1998 German federal election

1998 German federal election

27 September 1998 (1998-09-27)
All 669 seats in the Bundestag 335 seats needed for a majority
Registered	60,762,751 0.5%
Turnout	49,947,087 (82.2%) 3.2pp
First party Second party Third party   x160px x160px 160x160px Candidate Gerhard Schröder Helmut Kohl Joschka Fischer Party SPD CDU/CSU Alliance 90/The Greens Last election 36.4%, 252 seats 41.4%, 294 seats 7.3%, 49 seats Seats won 298 245 47 Seat change 46 49 2 Popular vote 20,181,269 17,329,388 3,301,624 Percentage 40.9% 35.1% 6.7% Swing 4.5pp 6.4pp 0.6pp   Fourth party Fifth party   x160px x160px Candidate Wolfgang Gerhardt Lothar Bisky Party FDP PDS Last election 6.9%, 47 seats 4.4%, 30 seats Seats won 43 36 Seat change 4 6 Popular vote 3,080,955 2,515,454 Percentage 6.2% 5.1% Swing 0.7pp 0.7pp
450px The left side shows constituency winners of the election by their party colours. The right side shows party list winners of the election for the additional members by their party colours.
Government before election Fifth Kohl cabinet CDU/CSU–FDP Government after election First Schröder cabinet SPD–Green

Federal elections were held in Germany on 27 September 1998 to elect the members of the 14th Bundestag. The Social Democratic Party emerged as the largest faction in parliament for the first time since 1972, with its leader Gerhard Schröder becoming Chancellor.

Issues and campaign

Since German reunification on 3 October 1990, the unemployment rate in Germany had risen from 4.2% to 9.4% in 1998, with the Federal Labor Office registering more than 4 million unemployed. The unified Germany had to fight economic and domestic difficulties even as it actively participated in the project of European integration. Most people blamed the centre-right coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) for the economic difficulties. Longtime Chancellor Helmut Kohl's government was regarded by many as not having fully implemented the unification after eight years, in view of the mass protests in many eastern German towns due to job losses and social welfare cuts.

The 1998 campaign began with both the CDU and SPD questioning who would lead their parties. There had been rumours that Helmut Kohl would resign and allow Wolfgang Schäuble to take the reins of the CDU but these rumours were rendered obsolete when Kohl announced in April 1997 that he would seek the chancellorship for a sixth term. The two contenders for the SPD nomination were Oskar Lafontaine, the party's chairman, and Gerhard Schröder, Minister-President of Lower Saxony.

On 1 March 1998, Schröder led the SPD to a huge victory in the Lower Saxony state election, gaining an unusual absolute majority for the second time and effectively receiving the SPD nomination for federal chancellor. Schröder had announced he would withdraw his bid for the nomination if he received below 42 percent of the popular vote. In the 1998 general elections, Schröder received 47.9 percent. Following this election Lafontaine withdrew his bid and Schröder was inaugurated in the May 1998 convention. For the SPD, Schröder offered a new face for the party. He gave the party a new vigor, one that was lacking in the CDU after Kohl proclaimed his nomination. Many in the CDU questioned if Kohl had made the right choice for the party.

The CDU campaign was based on the experience and reputation of Kohl. One of the CDU's main slogans was 'Safety, not Risks.' "Kohl exploited his familiarity and experience, as well as his status as Europe's longest serving head of government." The SPD on the other hand ran the campaign using strategies developed in the United States and the United Kingdom. The SPD set up election headquarters and introduced 'rapid rebuttal units' not unlike those used by Bill Clinton in his successful presidential bid in 1992. The SPD avoided direct attacks at Kohl but rather focused on their message of a "new center".

The FDP had usually ridden on the coattails of the CDU, and was mostly disapproved in the polls. With the SPD well ahead in the polls, many of the voters from the CDU had less incentives to vote for the FDP. The FDP was also having trouble projecting a coherent platform to voters. The Greens too were having issues concerning their platform.

The two factions in the Greens, the fundamentalists and the pragmatists, had problems settling on their platform since the founding of the Green party.

The major issue of the 1998 campaign was unemployment. In 1996, the unemployment rate in Germany surpassed the government's "limit" of 4 million unemployed people. Both parties blamed high labor costs, high taxes and the high welfare costs as the causes of the problem. During the campaign, Schröder used this issue against Kohl calling him 'the unemployment chancellor.' Unemployment was worst in the former East Germany. While the national rate stood at 9.4 percent, former East Germany was suffering with unemployment at 20 percent. Many in the former East Germany blamed Kohl for the slow economic recovery.

Another issue at hand were Germany's tax and welfare reforms. While the CDU/CSU had offered proposals to reduce benefits in healthcare and pensions, the SPD controlled Bundesrat secured the passage of the bill. The proposed bill also offered tax cuts that were to benefit the rich, something the SPD opposed. While Kohl continually pushed the issue of European integration, the issue fell short from voters' minds. Schröder, on the other hand, almost ignored the issue. Many voters in Germany had other concerns besides the European Union.

Results

300px
Party		Constituency			Party list			Total seats	+/–
		Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	Seats
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	21,535,893	43.8	212	20,181,269	40.9	86	298	+46
	Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	15,854,215	32.2	74	14,004,908	28.4	124	198	−46
	Christian Social Union (CSU)	3,602,472	7.3	38	3,324,480	6.8	9	47	−3
	Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)	2,448,162	5.0	0	3,301,624	6.7	47	47	−2
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	1,486,433	3.0	0	3,080,955	6.2	43	43	−4
	Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS)	2,416,781	4.9	4	2,515,454	5.1	32	36	+6
	The Republicans (REP)	1,115,664	2.3	0	906,383	1.8	0	0	0
	German People's Union (DVU)	–	–	–	601,192	1.2	0	0	New
	Initiative Pro D-Mark (Pro DM)	–	–	–	430,099	0.9	0	0	New
	The Grays – Gray Panthers (GRAUE)	141,763	0.3	0	152,557	0.3	0	0	0
	Human Environment Animal Protection	1,734	0.0	0	133,832	0.3	0	0	0
	National Democratic Party (NPD)	45,043	0.1	0	126,571	0.3	0	0	0
	Federation of Free Citizens – The Offensive (BFB)	134,795	0.3	0	121,196	0.2	0	0	New
	Ecological Democratic Party (ödp)	145,308	0.3	0	98,257	0.2	0	0	0
	Party of Bible-abiding Christians (PBC)	46,379	0.1	0	71,941	0.1	0	0	0
	Anarchist Pogo Party (APPD)	1,676	0.0	0	35,242	0.1	0	0	New
	Natural Law Party (Naturgesetz)	35,132	0.1	0	30,619	0.1	0	0	0
	Feminist Party (DIE FRAUEN)	3,966	0.0	0	30,094	0.1	0	0	New
	Chance 2000	3,206	0.0	0	28,566	0.1	0	0	New
	Bavaria Party (BP)	1,772	0.0	0	28,107	0.1	0	0	0
	Family Party (FAMILIE)	8,134	0.0	0	24,825	0.1	0	0	0
	Christian Centre (CM)	9,023	0.0	0	23,619	0.0	0	0	0
	Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität (BüSo)	10,260	0.0	0	9,662	0.0	0	0	0
	Party of the Non-voters (Nichtwähler)	–	–	–	6,827	0.0	0	0	New
	Car-drivers' and Citizens' Interests Party (APD)	1,458	0.0	0	6,759	0.0	0	0	0
	Party for Social Equality (PSG)	–	–	–	6,226	0.0	0	0	0
	Alliance for Germany (Deutschland)	1,946	0.0	0	6,196	0.0	0	0	New
	Party of the Willing to Work and Socially Vulnerable (PASS)	10,449	0.0	0	5,556	0.0	0	0	0
	Marxist-Leninist Party (MLPD)	7,208	0.0	0	4,731	0.0	0	0	0
	New Forum (FORUM)	6,296	0.0	0	4,543	0.0	0	0	New
	Alternative Citizens' Movement 2000 (AB 2000)	4,097	0.0	0	3,355	0.0	0	0	New
	Democratic Party (DPD)	1,172	0.0	0	2,432	0.0	0	0	New
	Humanist Party (HP)	532	0.0	0	435	0.0	0	0	0
	German Social Union (DSU)	8,180	0.0	0	–	–	–	0	0
	Statt Party (STATT)	4,406	0.0	0	–	–	–	0	0
	German Communist Party (DKP)	2,105	0.0	0	–	–	–	0	0
	Centre Party (ZENTRUM)	2,076	0.0	0	–	–	–	0	0
	Middle Class Party (DMD)	1,924	0.0	0	–	–	–	0	New
	Free Social Union (FSU)	763	0.0	0	–	–	–	0	0
	Freedom Party (FP Deutschlands)	131	0.0	0	–	–	–	0	New
	Independents and voter groups	66,026	0.1	0	–	–	–	0	0
Valid votes		49,166,580	98.4	–	49,308,512	98.7	–	–	–
Invalid/blank votes		780,507	1.6	–	638,575	1.3	–	–	–
Total votes		49,947,087	100.0	328	49,947,087	100.0	341	669	−3
Registered voters/turnout		60,762,751	82.2	–	60,762,751	82.2	–	–	–
Source: Bundeswahlleiter

↓

298	47	245	43	36
SPD	Grüne	CDU/CSU	FDP	PDS

Popular vote
SPD			40.93%
CDU/CSU			35.14%
GRÜNE			6.70%
FDP			6.25%
PDS			5.10%
REP			1.84%
DVU			1.22%
Other			2.82%

Bundestag seats
SPD			44.54%
CDU/CSU			36.62%
GRÜNE			7.03%
FDP			6.43%
PDS			5.38%

Results by state

Second vote (Zweitstimme, or votes for party list)

State results in %	SPD	CDU/CSU	GRÜNE	FDP	PDS	REP	DVU	all others
Baden-Württemberg	35.6	37.8	9.2	8.8	1.0	4.0	0.6	3.0
Bavaria	34.4	47.7	5.9	5.1	0.7	2.6	0.6	3.0
Berlin	37.8	23.7	11.3	4.9	13.5	2.4	2.1	4.3
Brandenburg	43.9	20.7	3.4	2.8	20.0	1.7	2.8	4.7
Bremen	50.2	25.4	11.3	5.9	2.4	0.7	1.7	2.4
Hamburg	45.8	30.0	10.8	6.5	2.3	0.6	2.1	1.9
Hesse	41.6	34.7	8.2	7.9	1.5	2.3	1.0	2.8
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern	35.3	29.3	3.0	2.2	23.6	0.6	2.7	3.3
Lower Saxony	49.4	34.1	5.9	6.4	1.0	0.9	0.6	1.7
North Rhine-Westphalia	46.9	33.8	6.9	7.3	1.2	1.1	0.9	1.9
Rhineland-Palatinate	41.3	39.1	6.1	7.1	1.0	2.2	0.7	2.5
Saarland	52.4	31.8	5.5	4.7	1.0	1.2	0.9	2.5
Saxony	29.1	32.7	4.4	3.7	20.0	1.9	2.6	5.6
Saxony-Anhalt	38.1	27.2	3.3	4.1	20.7	0.6	3.2	2.8
Schleswig-Holstein	45.4	35.7	6.5	7.6	1.5	0.4	1.3	1.6
Thuringia	34.5	28.9	3.9	3.4	21.2	1.6	2.9	3.6

Post-election

Results

File:1998 federal german result.svg

Seat results – SPD in red, Greens in green, PDS in purple, FDP in yellow, CDU/CSU in black

File:Bundestagswahl 1998 Wahlkreisergebnisse.svg

Result by Single-member constituency – SPD in red, PDS in purple, CDU/CSU in black

Toward the end of the campaign, polls placed the CDU/CSU and FDP coalition in a tie with the SPD and Green coalition. Despite these polls, the final numbers told a different story. The SPD-Green coalition won an unexpectedly large victory, taking 345 seats and earning a strong majority in the Bundestag—the first centre-left absolute majority in post-World War II Germany. The SPD won 40.9 percent of the vote, due to an increase of 4.5 percent from 1994.

The CDU/CSU-FDP coalition was severely mauled. It had gone into the election with a solid majority and 341 seats, but was cut down to 288 seats. The CDU/CSU was particularly hammered; it lost 6.2% of its 1994 vote, and lost 109 electoral districts to the SPD. Germany's mixed-member proportional system, in which a slate of statewide delegates are elected alongside the electorate delegates, softened the blow somewhat, so the CDU/CSU only suffered a net loss of 49 seats. It was still the CDU/CSU's worst defeat ever. By contrast their junior coalition partner, the FDP, saw their vote hold up well and netted a loss of just 4 seats.

The SPD swept all Single-member constituency seats in the states of Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Saarland, Bremen, Hamburg and (for the first and last time) Schleswig-Holstein. Chancellor Kohl lost his own constituency of Ludwigshafen, though he was still re-elected to the Bundestag through the Rhineland-Palatinate CDU party list and he had not won the seat in the 1983 and 1987 elections. Future Chancellor Angela Merkel only narrowly won her constituency of Stralsund – Rügen – Grimmen with only 37,3 percent of the vote; the only time she got less than 40 percent of the vote.

A new government was formed by a coalition between the SPD and the Greens, with the SPD's Gerhard Schröder as chancellor and Greens leader Joschka Fischer as vice-chancellor and foreign minister. It was the first Red-Green coalition government at the federal level in Germany, as well as the first purely centre-left government in post-World War II Germany.

Helmut Kohl stepped down as chairman of the CDU, as did CSU chairman Theodor Waigel.

Legacy

The 1998 German election was historic in many ways. It resulted in a centre-right government being succeeded by a left-wing one—the first in postwar Germany (the SPD's previous term in government had been at the helm of a centre-left coalition).

In addition, it brought to an end the sixteen-year rule of Helmut Kohl – the second-longest of any German chancellor, and the longest tenure for a democratically elected head of government in German history. It has been compared to the defeat of Winston Churchill in 1945 – both were seen as conservative wartime leaders, and in both cases both were turned out of office by the electorate once the war was over. Churchill was ousted before World War II was even over, while Kohl managed to hang onto power for two more terms after the reunification of Germany (which is often considered to be the end of the Cold War).

References

• "Social Democrats win German elections." Europe Oct. 1998 LexisNexis Academic. Leslie F. Maplass Library, Macomb, IL.
• The Federal Returning Officer