Saxony state election, 2014

Saxony state election, 2014

31 August 2014
All 126 seats of the Landtag of Saxony 64 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	49.2%
First party Second party Third party   90px 100px Leader Stanislaw Tillich Rico Gebhardt Martin Dulig Party CDU Left SPD Last election 58 seats, 40.2% 29 seats, 20.6% 14 seats, 10.4% Seats won 59 27 18 Seat change 1 2 4 Popular vote 645,344 309,568 202,374 Percentage 39.4% 18.9% 12.4% Swing 0.8% 1.7% 2.0%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   85px 87px Leader Frauke Petry Antje Hermenau Volkmar Zschocke Holger Szymanski Party AfD Green NPD Last election Did not contest 9 seats, 6.4% 8 seats, 5.6% Seats won 14 8 0 Seat change 14 1 8 Popular vote 159,547 93,852 81,060 Percentage 9.7% 5.7% 4.95% Swing 9.7% 0.7% 0.6%   Seventh party   100px Leader Holger Zastrow Party FDP Last election 14 seats, 10.0% Seats won 0 Seat change 14 Popular vote 61,847 Percentage 3.8% Swing 6.2%
Minister-President before election Stanislaw Tillich CDU Minister-President after election Stanislaw Tillich CDU

A state election, as required by the state constitution, was held on 31 August 2014 in the state of Saxony in Germany. Minister-President Stanislaw Tillich sought to retain power.

Background

After the previous state election in 2009, the CDU emerged as the largest party and formed a coalition with the FDP, as opposed to their previous coalition partners, the SPD. Thus, before the 2014 election, the Saxony state government was the only government nationwide that involved the FDP. Due to the national decline in support for the FDP, a continuation of this coalition seemed unlikely as it was uncertain whether the FDP would reach the 5% threshold necessary to gain seats.

The largest opposition party in Saxony was the Left Party. One possible outcome, according to the polls, would have been a coalition between the Left, the SPD and the Greens; however this option was rejected by both the SPD and the Greens before the election.

For the SPD, the state election in Saxony is the second electoral test after the European elections since being involved (from 2013) at the federal level as junior partners in the coalition government. The work of the SPD in government has been perceived as positive in polls. Issues that have been worked on by the government were primarily election promises of the SPD. Despite this, all polls suggested that the SPD would be heading for another third-place finish. In Saxony, the SPD's election campaign was highly tailored to their leading candidate, Martin Dulig, whose campaign was supported his family. Dulig has also been supported by former chancellor Schröder.

The AfD was hoping to gain its first representation in a state parliament in Saxony after the party was able to achieve its strongest results nationwide in both the federal elections and European elections in Saxony. In the European elections, the party in Saxony received over 10% of the vote, compared to 7% nationwide.

In 2004, the far-right NPD secured their best ever result at a state election in Saxony. Since then, polls and election results have trended downwards with most polls suggesting the party would not cross the 5% threshold.

The Pirate Party achieved 1.9% of the vote in the previous state election. Despite early polling showing its support up to as much as 9% in Saxony, the party has since lost support and was averaging around just 2% in surveys.

Coalition talks before election

Polls suggested that the CDU would again be the largest party. The Minister-President Stanislaw Tillich (CDU) was therefore expected to lead coalition negotiations. In addition to the SPD, the Greens hoped for a coalition with the CDU, but a "black-green" coalition was considered unlikely because the Greens oppose coal mining in Saxony.

Prior to the election, Tillich could imagine a coalition with the FDP, the SPD, the Greens and the AfD. For Carsten Linnemann, the chairman of the CDU/CSU-Business Association, a coalition with the Greens was a viable alternative if the FDP did not obtain any seats. Even a coalition with the AfD was not ruled out by Tillich, although the federal head of the CDU had previously spoken out against it.

The Left was unlikely to overtake the CDU, according to polls. The party wanted to form a coalition with the SPD in particular. The SPD, however, were reluctant to critical of such an alliance. The NPD was not considered in the debate on coalitions with other parties.

Opinion polls

Pollster	Date	CDU	Left	SPD	FDP	Greens	NPD	Pirates	AfD	Others
FGW	21.08.2014	39%	20%	15%	3%	6%	5%	—	7%	5%
uniQma	18.08.2014	42%	18%	13%	3%	6%	4%	1%	6%	7%
IM Field	09.08.2014	43%	20%	14%	3%	7%	3%	—	5%	5%
INSA	09.08.2014	40%	19%	14%	5%	5%	4%	—	6%	6%
dimap	10.07.2014	42%	21%	13%	4%	7%	3%	—	7%	3%
Forsa	20.06.2014	42%	18%	15%	3%	6%	3%	—	8%	5%
uniQma	13.06.2014	45%	16%	13%	3%	6%	3%	2%	7%	5%
dimap	30.04.2014	43%	18%	16%	4%	6%	4%	—	6%	3%
dimap	29.03.2014	45%	17%	15%	4%	6%	4%	—	6%	3%
INSA	08.03.2014	43%	22%	15%	2%	5%	1%	—	7%	2%
uniQma	02.01.2014	49%	15%	17%	2%	6%	1%	2%	6%	2%
dimap	20.08.2013	45%	14%	14%	5%	11%	3%	3%	—	5%
Emnid	09.04.2013	43%	19%	16%	5%	7%	4%	4%	—	2%
TNS Infratest	08.09.2012	41%	19%	16%	4%	7%	3%	7%	—	3%
dimap	05.09.2012	44%	15%	16%	5%	8%	2%	4%	—	6%
Emnid	15.03.2012	43%	18%	14%	2%	10%	2%	9%	—	—
IfM Leipzig	16.10.2011	44%	17%	12%	2%	11%	3%	8%	—	—
dimap	24.08.2011	43%	19%	12%	6%	11%	5%	—	—	4%
aproxima	28.06.2011	42%	21%	15%	6%	8%	3%	—	—	5%
aproxima	24.08.2010	42%	23%	16%	5%	7%	4%	—	—	3%
IfM Leipzig	14.06.2010	40%	20%	16%	6%	12%	3%	—	—	3%
2009 results	30.08.2009	40.2%	20.6%	10.4%	10.0%	6.4%	5.6%	1.9%	—	4.9%

Results

 Summary of the 31 August 2014 Landtag of Saxony elections results
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Party		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Christian Democratic Union Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU	645,344	39.4	0.8	59	1
	Left Die Linke	309,568	18.9	1.7	27	2
	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD	202,374	12.4	2.0	18	4
	Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland – AfD	159,547	9.7	9.7	14	14
	Alliance '90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	93,852	5.7	0.7	8	1
	National Democratic Party of Germany Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD	81,060	5.0 (4.95)	0.6	0	8
	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP	61,847	3.8	6.2	0	14
	Other parties	83,776	5.1	1.7	0
Valid votes		1,637,364	98.7	0.5
Invalid votes		22,281	1.3	0.5
Totals and voter turnout		1,659,645	49.2	3.0	126	6
Electorate		3,375,734	100.00	—
Source: Wahlrecht.de

Government formation

The CDU formed a coalition with the SPD, as their former coalition partner, the FDP failed to win any seats. Tillich ruled out a coalition with the AfD.