2018 United States Senate election in Missouri
From Infogalactic: the planetary knowledge core
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270px County results
Hawley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% McCaskill: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 80–90% |
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Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2018 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections, including Missouri's quadrennial State Auditor election.
Incumbent senator Claire McCaskill ran for re-election in a primary field of eight Democrats. Eleven Republicans vied for their party's nomination which went to State Attorney General Josh Hawley, who filed notification in August, 2017, that he had formed an exploratory campaign committee for the seat.[2][3]
The candidate filing deadline was March 27, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 7, 2018.[4] On November 6, 2018, Hawley was elected with 51.5% of the vote, to McCaskill's 45.4%, resulting in Republicans holding both Senate seats in Missouri for the first time since McCaskill took office in 2007.[5]
Contents
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Claire McCaskill, incumbent U.S. Senator[6][7]
Eliminated in primary
- Angelica Earl, former insurance verification specialist[8]
- David Faust[9]
- Travis Gonzalez, perennial candidate[9]
- John Hogan, perennial candidate[9]
- Leonard Steinman, perennial candidate[9]
- Carla (Coffee) Wright
Endorsements
| Claire McCaskill |
|---|
|
Results
File:2018 MO US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
McCaskill
-
80–90%
-
70–80%
-
60–70%
-
50–60%
| Democratic primary results[32] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Democratic | Claire McCaskill (incumbent) | 501,872 | 82.60% | |
| Democratic | Carla Wright | 41,126 | 6.77% | |
| Democratic | John Hogan | 15,984 | 2.63% | |
| Democratic | David Faust | 15,958 | 2.63% | |
| Democratic | Angelica Earl | 15,500 | 2.55% | |
| Democratic | Travis Gonzalez | 9,480 | 1.56% | |
| Democratic | Leonard Steinman | 7,657 | 1.26% | |
| Total votes | 607,577 | 100% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Josh Hawley, Missouri Attorney General[33]
Eliminated in primary
- Austin Petersen, businessman and Libertarian candidate for presidential nomination in 2016[34][35]
- Brian Hagg[9]
- Bradley Krembs[9]
- Tony Monetti, retired bomber pilot and assistant dean of aviation at University of Central Missouri[36]
- Kristi Nichols, activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2016[9]
- Ken Patterson, candidate for St. Louis County Executive in 2010[9]
- Peter Pfeifer[9]
- Fred Ryman, Constitution nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[9]
- Christina Smith[9]
- Courtland Sykes, veteran and former congressional aide[37]
Withdrew
Declined
- Ann Wagner, U.S. Representative and former U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg[39]
- Aaron Hedlund, economics professor[40]
- Paul Curtman, state representative[41][42]
- Eric Greitens, former Governor of Missouri[43][44][45]
- Vicky Hartzler, U.S. Representative[46]
- Todd Richardson, Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives[47]
- Eric Schmitt, state treasurer[48]
- David Wasinger, attorney[49][50]
- Marsha Haefner, state representative[51]
- Ed Martin, former chairman of the Missouri Republican Party, nominee for MO-03 in 2010 and nominee for attorney general in 2012[45]
Endorsements
| Josh Hawley |
|---|
|
| Austin Petersen |
|---|
|
| Tony Monetti |
|---|
|
| Courtland Sykes |
|---|
|
Debates
| Host network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hawley |
Austin Petersen |
Courtland Sykes |
Tony Monetti |
Peter Pfeifer |
Kirsti Nichols |
|||
| America First Missouri | May 11, 2018 | [144] | Absent | Present | Present | Present | Present | Present |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Josh Hawley |
Austin Petersen |
Courtland Sykes |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[permanent dead link] | April 26–29, 2018 | 283 | ± 6.0% | 37% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 45% |
|
Hypothetical polling |
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Results
File:2018 MO US Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
Hawley
-
60–70%
-
50–60%
-
40–50%
Monetti
-
40–50%
| Republican primary results[32] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Josh Hawley | 389,878 | 58.64% | |
| Republican | Tony Monetti | 64,834 | 9.75% | |
| Republican | Austin Petersen | 54,916 | 8.26% | |
| Republican | Kristi Nichols | 49,640 | 7.47% | |
| Republican | Christina Smith | 35,024 | 5.27% | |
| Republican | Ken Patterson | 19,579 | 2.95% | |
| Republican | Peter Pfeifer | 16,594 | 2.50% | |
| Republican | Courtland Sykes | 13,870 | 2.09% | |
| Republican | Fred Ryman | 8,781 | 1.32% | |
| Republican | Brian Hagg | 6,871 | 1.03% | |
| Republican | Bradley Krembs | 4,902 | 0.74% | |
| Total votes | 664,889 | 100% | ||
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Japheth Campbell, entrepreneur[145]
Withdrew
Declined
- Alicia Dearn, attorney and candidate for Vice President of the United States in 2016[147]
- Austin Petersen, Libertarian candidate for President of the United States in 2016 (running as a Republican)[148]
Results
File:2018 MO US Senate Libertarian primary.svg
Results by county:
Campbell
-
100%
No votes
-
No votes
| Libertarian primary results[32] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Libertarian | Japheth Campbell | 5,380 | 100% | |
| Total votes | 5,380 | 100% | ||
Green primary
Candidates
Nominated
- Jo Crain
Eliminated in primary
- Jerome Bauer
Results
File:2018 MO US Senate Green primary.svg
Results by county:
Crain
-
100%
-
80–90%
-
70–80%
-
60–70%
-
50–60%
Crain/Bauer tie
-
50%
Bauer
-
50–60%
-
60–70%
-
70–80%
-
80–90%
-
100%
No votes
-
No votes
| Green primary results[32] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Green | Jo Crain | 906 | 57.67% | |
| Green | Jerome Bauer | 665 | 42.33% | |
| Total votes | 1,571 | 100% | ||
Independents
Candidates
Declared
- Craig O'Dear, attorney[149]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[150] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[151] | Tilt R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[152] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[153] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[154] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[155] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[156] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[157] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 18, 2018
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Claire McCaskill (D) | $35,361,401 | $33,594,412 | $1,789,381 |
| Josh Hawley (R) | $10,221,143 | $7,376,209 | $2,844,933 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[158] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Claire McCaskill (D) |
Josh Hawley (R) |
Japheth Campbell (L) |
Craig O'Dear (I) |
Jo Crain (G) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | – | – | – | – |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 29 – November 4, 2018 | 1,791 | ± 2.3% | 44% | 48% | – | – | – | 4% | 3% |
| Emerson College | November 1–3, 2018 | 732 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 49% | – | – | – | 3% | 3% |
| HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | November 1–2, 2018 | 1,424 | ± 2.6% | 47% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Marist College | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 LV | ± 5.2% | 47% | 44% | 3% | – | 2% | <1% | 4% |
| 50% | 47% | – | – | – | <1% | 3% | ||||
| 920 RV | ± 4.1% | 46% | 43% | 3% | – | 2% | 1% | 6% | ||
| 50% | 46% | – | – | – | 1% | 4% | ||||
| HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | – | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 46% | 44% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Fox News | October 27–30, 2018 | 741 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 43% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 9% |
| 45% | 45% | – | – | – | 2% | 8% | ||||
| 851 RV | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 10% | ||
| 43% | 44% | – | – | – | 3% | 9% | ||||
| Cygnal (R) | October 26–27, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | – | – | – | 1% | 3% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | October 24–25, 2018 | 1,376 | ± 2.6% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | October 17–18, 2018 | 1,215 | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | 2% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley) | October 16–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 49% | – | – | – | 4% | 5% |
| The Polling Company (R-Citizens United) | October 11–13, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 50% | – | – | – | 0% | 3% |
| Ipsos | September 27 – October 7, 2018 | 1,111 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 45% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 6% |
| 1st Tuesday Campaigns | October 5–6, 2018 | 1,052 | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 11% |
| Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 683 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 43% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| 46% | 46% | – | – | – | 3% | 5% | ||||
| 805 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 41% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 9% | ||
| 44% | 44% | – | – | – | 3% | 8% | ||||
| McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 52% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Vox Populi Polling | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 51% | – | – | – | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS | September 25–29, 2018 | 756 LV | ± 4.3% | 47% | 44% | 3% | – | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| 906 RV | ± 3.9% | 43% | 42% | 4% | – | 2% | 0% | 6% | ||
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | September 26–27, 2018 | 1,555 | ± 2.5% | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| YouGov | September 10–14, 2018 | 917 | – | 45% | 45% | – | – | – | 4% | 6% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 11–13, 2018 | 1,724 | ± 2.4% | 44% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 8% |
| Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 675 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| 45% | 45% | – | – | – | 3% | 7% | ||||
| 808 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 39% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 11% | ||
| 42% | 43% | – | – | – | 3% | 10% | ||||
| Marist College | August 25–28, 2018 | 568 LV | ± 4.8% | 44% | 40% | 5% | – | 3% | <1% | 8% |
| 47% | 47% | – | – | – | 1% | 5% | ||||
| 774 RV | ± 4.2% | 43% | 39% | 6% | – | 3% | <1% | 8% | ||
| 46% | 47% | – | – | – | 1% | 5% | ||||
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) | August 12–14, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 48% | – | – | – | 3% | 8% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | August 8–9, 2018 | 1,785 | ± 2.3% | 47% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) | July 10–12, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | – | 4% | 11% |
| The Missouri Times/Remington (R) | July 7–8, 2018 | 1,034 | ± 3.2% | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,038 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 4% |
| McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) | June 2018 | – | – | 46% | 42% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) | June 11–13, 2018 | 804 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen) | May 16, 2018 | 822 | ± 3.4% | 43% | 50% | – | – | – | – | 7% |
| Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) | May 9–10, 2018 | 898 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 8% |
| Emerson College[permanent dead link] | April 26–29, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.2% | 45% | 45% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
| Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) | April 19–20, 2018 | 1,542 | ± 2.5% | 48% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 8% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley) | April 16–18, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | – | – | – | – | 7% |
| Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) | April 9–12, 2018 | – | – | 46% | 44% | – | – | – | – | – |
| Mason-Dixon | April 4–6, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing | March 5–7, 2018 | 931 | ± 3.2% | 42% | 40% | – | – | – | – | 18% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 1,938 | ± 3.6% | 44% | 52% | – | – | – | – | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-TMI) | January 8–9, 2018 | 965 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 44% | – | – | – | – | 11% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | January 3–4, 2018 | 1,122 | ± 2.9% | 45% | 49% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | October 11–12, 2017 | 965 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 48% | – | – | – | – | 7% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | August 16–18, 2017 | 922 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 50% | – | – | – | – | 5% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R) | July 10–11, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 46% | – | – | – | – | 12% |
| Missouri Scout/Remington (R) | July 7–8, 2017 | 928 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 50% | – | – | – | – | 6% |
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Hypothetical polling |
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Results
Sen. McCaskill conceded a few hours after the polls closed on Election day. She ran well behind her 2012 vote in Southeast Missouri, especially in the Lead Belt and the Missouri Bootheel. She also ran poorly in the northern part of the state and in the St. Louis suburbs.[159] Despite McCaskill's loss, Missouri Democrats held the other statewide office that went up for election in this cycle, the office of Missouri State Auditor. Democratic incumbent state auditor Nicole Galloway, who had been appointed to the post in 2015 by then-Gov. Jay Nixon following a vacancy, won a full term in the 2018 State Auditor election.[160]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Josh Hawley | 1,254,927 | 51.38% | +12.27% | |
| Democratic | Claire McCaskill (incumbent) | 1,112,935 | 45.57% | -9.24% | |
| Independent | Craig O'Dear | 34,398 | 1.41% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Japheth Campbell | 27,316 | 1.12% | -4.95% | |
| Green | Jo Crain | 12,706 | 0.52% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 7 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,442,289 | 100% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
References
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Josh Hawley Senate Exploratory Committee, Federal Elections Commission. Retrieved July 29, 2018.
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- ↑ Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to McCaskill.
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- ↑ Legalize Machine Guns with Austin Petersen on Facebook
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- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ RELEASE: Petersen Trailblazing New Way to Connect to Voters in Missouri Archived April 21, 2018, at the Wayback Machine[not in citation given]
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.[permanent dead link]
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ [1][not in citation given]
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ https://stlouis.cbslocal.com/audio/overnight-america/
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ http://monetti4senate.com
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 146.0 146.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at Center for Responsive Politics
- Official campaign websites
Categories:
- Webarchive template wayback links
- All articles with failed verification
- Articles with failed verification from May 2018
- Articles with invalid date parameter in template
- Articles with dead external links from August 2018
- Articles with permanently dead external links
- Articles with failed verification from August 2018
- Use American English from January 2018
- All Wikipedia articles written in American English
- Use mdy dates from January 2018
- Pages with broken file links
- Articles with dead external links from September 2019
- United States Senate elections in Missouri
- 2018 United States Senate elections
- 2018 Missouri elections
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