2014–16 El Niño event

2014–16 El Niño event

File:NOAA-CPC-NWS-NOAA SST Anoms 2015.jpg The SST Anomalies Average for 11 October 2015 to 7 November 2015
Formed	Summer 2014
Dissipated	Ongoing
Damage	Significant
Areas affected	The Pacific Ocean and surrounding areas

The 2014–16 El Niño was a warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that has resulted in unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. These unusually warm waters had influenced the world's weather. More tropical cyclones occurred in the Pacific Ocean, while fewer tropical cyclones occurred in the Atlantic Ocean.

Meteorological progression

The 1997–98 El Niño event was regarded as one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history, which resulted in widespread drought, flooding and other natural disasters occurring across the globe. Afterwards the climate of the Pacific Ocean was dominated by a cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation, with three significant La Niña events occurring between 1998–2001, 2007–09 and 2010–12. Despite the La Niña background to the Pacific Climate, four El Niño events occurred during 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, and 2009–10, but each was weaker and had shorter impacts than the 1997-98 event. After the 2010–12 La Niña event had ended, near-neutral conditions persisted over the Pacific Ocean with no La Niña or El Niño events occurring. An intense burst of typhoon activity subsequently took place between September and November 2013, which was thought to possibly be a precursor signal to an impending change of the Pacific climate towards El Niño rather than La Niña.

Between January and April 2014, the climate of the Pacific Ocean started to exhibit features suggesting the impending onset of an El Niño event. Over the ocean, these features included: a rapid fall of the sea level in western Micronesia, as well as a large area of enhanced sea surface temperatures, at low latitudes near the International Date Line. In the atmosphere these features included persistent westerly winds at equatorial latitudes, which were displaced eastwards towards the Marshall Islands. A large area of atmospheric convection at a low latitude near the International Dateline, in association with the development, of an unusual amount of early season tropical cyclones near the Marshall Islands. After surveying various climate models, the World Meteorological Organization started to warn during January 2014, that there was an enhanced possibility of a weak El Niño event happening during 2014. As a result of some of these conditions, an El Niño Watch was issued by the United States Climate Prediction Center (CPC) during their March 2014 diagnostic discussion.

Over the next few months, the atmosphere failed to respond in order to reinforce the developing El Niño, with the monsoon trough remaining weak and tropical cyclone activity slowing, while no episodes of strong westerly winds at a low latitude occurred. Some of the oceanic indicators of El Niño also failed to develop further, with a cooling of sea and sub surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific occurring. However, by the end of 2014, several of the El Niño indexes that were used to judge the state of the ENSO state, indicated that a weak El Nino conditions had developed over the Pacific Ocean. As a result a few of the international meteorological agencies, including the Japan Meteorological Agency reported that an El Niño event had developed during 2014. At this time it was thought that the ENSO state would continue to hover at the borderline El Nino conditions before easing back into neutral ENSO conditions. However, after Typhoon Higos developed during February 2015, a new forecast scenario opened: El Niño might strengthen and persist through 2015. This scenario was supported by the same climate features that had predicted the weak El Niño developing during 2014. During early March, a major westerly wind burst occurred which led to the formation of Tropical Storm Bavi and Cyclone Pam.

By January 2015, westerly wind burst activity picked up again. The first Kelvin wave developed around March and another formed around May. In addition, another strong westerly wind burst event took place around July as a result of twin tropical cyclones straddling the equator. An even stronger event in October, and an ongoing unusually stronger event during late December 2015 into January 2016, also resulted from twin cyclones on opposite sides of the equator. In March and May 2015, both NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology respectively confirmed the arrival of weak El Niño conditions. El Niño conditions were forecast in July to intensify into strong conditions by fall and winter of 2015. In July the NOAA CPC expected a greater than 90% chance that El Niño would continue through the 2015-2016 winter and more than 80% chance to last into the 2016 spring. In addition to the warmer than normal waters generated by the El Niño conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was also creating persistently higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific. In August, the NOAA CPC predicted that the 2015 El Niño "could be among the strongest in the historical record dating back to 1950." In mid November, NOAA reported that the temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region for the 3 month average from August to October 2015 was the 2nd warmest on record with only 1997 warmer.

In August 2015, the CPC reported that this El Niño was one of the strongest on record. August 2015 monthly sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region already nudged slightly ahead of 1997 values for the warmest in the modern era.

In January 2016, NOAA noted that the 3 month average from October to December 2015 tied 1997 for the strongest El Niño event reading on record. By March 2016, the El Niño had begun to steadily weaken, with NOAA forecasters noting the possibility of La Niña by fall 2016. Steadly weakening continued, which led the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to call that El Niño ended in late May 2016.

According to weather forecasters, the El Niño might have gotten started as an El Niño Modoki in 2014.

Effects on tropical cyclone activity

The 2014–16 El Niño event influenced tropical cyclone activity around the world, where it contributed to record breaking seasons in the Central Pacific and Australian tropical cyclone basins. Within the Atlantic Ocean; producing strong vertical wind shear, increased atmospheric stability, stronger sinking motion and drier air across the tropical Atlantic. The El Niño event also influenced activity within the Pacific Ocean, with the Central Pacific basin having its most active tropical cyclone season on record with 16 tropical cyclones recorded during 2015. Within the Southern Hemisphere, the El Niño pushed tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific Ocean eastwards, with activity flourishing near Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga. As a result of this displacement and other factors such as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the 2015–16 Australian region cyclone season was the least active since reliable records started during 1950s, with only three named tropical cyclones developing in the region compared to an average of eleven.

The event also contributed to six systems forming outside of the season boundaries, within the North Atlantic, Eastern and Southern Pacific basins. These systems included Tropical Cyclone Raquel which was considered by some to be a part of the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, but was later confirmed to only be a part of the 2014-15 season. Tropical Depressions 01F and 02F developed in the South Pacific during July and October 2015, with both impacting the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. Tropical Depression Nine-C subsequently formed in the Central Pacific on 30 December, which in turn contributed to the development of Hurricane Pali on 7 January after it had dissipated during 1 January. This also caused the latest end and earliest start to the 2015 and 2016 Pacific hurricane seasons. The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season also got off to an early start with Hurricane Alex, which formed on 13 January in the North-eastern Atlantic.

Other significant tropical cyclones during the event included: Cyclone Pam which became the second most intense tropical cyclone in the South Pacific in terms of barometric pressure, Cyclone Winston which devastated Fiji, Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala which was the strongest storm in terms of wind-speed in the South Indian Ocean, and Hurricane Patricia which was the second-strongest tropical cyclone on record globally.

Impact

The El Niño event had an impact on millions of people around the world, including in Africa, Central America, South-east Asia and the Pacific Islands. These impacts included below or above-average rainfall, flooding, increased food insecurity, higher malnutrition rates and devastated livelihoods. More than 60 million people face hunger, malnutrition in 2016 due to drought effects influenced by ENSO, with Africa worst hit, Indochina facing severe drop in food production, and Ethiopia counting 10 million people at risk.

Galapagos Islands

The El Niño had a large affect on the islands iconic population of Blue-footed booby's as changing ocean currents forced the sea birds primary food source consisting of sardines away from the island.

Micronesia

As the El Niño conditions started to develop during early 2014 sea levels in western Micronesia including in waters surrounding Palau and Guam dropped by 6–9 feet (1.8–2.7 m). In Palau, the El Niño resulted in the worst drought conditions in nearly eighty years. The island nations of Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands made emergency or disaster declarations due to extreme drought conditions from the El Niño.

South Africa

The severe reduction in rainfall lead to many livestock deaths in the Free State province of South Africa. It is also having an adverse effect on maize production in South Africa as the region is one of the country's leading maize producers.

Brazil

In 2015, the Southeast Region of Brazil suffered the consequences of a severe drought (aggravated by El Niño), which led to above-average temperatures and a large decline in the level of several rivers and reservoirs; as a result, residents had to save water and cutoffs were made. However, at the same time, the South Region passed by a large period of severe thunderstorms (another consequence of El Niño), which led to strong floods; several rivers reached the highest level in decades and thousands of people were left homeless.

New Zealand

The 2014–2016 El Niño was expected to be as serious as the 1997–1998 El Niño in New Zealand, with drier weather in summer, a cooler winter and a stormy and windy spring. Agriculture will be significantly affected, with rainfall reduced by 15% on the East Coast of both islands, and increased on the West Coast.

Philippines

In the Philippines, effects of El Niño will continue from the middle of 2015 to 2016, and many provinces will experience drought until April 2016. On Maguindanao, many rice and corn fields are destroyed by the drought brought by El Niño, and soon, the provincial government declared a state of calamity on the province. Earlier, North Cotabato declared a state of calamity, and the provincial government's aid to the farmers suffering from the drought caused a protest and a clash with police in Kidapawan.

Other provinces that declared state of calamity are as follows:

• Iloilo
• Guimaras
• General Santos City
• Isabela
• Quirino
• Bukidnon
• Davao del Sur
• Basilan
• Bohol
• Cebu

United States

During the winter of 2014-15, the typical precipitation and impacts of an El Niño event, did not occur over the United States, as the event was weak and on the borderline of being an event.

In January 2016, Pacifica, California declared a local emergency after El Niño storms damaged the coastline and bluff, forcing residents of the nearby apartment to evacuate due to the crumbling cliffside. Also, Cape Coral, Fort Myers and areas in and around Sarasota, Florida received its first tornados in 20 years, with the three towns being under tornado warnings twice in one month, during the January 9 and the January 15-17 events. All three areas had never seen tornados in at least 20 years.

In April 2016, the city of Houston, Texas suffered excessive rainfall and flooding, which have been linked to El Niño.