Rhineland-Palatinate state election, 2016

Rhineland-Palatinate state election, 2016

13 March 2016 (2016-03-13)
All 101 seats of the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate. 51 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	70.4 %
First party Second party Third party   150x150px Leader Malu Dreyer Julia Klöckner Uwe Junge Party SPD CDU AfD Last election 42 seats, 35.7% 41 seats, 35.2% – Seats before 42 41 – Seats won 39 35 14 Seat change 3 6 14 Popular vote 771,848 677,507 268,628 Percentage 36.2 31.8 12.6 Swing 0.5 3.4 12.6   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   150x150px 150x150px Leader Volker Wissing Eveline Lemke Jochen Bülow Party FDP Green Left Last election 0 seats, 4.2% 18 seats, 15.4% 0 seats, 3.2% Seats before 0 17 0 Seats won 7 6 0 Seat change 7 12 Popular vote 132,294 113,261 60,074 Percentage 6.2 5.3 2.8 Swing 2.0 10.2 0.2
Minister-President before election Malu Dreyer SPD Elected Minister-President Malu Dreyer SPD

The 2016 Rhineland-Palatinate state election was held on 13 March 2016 to elect all 101 members to the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate. Seats are allotted by proportional representation with a 5% threshold. State elections were held on the same day in Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt.

Going into the election, Malu Dreyer of the Social Democratic Party led a coalition government of her party with Alliance '90/The Greens.

Polls

The reference for the polls is wahlrecht.de.

Poll	Date	SPD	CDU	Green	FDP	Left	FW	Pirate	AfD	Other
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	03/10/2016	36%	35%	5.5%	7%	3%	–	–	9%	4.5%
YouGov	03/10/2016	35%	36%	6%	6%	4%	–	–	11%	2%
Forsa	03/09/2016	35%	35%	6%	6%	4%	–	–	9%	5%
INSA	03/07/2016	35%	35%	7%	5%	3%	–	–	9%	6%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	03/04/2016	34%	35%	6%	6%	4%	–	–	10%	5%
Infratest dimap	03/03/2016	34%	36%	7%	5%	4%	–	–	9%	5%
Infratest dimap	03/01/2016	32%	36%	8%	6%	4%	–	–	9%	5%
INSA	02/28/2016	32.5%	35%	10%	6%	4%	–	–	8.5%	4%
GESS Phone & Field	02/25/2016	33%	37%	8%	5%	3%	2%	–	9%	3%
INSA	02/22/2016	33%	35%	9%	7%	4%	–	–	8.5%	3.5%
Infratest dimap	02/11/2016	31%	37%	8%	6%	4%	–	–	9%	5%
INSA	02/05/2016	32%	36%	10%	6%	3%	–	–	8%	5%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	01/22/2016	31%	38%	7%	5%	5%	–	–	9%	5%
Infratest dimap	01/14/2016	31%	37%	9%	5%	5%	–	–	8%	5%
Infratest dimap	12/10/2015	31%	39%	9%	5%	5%	–	–	7%	4%
INSA	11/25/2015	31%	38.5%	11%	4.5%	3.5%	2.5%	–	7%	2%
GESS Phone & Field	11/19/2015	33%	40%	9%	5%	3%	2%	–	5%	3%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	11/06/2015	30%	41%	8%	4%	5%	–	–	6%	6%
Infratest dimap	09/24/2015	31%	41%	10%	5%	5%	–	–	4%	4%
Infratest dimap	07/23/2015	33%	42%	10%	4%	3%	–	–	3%	5%
GESS Phone & Field	06/26/2015	33%	40%	11%	4%	3%	2%	–	4%	2%
Infratest dimap	02/19/2015	32%	42%	11%	3%	3%	–	–	5%	4%
GESS Phone & Field	12/17/2014	30%	43%	10%	3%	4%	1%	1%	5%	3%
Infratest dimap	11/13/2014	31%	43%	11%	2%	4%	–	–	5%	4%
Infratest dimap	09/25/2014	31%	43%	10%	2%	4%	–	–	6%	4%
GESS Phone & Field	06/24/2014	32%	41%	10%	3%	4%	2%	–	4%	4%
Infratest dimap	05/08/2014	31%	41%	11%	3%	4%	–	–	4%	6%
Infratest dimap	04/03/2014	33%	41%	11%	3%	4%	–	–	3%	5%
State election 2011	03/27/2011	35.7%	35.2%	15.4%	4.2%	3.0%	2.3%	1.6%	N/A	2.5%

Results

 Results for the 13 March 2016 election to the 17th Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate
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Party		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Social Democratic Party Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD	771,848	36.2	0.5	39	3
	Christian Democratic Union Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU	677,507	31.8	3.4	35	6
	Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland – AfD	268,628	12.6	12.6	14	14
	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP	132,294	6.2	2.0	7	7
	Alliance '90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	113,261	5.3	10.1	6	12
	The Left Die Linke	59,970	2.8	0.2	–	–
	Free Voters Rhineland-Palatinate Freie Wähler	47,924	2.2	0.1	–	–
	Pirate Party Piratenpartei	16,708	0.8	0.8	–	–
	Alliance for Progress and Renewal Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch – ALFA	13,154	0.6	0.6	–	–
	National Democratic Party Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD	10,565	0.5	0.6	–	–
	Ecological Democratic Party Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei – ÖDP	8,623	0.4		–	–
	The Republicans Die Republikaner – REP	5,090	0.2		–	–
	de Die Einheit	3,105	0.1	0.1	–	–
	de Der III. Weg	1,944	0.1	0.1	–	–
	Other parties	–	–	–	–	–
Valid votes		2,130,621	98.6	0.7
Invalid votes		30,885	1.4	0.7
Totals and voter turnout		2,161,506	70.4	8.6	101	–
Electorate		3,071,972	100.0	—
Source: Landeswahlleiter

Post-election

File:Landtagswahl Rheinland-Pfalz SPD Wahlparty by Olaf Kosinsky-16.jpg

Malu Dreyer photographed in the evening the state election in the boardroom of the SPD

A coalition of the existing ruling parties, the SPD and the Greens, would not have sufficient votes in the Landtag to be able to muster a majority (they would have 45 seats – 7 short of a majority). Neither would a coalition of the CDU and the returning FDP (they would have 42 seats – 10 seats short). A große Koalition (‘grand coalition’) of the SPD and CDU would have an absolute majority of 22 seats, but with the SPD having ruled out a grand coalition with Klöckner and the CDU ahead of the election, Dreyer looks most likely to work towards a "traffic light coalition," which would see the SPD, Free Democrats (FDP), and Greens join forces. These three parties would be able to form a state government with the SPD holding 39 seats, the Greens 6, and the FPD 7 – this would have a bare majority of 1 vote (52 seats) in the Landtag. A "Jamaica Coalition" of the CDU, FDP, and Greens would fall 4 seats short of the necessary majority. An unlikely, although theoretically possible, coalition between the CDU and AfD would also fall short by 3 seats in the Landtag.

Alternatively, a minority government of the SPD and Greens could take power with the "toleration" of the FDP and/or the CDU, or a FDP/SPD coalition with the toleration of the Greens and/or CDU. This has not had much of a precedent in western Germany, but is entirely possible.

External links

• Rhineland-Palatinate Electoral Office