Next Conservative Party (UK) leadership election
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During the 2015 general election campaign, David Cameron, the current Leader of the Conservative Party, announced that he would not seek a third term; he is therefore expected to stand down before the next general election,[1] which would trigger the next Conservative Party leadership election. Although the date of the leadership election is not known, the winner could also succeed Cameron as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, as the Conservative Party is currently the majority party in the House of Commons.[2]
Contents
Candidates
Publicly expressed interest
As of March 2024, the following potential candidates have publicly expressed interest in running for party leader.
-
Robert Buckland, Solicitor General for England and Wales.jpg
-
Rt Hon Dr Liam Fox MP (4799289920).jpg
Liam Fox,
MP for North Somerset, former Secretary of State for Defence, leadership candidate in 2005[4] -
Boris Johnson,
MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Mayor of London until May 2016[6] -
Theresa May,
MP for Maidenhead, current Home Secretary[7] -
Nicky Morgan,
MP for Loughborough, current Secretary of State for Education[8] -
George Osborne,
MP for Tatton, current Chancellor of the Exchequer[9]
Potential
As of March 2024, the following individuals have been the subjects of speculation as potential leadership candidates.
- Cabinet ministers
- Stephen Crabb, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions since 2016; MP for Preseli Pembrokeshire since 2005[1]
- Liz Truss, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs since 2014; MP for South West Norfolk since 2010[10]
- Amber Rudd, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change since 2015; MP for Hastings and Rye since 2010
- Junior ministers
- Andrea Leadsom, Minister of State for Energy and Climate Change since 2015; MP for South Northamptonshire since 2010[11]
- Penny Mordaunt, Minister of State for the Armed Forces since 2015; MP for Portsmouth North since 2010[12]
- Backbench MPs
- Owen Paterson, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 2012–2014; Secretary of State for Northern Ireland 2010–2012; MP for North Shropshire since 1997[13]
Declined
The following individuals were the focus of media speculation as being possible leadership candidates, but have ruled out a bid.
- Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee since 2010; MP for Altrincham and Sale West since 1997[14]
- Sajid Javid, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills since 2015; Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport 2014–2015; MP for Bromsgrove since 2010[15]
- Jeremy Hunt, Secretary of State for Health since 2012; MP for South West Surrey since 2005[16]
- Michael Gove, Secretary of State for Justice since 2015; Chief Whip 2014-2015; Secretary of State for Education 2010-2014; MP for Surrey Heath since 2005[17]
Opinion polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Philip Hammond |
Jeremy Hunt |
Sajid Javid |
Boris Johnson |
Theresa May |
Nicky Morgan |
George Osborne |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov[18] | 23–26 February 2016 | 1,005 Conservative Party members | ± 4% | — | — | 7% | 43% | 19% | 1% | 22% | 7% |
Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard[19][20] | 14–17 November 2015 | 307 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] | — | — | — | — | 32% | 26% | — | 23% | 19% |
1,021 British residents[lower-alpha 2] | ± 4% | — | — | — | 25% | 19% | — | 11% | 45% | ||
Ipsos MORI[21] | 19–23 September 2015 | 395 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] | — | — | — | — | 29% | 18% | — | 32% | 20% |
1,255 British residents[lower-alpha 2] | — | — | — | 27% | 17% | — | 15% | 41% | |||
Survation/Huffington Post UK[22][23] | 21–22 September 2015 | 303 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] | — | 2.0% | 2.9% | — | 30.4% | 16.3% | 0.9% | 26.2% | 21.3% |
1,008 British residents[lower-alpha 2] | 1.9% | 2% | — | 25% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 14.6% | 43.3% |
References
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