1948 Republican Party presidential primaries

1948 Republican Party presidential primaries

March 9 to June 1, 1948

x160px Candidate Earl Warren Harold Stassen Robert A. Taft Home state California Minnesota Ohio Contests won 1 4 1 Popular vote 771,295 627,321 464,741 Percentage 27.0% 22.0% 16.3%   x160px Candidate Thomas E. Dewey Leverett Saltonstall Home state New York Massachusetts Contests won 2 1 Popular vote 330,799 72,191 Percentage 11.6% 2.5%

Results map by state.

Previous Republican nominee Thomas E. Dewey Republican nominee Thomas E. Dewey

From March 9 to June 1, 1948, voters of the Republican Party elected delegates to the 1948 Republican National Convention, in part to choose the party nominee for president in the 1948 United States presidential election.

The 1948 Republican National Convention was held from June 21 to June 25, 1948, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey was nominated for president and California Governor and Earl Warren was nominated for Vice President. Dewey and Warren went on to lose the general election to the Democratic Party's ticket of incumbent President Harry S. Truman and Kentucky senator Alben W. Barkley

Candidates

Both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party courted Dwight D. Eisenhower, the most popular United States general of World War II. Eisenhower's political views were unknown in 1948. He was, later events would prove, a moderate Republican, but in 1948 he flatly refused the nomination of any political party.

With Eisenhower refusing to run, the contest for the Republican nomination was between New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey, former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen, General Douglas MacArthur, Ohio Senator Robert A. Taft and California Governor Earl Warren. Governor Dewey, who had been the Republican nominee in 1944, was regarded as the frontrunner when the primaries began. Dewey was the acknowledged leader of the GOP's powerful eastern establishment; in 1946 he had been re-elected Governor of New York by the largest margin in state history. Dewey's handicap was that many Republicans disliked him; he often struck observers as cold, stiff and condescending. Senator Taft was the leader of the GOP's conservative wing. He opened his campaign in 1947 by attacking the Democratic Party's domestic policy and foreign policy. In foreign policy, Taft was a non-interventionist who opposed many of the alliances the U.S. government had made with other nations to fight the Cold War with the Soviet Union; he believed that the nation should concentrate on its own problems and avoid "imperial entanglements". On domestic issues, Taft and his fellow conservatives wanted to abolish many of the New Deal social welfare programs that had been created in the 1930s; they regarded these programs as too expensive and harmful to business interests. Taft had two major weaknesses: he was seen as a plodding, dull campaigner, and he was viewed by most party leaders as being too conservative and controversial to win a presidential election. Taft's support was limited to his native Midwestern United States and parts of the Southern United States.

The "surprise" candidate of 1948 was Stassen, the former "boy wonder" of Minnesota politics. Stassen had been elected governor of Minnesota at the age of 31; he resigned as governor in 1943 and served in the United States Navy in World War II. In 1945 he had served on the committee which created the United Nations. Stassen was widely regarded as the most "liberal" of the Republican candidates, yet as the primaries continued he was criticized for being vague on many issues.

The following political leaders were candidates for the 1948 Republican presidential nomination:

Major candidates

These candidates participated in multiple state primaries or were included in multiple major national polls.

Competing in primaries

Candidate			Most recent position	Home state	Campaign
Thomas E. Dewey			Governor of New York (1943–54)	New York	(Campaign)
Douglas MacArthur			General of the Army (1944–51)	New York
Leverett Saltonstall			U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (1945–67)	Massachusetts
Harold Stassen			Former Governor of Minnesota (1939–43)	Minnesota	(Campaign)
Robert A. Taft			U.S. Senator from Ohio (1939–53)	85x85px Ohio	(Campaign)
Arthur Vandenberg			U.S. Senator from Michigan (1928–51)	Michigan
Earl Warren	111x111px		Governor of California (1943–53)	California

Bypassing primaries

The following candidates did not actively campaign for any state's presidential primary, but may have had their name placed on the ballot by supporters or may have sought to influence to selection of un-elected delegates or sought the support of uncommitted delegates.

Candidate		Most recent position	Home state
Raymond Baldwin		U.S. Senator from Connecticut (1946–49)	Connecticut
Dwight H. Green	109x109px	Governor of Illinois (1941–49)	Illinois
Edward Martin		U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1947–59)	Pennsylvania
Joseph Martin Jr.		Speaker of the House (1947–49)	Massachusetts
B. Carroll Reece		Chairman of the RNC (1946–48)	106x106px Tennessee

Favorite sons

The following candidates ran only in their home state's primary or caucus for the purpose of controlling its delegate slate at the convention and did not appear to be considered national candidates by the media.

• Businessman Riley A. Bender of Illinois
• R.W. Hitchcock of South Dakota

Polling

National polling

Graph of opinion polls conducted

Source	Publication	Thomas Dewey	Douglas MacArthur	Leverett Saltonstall	Harold Stassen	Robert Taft	Arthur Vandenberg	Earl Warren
Gallup	Apr. 1945	59%	7%	1%	15%	2%	4%	1%
Gallup	Jan. 1946	38%	6%	2%	27%	4%	4%	1%
Gallup	Mar. 1946	37%	3%	1%	33%	3%	6%	1%
Gallup	Apr. 1946	35%	5%	1%	34%	3%	5%	–
Gallup	July 1946	38%	6%	–	28%	4%	7%	–
Gallup	July 1946	37%	4%	1%	25%	5%	8%	6%
Gallup	Oct. 1946	40%	5%	1%	22%	6%	7%	6%
Gallup	Nov. 1946	52%	2%	1%	17%	2%	9%	5%
Gallup	Feb. 1947	45%	3%	–	18%	8%	8%	3%
Gallup	Apr. 1947	51%	2%	–	15%	7%	10%	3%
Gallup	June 1947	50%	3%	–	15%	9%	9%	4%
Gallup	Jan. 1948	33%	10%	–	12%	13%	5%	5%
Gallup	Mar. 1948	37%	12%	1%	15%	12%	13%	6%
Gallup	Mar. 1948	34%	19%	1%	15%	12%	13%	3%
Gallup	Apr. 1948	29%	16%	–	31%	9%	10%	2%
Gallup	Apr. 1948	24%	12%	–	37%	8%	13%	2%
Gallup	June 1948	33%	11%	–	26%	10%	13%	2%

Source:

Primary campaign

Stassen stunned Dewey in the Wisconsin and Nebraska primaries, thus making him the frontrunner. He then made the mistake of trying to beat Senator Taft in Taft's home state of Ohio; Taft defeated Stassen on his home turf and Stassen earned the animosity of the party's conservatives. Even so, Stassen was still leading Dewey in the polls for the upcoming Oregon primary. However, Dewey, who realized that a defeat in Oregon would end his chances at the nomination, sent his powerful political organization into the state. Stassen also agreed to debate Dewey in Oregon on national radio – it was the first-ever radio debate between presidential candidates. The sole issue of the debate concerned whether to outlaw the Communist Party in the United States. Stassen, despite his liberal reputation, argued in favor of outlawing the party, while Dewey forcefully argued against it; at one point he famously stated that "you can't shoot an idea with a gun". Most observers rated Dewey as the winner of the debate, and a few days later Dewey defeated Stassen in Oregon. From that point forward, the New York governor had the momentum he needed to win his party's second nomination.

Statewide contests by winner

		Earl Warren	Harold Stassen	Robert A. Taft	Thomas E. Dewey	Riley A. Bender	Douglas MacArthur	Leverett Saltonstall	R. W. Hitchcock	Edward Martin	Arthur H. Vandenberg	Joseph W. Martin	Unpledged
March 9	New Hampshire	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	100%
April 6	Wisconsin	-	39.37%	-	25.16%	-	33.98%	-	-	-	-	-	-
April 13	Illinois (Results)	-	0.47%	0.21%	0.29%	96.90%	2.00%	-	-	-	-	-	-
April 13	Nebraska	0.95%	43.54%	11.62%	34.54%	-	3.71%	-	-	-	5.16%	0.49%	-
April 20	New Jersey	0.16%	34.79%	5.52%	41.38%	-	8.00%	-	-	-	5.75%	0.71%	-
April 27	Massachusetts	-	-	-	-	-	-	100%	-	-	-	-	-
April 27	Pennsylvania	-	31.47%	5.88%	29.82%	-	7.07%	-	-	17.46%	3.42%	-	-
May 4	Ohio	-	43.21%	56.79%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
May 11	West Virginia	-	83.17%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
May 21	Oregon	-	47.56%	-	51.79%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
June 1	California	100%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
June 1	South Dakota	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	100%	-	-	-	-

• Italics - Write-In Vote

Primaries total popular vote results:

• Earl Warren - 771,295 (26.99%)
• Harold Stassen - 627,321 (21.96%)
• Robert A. Taft - 464,741 (16.27%)
• Thomas E. Dewey - 330,799 (11.58%)
• Riley A. Bender - 324,029 (11.34%)
• Douglas MacArthur - 87,839 (3.07%)
• Leverett Saltonstall - 72,191 (2.53%)
• R. W. Hitchcock - 45,463 (1.59%)
• Edward Martin - 45,072 (1.58%)
• Unpledged delegates - 28,854 (1.01%)
• Arthur H. Vandenberg - 18,924 (0.66%)
• Dwight D. Eisenhower - 5,014 (0.18%)
• Harry S. Truman - 4,907 (0.17%)
• Henry A. Wallace - 1,452 (0.05%)
• Joseph W. Martin - 974 (0.03%)

Convention

The 1948 Republican National Convention was held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It was the first presidential convention to be shown on television. As the convention opened, Dewey was seen as having a large lead in the delegate count. His major opponents – Taft, Stassen, and Senator Arthur H. Vandenberg of Michigan – met in Taft's hotel suite to plan a "stop-Dewey" movement. However, a key obstacle soon developed when the three men refused to unite behind a single candidate to oppose Dewey. Instead, all three men simply agreed to try to hold their own delegates in the hopes of preventing Dewey from obtaining a majority. This proved to be futile, as Dewey's efficient campaign team gathered up the delegates they needed to win the nomination. After the second round of balloting, Dewey was only 33 votes short of victory. Taft then called Stassen and urged him to withdraw from the race and endorse him as Dewey's main opponent. When Stassen refused, Taft wrote a concession speech and had it read at the start of the third ballot; Dewey was then nominated by acclamation. Dewey then chose popular Governor Earl Warren of California as his running mate. Following the convention, most political experts in the news media rated the GOP ticket as an almost-certain winner over the Democrats.

The tally:

Ballot	1	2
NY Governor Thomas E. Dewey	434	515
OH Senator Robert A. Taft	224	274
Frm. MN Governor Harold Stassen	157	149
MI Senator and President pro tem Arthur Vandenberg	62	62
CA Governor Earl Warren	59	57
House Speaker Joseph Martin	18	10
General Douglas MacArthur	11	7

See also

• 1948 Democratic Party presidential primaries