Next Conservative Party (UK) leadership election

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Conservative Party (UK) leadership election
United Kingdom
← 2005

Incumbent Leader

David Cameron



During the 2015 general election campaign, David Cameron, the current Leader of the Conservative Party, announced that he would not seek a third term; he is therefore expected to stand down before the next general election,[1] which would trigger the next Conservative Party leadership election. Although the date of the leadership election is not known, the winner could also succeed Cameron as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, as the Conservative Party is currently the majority party in the House of Commons.[2]

Candidates

Publicly expressed interest

As of September 2019, the following potential candidates have publicly expressed interest in running for party leader.

Potential

As of September 2019, the following individuals have been the subjects of speculation as potential leadership candidates.

Cabinet ministers
Junior ministers
Backbench MPs

Declined

The following individuals were the focus of media speculation as being possible leadership candidates, but have ruled out a bid.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Philip
Hammond
Jeremy
Hunt
Sajid
Javid
Boris
Johnson
Theresa
May
Nicky
Morgan
George
Osborne
Other/
Undecided
YouGov[18] 23–26 February 2016 1,005 Conservative Party members ± 4% 7% 43% 19% 1% 22% 7%
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard[19][20] 14–17 November 2015 307 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] 32% 26% 23% 19%
1,021 British residents[lower-alpha 2] ± 4% 25% 19% 11% 45%
Ipsos MORI[21] 19–23 September 2015 395 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] 29% 18% 32% 20%
1,255 British residents[lower-alpha 2] 27% 17% 15% 41%
Survation/Huffington Post UK[22][23] 21–22 September 2015 303 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] 2.0% 2.9% 30.4% 16.3% 0.9% 26.2% 21.3%
1,008 British residents[lower-alpha 2] 1.9% 2% 25% 11.2% 2.1% 14.6% 43.3%
  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 People who are likely to vote Conservative in next general election.
  2. 2.0 2.1 2.2 Residents over 18 in Great Britain.

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 Kirkup, James (25 March 2015). "By 2020, the Conservative Party leader will be... not who you expect". Daily Telegraph.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  2. "Election results: Conservatives win majority". BBC News. 8 May 2015.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  3. Tom McTague (13 February 2016). "David Cameron must renege on promise to step down before general election, says senior Tory". The Independent.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  4. "Cameron mocks Boris Johnson's second referendum strategy - Politics live". The Guardian. 22 February 2016.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  5. Jane Merrick (3 October 2015). "Justine Greening: The Tories can offer working-class people a 'British dream' with no bar to social mobility". The Independent.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  6. Rowena Mason (13 August 2015). "Boris Johnson hints at Conservative leadership vacancy from 2018". The Guardian.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  7. Gaby Hinsliff (3 February 2015). "Can Theresa May make it to the top?". The Guardian.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  8. Frances Perraudin (1 October 2015). "Nicky Morgan considers standing for Tory leader when Cameron quits". The Guardian.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  9. Lynsey Barber (8 July 2015). "July Budget 2015: George Osborne biggest Budget winner as chancellor becomes favourite for next Tory leader". CityAM.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  10. Andrew Gimson (6 March 2014). "Andrew Gimson profiles Liz Truss, seen by some as a future Tory leader". ConservativeHome.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  11. Jane Merrick (9 May 2015). "Election 2015: Who could replace David Cameron as leader of the Tory party?". The Independent.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  12. "Tory rising star Penny Mordaunt set to join campaign to leave the EU". The Sun. 18 February 2016.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  13. Josh May (1 October 2015). "Owen Paterson develops checklist for future Tory leader candidates". PoliticsHome.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  14. "Conservative leadership race: Who could replace David Cameron?". Daily Telegraph. 24 March 2015.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  15. Owen Bennett (4 October 2015). "Watch Sajid Javid Rule Out Standing In The Tory Leadership Contest When David Cameron Quits". HuffPost UK.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  16. "Jeremy Hunt admits being Health Secretary is likely to be his 'last big job in politics'". Independent. 26 April 2016.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  17. "Michael Gove rules out running for Tory leader and says his friendship with David Cameron will survive the referendum'". Telegraph. 6 May 2016.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  18. "Tory membership warms to Brexit Boris". YouGov. 2 March 2016.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  19. "Public confidence in George Osborne slips – but few think Labour would do a better job". Ipsos MORI. 20 November 2015.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  20. Joe Murphy (20 November 2015). "Boris Johnson and Theresa May overtake George Osborne in Tory race to succeed David Cameron". Evening Standard.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  21. "Boris Johnson most popular prospective Conservative leader". Ipsos MORI. 1 October 2015.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  22. "Conservative Party Conference Poll" (PDF). Survation. 5 October 2015.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>
  23. Paul Waugh (1 October 2015). "Boris Johnson Is The Public's Choice As Next Tory Leader, Huffington Post UK/Survation Poll Finds". HuffPost UK.<templatestyles src="Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css"></templatestyles>

See also