOAA (2007b) public-domain source: The term “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/global_warming" class="extiw" title="en:global warming">global warming</a>” is commonly used to refer to surface air temperature changes that are a response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. However, the warming is not expected to be uniform over the globe, nor is it expected to be the same during all seasons of the year. Computer model simulations conducted at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and elsewhere project that GHG induced warming will be more rapid over land masses than over oceans. In the image, red colors indicate greater warming over the continents. White and blue-green colors mark areas with the least warming or slight cooling, found mostly over oceans. Additionally, the greatest warming is expected during the winter over northern North America and north-central Asia.

References:

• NOAA, January 2007b: <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/noaa-gfdl-climate-research-highlights-ar4/?_rewrite_sticky=research/climate/highlights/#patterns">GFDL Climate Modeling Research Highlights:</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/kd/pdf/gfdlhighlight_vol1n6.pdf">Patterns of greenhouse warming (PDF),</a> vol. 1, no. 6, revision 2/2/2007, 8:50.08 AM. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) - Princeton, NJ
• NOAA, 2007a: see citation for the image.

Licensing

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