2019 European Parliament election

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2019 European Parliament election
← 2014 23–26 May 2019[1][2] 2024 →
All 751 seats to the European Parliament
376 seats needed for a majority
  150x150px 150x150px JanZahradil.jpg
Leader Manfred Weber Frans Timmermans Jan Zahradil
Alliance EPP S&D ECR
Leader's seat Germany Netherlands Czech Republic
Last election 221 seats 191 seats 70 seats
Current seats 217 187 76
  Guy Verhofstadt die 30 Martis 2012.jpg
Leader Guy Verhofstadt Violeta Tomić
Nico Cué		 Bas Eickhout
Ska Keller
Alliance ALDE EUL–NGL Greens–European Free Alliance
Leader's seat Belgium (Dutch-speaking college) Slovenia
Belgium (French-speaking college)		 Netherlands
Germany
Last election 67 seats 52 seats 50 seats
Current seats 68 52 52
  Nigel Farage MEP 1, Strasbourg - Diliff.jpg
Leader Nigel Farage[3] Nicolas Bay
Marcel de Graaff
Alliance EFDD ENF
Leader's seat South East England North West France
Netherlands
Last election 48 seats N/A
Current seats 41 37
Incumbent President of the European Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker
EPP


European Union
Flag of the European Union

This article is part of a series on the
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of the European Union
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The next elections to the European Parliament are expected to be held between 23 and 26 May 2019. A total of 751 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) currently represent more than 512 million people from 28 member states. In February 2018, the European Parliament voted to decrease the number of MEPs from 751 to 705 if the United Kingdom were to withdraw from the European Union on 29 March 2019.[4] However after an extension of the Article 50 process, the United Kingdom is now due to participate alongside other EU member states.[5]

New law

According to the European Council, on 7 June 2018 the Council agreed at ambassador level to improve the EU electoral law and to reform old laws from the 1976 Electoral Act.

The purpose of the reform would be to improve participation in elections, raise understanding of their European character and prevent irregular voting while at the same time respecting the constitutional and electoral traditions of the member states.[6]

The proposed draft would forbid "double voting" and voting in third countries, thus improving the visibility of European political parties.[6] To avoid double voting, contact authorities would be established to exchange data on voters. This process would have to start at least six weeks before the EP elections.[6]

The European Parliament gave its consent on 4 July 2018 and the Act was adopted by the Council on 13 July 2018. It will come into effect following ratification by the Member States.[7]

Parties and candidates

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See also: Spitzenkandidat

The Spitzenkandidat process involves the nomination by European political parties of candidates for the role of Commission President, the party winning the most seats in Parliament receiving the first opportunity to attempt to form a majority in Parliament to back their candidate (akin to how Prime Ministers are elected in national parliamentary democracies). This process was first used in 2014 and was opposed by some in the Council. The future of the process is uncertain, but the Parliament has attempted to codify the process and the parties are almost certain to select the candidates again.[8] On 23 January 2018, the Constitutional Affairs Committee adopted a text stating that the Spitzenkandidat process could not be overturned, and that Parliament "will be ready to reject any candidate in the investiture procedure of the commission president who was not appointed as a Spitzenkandidat in the run-up to the European elections".[9]

In May 2018, a Eurobarometer poll suggested that 49% of the 27,601 individuals from all 28 EU countries surveyed think that the Spitzenkandidats process will help them vote in the next European elections while 70% also think that the process requires a "real debate" on European issues.[10]

European People's Party

Incumbent Jean-Claude Juncker has stated he will not seek a second term as President.[11]

Two candidates sought the nomination of the EPP:

At their 2018 Congress in Helsinki, the EPP elected Manfred Weber as their Spitzenkandidat for President of the European Commission.[14]

Party of European Socialists

Previous candidate Martin Schulz left the European Parliament in 2017 to head the Social Democratic Party of Germany, but has stepped down from the latter position in 2018.

Two candidates were nominated by PES member parties and organizations:

  • Maroš Šefčovič (Vice-President of the Commission) announced in September bid to head Commission.[15]
  • Frans Timmermans (first Vice-President of the Commission, previous Dutch Foreign Affairs Minister) announced in October bid to head Commission.[16]

Šefčovič announced his withdrawal in November and supported Frans Timmermans as the Common Candidate.[17]

The party will convene an extraordinary Congress in Lisbon to ratify the election of the candidate and to vote upon the manifesto.

European Conservatives and Reformists

Jan Zahradil, an MEP for the Czech Civic Democratic Party, is the Spitzenkandidat of the European Conservatives and Reformists.

European Green Party

Like in 2014, the Greens adopted the principle to have two leading candidates for the European Elections 2019.[18] Unlike in 2014 where the candidates were chosen through an open online primary elections, the two leading candidates will be elected by the Council of the Party in Berlin in November 2018.[19] Four people, two of them being currently MEPs, have declared their candidacy:[19]

At their 2018 Congress in Berlin, the party elected Ska Keller and Bas Eickhout as their Spitzenkandidat for the President of the European Commission.

Alliance of Liberals and Democrats

  • Guy Verhofstadt (President of the ALDE group, MEP and former Prime Minister of Belgium)
  • Sylvie Goulard (Deputy Governor at Banque de France, former French Minister of the Armed Services and MEP).[20]
  • Margrethe Vestager (Commissioner for Competition, previous Danish Minister for Economy and Interior).[20][21][22]
  • Cecilia Malmström (Commissioner for Trade, previous Commissioner for Home Affairs and Swedish Minister for European Affairs).[20]
  • Hans van Baalen (President of the ALDE Party, MEP and previous president of the Liberal International).[23]
  • Emma Bonino (Former European Commissioner for Health and Consumer Protection, former Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs)
  • Violeta Bulc (Commissioner for Transport, former Deputy Prime Minister of Slovenia)

Party of the European Left

The designated candidates are Violeta Tomič from Slovenia and Belgian trade-unionist Nico Cué.[24]

New parties

The year 2019 will see the debut of new parties such as Kukiz'15 and Spring of Poland, Czech Pirate Party of Czech Republic, Alliance and Liberal Initiative of Portugal, USR and PLUS of Romania, LMŠ of Slovenia, Human Shield, Most and Workers' Front of Croatia, L'SNS and Sme Rodina of Slovakia. For the liberals, the biggest hope is that the new La République En Marche! party of French President Emmanuel Macron will choose to join ALDE after the elections.[25][26][27] However, En Marche is expected to be more likely to try to form a new parliamentary group of pro-European centrists who support Macron's plans to reform the European institutions, thus drawing away members from ALDE, EPP and S&D.[28][29] Possible partners for such a project might include Spanish Ciudadanos, Progressive Slovakia and the Hungarian Momentum Movement.[28] While it is likely that En Marche will put together the minimum of 25 MEPs needed to form a group, the requirement to include MEPs from at least seven member states would be more difficult.[28]

The European Spring initiated from the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 will run as a pan-European party alliance with one unified vision for Europe, the European Green New Deal.[30] The most prominent figure is the former Greek minister Yanis Varoufakis, who will run as candidate in the constituency of Germany.

Volt Europa, a pan-European progressive movement, will run in several countries under the same name in the attempt to form its own group.[citation needed]

The leader of the Italian Five Star Movement has expressed a desire to form an anti-establishment faction of their own within the EU.[31]

Pablo Iglesias, Catarina Martins, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and several others have formed an alliance in Maintenant le Peuple opposed to the PEL, but they are likely remain in GUE/NGL.[citation needed]

The Movement is an alliance of right-wing populist parties set up by Steve Bannon with the purpose of contesting the European elections. Participating parties include Lega Nord, People's Party of Belgium and Brothers of Italy, and possibly French National Rally. Originally envisioned as an attempt to unite the right-wing populist parties in Europe, The Movement has so far been snubbed by the Alternative for Germany,[32] the Freedom Party of Austria[33] and the UK Independence Party.[34]

Televised debates

Date Time (CEST) Institute Participants Location Language Main Presenter(s)
17 April 2019 21:00 France 24 and RFI[35] Timmermans and Weber Strasbourg French Caroline de Camaret (France 24) and Dominique Baillard (RFI)
17 April 2019 22:00 France 24[36][37] Timmermans and Weber Strasbourg English Catherine Nicholson (France 24)

Apportionment of seats

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See also: Impact of Brexit on the European Union § European Parliament seats

If the United Kingdom leaves the European Union before the newly-elected MEPs are seated on 1 July 2019, the numbers of seats will be altered to what is considered by the S&D co-rapporteur Pedro Silva Pereira as "a fairer allocation of seats, finally complying with the Lisbon Treaty and the principle of degressive proportionality".[38]

Apportionment in the European Parliament
Country 2007 2009 Dec.

2011[39]

 July
2013		 2014 Proposals for 2019 after the
removal of UK seats[40][41]
Cambridge Compromise Decision
(Feb 2018)		 Change
from 2014
Minimising
Gini		 Minimising
malapportionment
 Germany 99 99 99 99 96 96 96 96 Steady
 France 78 72 74 74 74 79 96 79 Increase 5
 United Kingdom 78 72 73 73 73 73 73 73
 Italy 78 72 73 73 73 73 89 76 Increase 3
 Spain 54 50 54 54 54 57 70 59 Increase 5
 Poland 54 50 51 51 51 47 58 52 Increase 1
 Romania 35 33 33 33 32 27 33 33 Increase 1
 Netherlands 27 25 26 26 26 24 29 29 Increase 3
 Belgium 24 22 22 22 21 18 21 21 Steady
 Czech Republic 24 22 22 22 21 17 20 21 Steady
 Greece 24 22 22 22 21 17 20 21 Steady
 Hungary 24 22 22 22 21 16 19 21 Steady
 Portugal 24 22 22 22 21 17 20 21 Steady
 Sweden 19 18 20 20 20 16 19 21 Increase 1
 Austria 18 17 19 19 18 15 18 19 Increase 1
 Bulgaria 18 17 18 18 17 13 15 17 Steady
 Denmark 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 14 Increase 1
 Finland 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 14 Increase 1
 Slovakia 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 14 Increase 1
 Ireland 13 12 12 12 11 11 12 13 Increase 2
 Croatia – – – 12 11 10 11 12 Increase 1
 Lithuania 13 12 12 12 11 9 9 11 Steady
 Latvia 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 Steady
 Slovenia 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 Steady
 Estonia 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 Increase 1
 Cyprus 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 Steady
 Luxembourg 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Steady
 Malta 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Steady
Total 785 736 754 766 751 639 736 705 27

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Main article: Apportionment in the European Parliament

Decisions on the apportionment of seats in the Parliament are governed by article 14 of the Treaty of Lisbon. This article lays down that "[t]he European Parliament shall be composed of representatives of the Union's citizens. They shall not exceed seven hundred and fifty in number, plus the President. Representation of citizens shall be degressively proportional, with a minimum threshold of six members per Member State. No Member State shall be allocated more than ninety-six seats".

Due to the Brexit process, the United Kingdom's 73 MEPs were expected to be removed a few months before the 2019 European Parliament election, but this now looks unlikely to happen because of the Brexit extension until October 31. In April 2017, a group of European lawmakers discussed what should be done about the vacated seats. One plan, supported by Enrico Letta, Gianni Pittella and Emmanuel Macron, was to replace the 73 seats with a pan-European constituency list. Other options which were considered include dropping the British seats without replacement and reassigning some or all of the existing seats from other countries to reduce inequality of representation.[40]

A plan to reduce the number of seats to 705 was approved by the Parliament in February 2018. It involves redistributing 27 seats to under-represented members and reserving the remaining 46 for future EU expansions. A proposal by the Constitutional Affairs Committee to create a pan-member constituency was rejected by the Parliament at the same time.[4]

In January 2018, the French government unveiled a bill which would switch the country from using regional constituencies to a single nationwide constituency.[42]

The allocation of seats for Ireland increased from 11 to 13. There had been a proposal that the two additional seats be allocated to Irish citizens living in Northern Ireland. This was supported by Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party, and also by Guy Verhofstadt, but was strongly resisted by the Democratic Unionist Party.[43] Danuta Hübner (Committee on Constitutional Affairs) said: "It is amazing what you are saying because it is the Republic of Ireland which is against this idea of giving the right to vote to nationals in third countries – so we have a problem here".[43] The two additional seats were instead allocated to two of the three constituencies in Ireland, with a special provision that the last candidate elected in these constituencies be designated to account for circumstances where the United Kingdom had not left the European Union at the time of the sitting of the Parliament.

Seat projections

There are no pan-European polls for the European elections in all 27/28 member states. There are, however, several organisations calculating the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament based on national polls in all member states. The table below displays these different projections.

Since the United Kingdom notified its intention to leave the European Union in March 2017, the United Kingdom was expected not to participate in the European elections and was therefore excluded from projections. Due to recent political developments, some organisations have started providing projections for a 'with-UK' scenario. On 10 April 2019, the European Council extended the Brexit deadline to 31 October 2019, or the first day of the month after that in which the Withdrawal Agreement is passed, whichever comes first. Consequently, the UK will probably have to participate in the European elections (23-26.05.19), unless an agreement in the UK Parliament is reached. The political and legal situation remains highly uncertain.[44]

Opinion polls by number of seats
Institute Date EPP S&D ECR ALDE Greens–EFA GUE-NGL EFDD ENF NI Others far-right (new+NI) Others far-left (new+NI) Others moderate (new+NI)
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[45]
(with United Kingdom)		 2019-04-16 177 148 58 73
(no En Marche)		 57 48 40 63 → 35 3 49
(22 from En Marche)
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[45]
(without United Kingdom)		 2019-04-16 185 132 47 67
(no En Marche)		 50 51 27 57 → 39 3 47
(22 from En Marche)
Bidimedia[46]
(with United Kingdom)		 2019-04-12 175 158 74 96 49 47 32 63 7+50 – – –
EU19.EU[47]
(with United Kingdom)		 2019-04-12 176 171 76 98 49 46 27 74 34 – – –
Europe Elects[48] 2019-04-10 184 135 63 106 47 51 35 63 11+10 – – –
Europe Elects[49] 2019-04-10 184 135 63 106 47 51 24 84
(as EAPN)		 11+10 – – –
EU19.EU[50] 2019-04-05 193 140 60 99 48 48 19
(only M5S)		 75 23 – – –
European Parliament[51] 2019-03-29 188 142 43 72

(no En Marche)

 51 49 30 61 37 – – 22
(only En Marche)
EU19.EU[52] 2019-03-29 187 145 61 99 47 50 22
(only M5S)		 74 20 – – –
EU19.EU[53] 2019-03-27 184 146 59 102 45 49 22
(only M5S)		 78 20 – – –
Europe Elects[54] 2019-03-25 177 135 64 105 46 53 40 62 12+11 – – –
EU19.EU[55] 2019-03-21 180 135 67 102 50 48 23
(only M5S)		 81 19 – – –
EU19.EU[56] 2019-03-18 181 135 65 101 50 48 24
(only M5S)		 82 19 – – –
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[57] 2019-03-15 183 134 40 73
(no En Marche)		 46 49 32 60 → 38 3 47
(21 from En Marche)
election.de[58] 2019-03-15 175
(no Fidesz)		 132 59 98 57 53 61
(12 from Fidesz)		 62 8 – – –
EU19.EU[59] 2019-03-14 178 143 58 101 47 51 24
(only M5S)		 83 20 – – –
EU19.EU[60] 2019-03-06 186 142 60 94 48 49 25
(only M5S)		 81 20 – – –
EU19.EU[61] 2019-03-04 185 141 59 94 47 52 25
(only M5S)		 83 19 – – –
EU19.EU[62] 2019-03-01 182 138 59 97 47 53 26
(only M5S)		 83 20 – – –
European Parliament[63] 2019-02 181 135 46 75 49 47 39 59 74 – – –
EU19.EU[64] 2019-02-26 173 144 59 99 50 51 26
(only M5S)		 82 21 – – –
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[65] 2019-02-24 185 139 46 68
(no En Marche)		 43 50 34 59 → 40 3 38
(21 from En Marche)
EU19.EU[66] 2019-02-21 170 141 62 104 48 50 23
(only M5S)		 84 23 – – –
EU19.EU[67] 2019-02-20 168 143 63 106 48 49 24
(only M5S)		 83 23 – – –
Eurobarometer[68] 2019-02-18 183 135 51 75
(no En Marche)		 45 46 43 59 22+58 – – –
EU19.EU[69] 2019-02-16 167 143 63 104 47 47 25
(only M5S)		 85 24 – – –
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[70] 2019-02-03 191 138 56 68
(no En Marche)		 45 52 35 56 → 39 3 36
(21 from En Marche)
European Parliament[63] 2019-01 186 129 43 77 46 45 34 60 85 – – –
Europe Elects[71] ("United Right Scenario") 2019-01-30 191 129 – 98 47 56 – 132 12+40 – – –
Europe Elects[71] ("EFDD breaks apart scenario") 2019-01-30 177 129 93 98 47 56 – 77 12+16 – – –
Europe Elects[72] 2019-01-13 177 129 62 98 47 56 46 62 12+16 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[73] 2019-01-08 181 130 58 90 49 57 14 63 11+52 – – –
European Parliament[63] 2018-12 185 131 45 78 42 49 46 62 67 – – –
Europe Elects[74] 2018-12-05 178 133 53 96 43 58 47 61 13+21 – – –
European Parliament[63] 2018-11 181 140 43 78 46 50 45 59 63 – – –
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[75] 2018-11-29 186 140 43 76
(no En Marche)		 42 56 35 56 → 36 3 32
(18 from En Marche)
Europe Elects[76] 2018-11-11 172 136 54 98 45 60 48 61 10+21 – – –
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[77] 2018-10-28 186 136 42 77
(no En Marche)		 40 58 38 53 → 38 3 34
(21 from En Marche)
Instituto Cattaneo[78] 2018-10-09 180 139 54 93 45 63 55 63 13 – – –
Europe Elects[79] 2018-10-09 177 134 50 98 40 61 50 61 9+25 – – –
Politico Europe[80] 2018-10-08 178 137 48 83
(21 En Marche)		 40 58 53 59 6+33 – – –
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[81] 2018-09-22 182 139 46 76
(no En Marche)		 36 61 40 52 → 36 3 33
(21 from En Marche)
Europe Elects[82] 2018-09-20 181 134 49 100 37 61 49 57 11+26 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[83] 2018-09-19 178 140 50 95 42 60 21 59 10+50 – – –
EuropeanElectionsStats.eu[84] 2018-09-12 187 141 44 72
(no En Marche)		 33 60 39 52 → 39 4 33
(21 from En Marche)
Europe Elects[85] 2018-08-10 179 137 50 104 36 60 49 55 10+25 – – –
Thomson Reuters[86] 2018-07-28 180 154 42 104 34 56 59 63 13 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("dynamic scenario")[87] 2018-07-25 177 145 90 56 (En Marche)
53 (ALDE)		 38 58 – 78 10 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("baseline scenario")[87] 2018-07-25 177 145 50 102 38 57 22 56 10+48 – – –
www.thenewfederalist.eu/Europe Elects[88] 2018-07-06 185 141 44 110 34 58 49 52 9+23 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("dynamic scenario")[89] 2018-05-29 178 138 84 57 (En Marche)
50 (ALDE)		 37 56 – 66 12 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist ("baseline scenario")[89] 2018-05-29 178 137 43 103 37 55 23 46 12+44 – – –
treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[90] 2018-05-18 179 141 42 112 32 61 58 47 12+21 – – –
treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[91] 2018-04-17 180 143 42 112 33 60 58 46 9+22 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[92] 2018-04-03 180 137 41 104 33 58 23 44 12+46 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[93] 2018-02-05 179 142 47 102 33 65 42 41 27 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[94] 2017-12-13 196 142 45 109 30 56 37 36 27 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[95] 2017-10-16 192 150 45 106 28 55 38 37 27 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[96] 2017-08-21 196 149 42 108 24 57 29 44 29 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[97] 2017-06-27 201 155 38 109 23 55 28 42 27 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[98] 2017-05-02 198 170 35 82 28 46 27 59 33 – – –
New allocation of seats without the United Kingdom approved
Der (europäische) Föderalist[98] 2017-05-02 198 186 68 88 35 47 36 59 34 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[99] 2017-03-28 181 181 74 75 29 58 40 48 51 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[98] 2017-03-06 191 182 69 80 35 50 48 60 36 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[100] 2017-03-01 174 185 81 85 31 54 42 51 48 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[98] 2017-01-16 191 180 63 82 40 48 48 68 31 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[101] 2017-01-07 189 170 71 82 28 63 38 60 49 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[101] 2016-12-01 195 176 72 81 35 57 38 57 42 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[98] 2016-11-14 194 182 65 91 38 48 47 61 25 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[102] 2016-10-31 191 171 73 75 30 71 41 61 38 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[103] 2016-10-01 194 179 71 82 31 57 42 64 31 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[98] 2016-09-13 189 181 62 91 38 47 53 63 27 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[104] 2016-09-01 189 176 74 86 32 59 40 54 32 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[104] 2016-08-13 191 184 72 86 32 60 40 58 21 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[105] 2016-07-28 192 185 59 90 39 48 54 61 13 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[106] 2016-07-13 202 187 67 92 31 57 36 58 21 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[107] 2016-06-23 183 179 74 88 32 61 46 61 27 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[108] 2016-06-01 186 177 76 83 35 59 63 45 27 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[109] 2016-05-25 187 174 63 85 40 55 51 70 12 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[110] 2016-05-02 187 178 69 89 27 66 56 49 23 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[111] 2016-04-07 192 179 72 85 37 52 50 53 31 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[112] 2016-04-02 205 177 84 87 30 58 37 48 25 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[113] 2016-03-01 186 183 81 99 27 65 37 48 25 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[111] 2016-02-07 196 183 70 82 34 51 51 55 29 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[114] 2016-02-02 191 186 86 79 27 69 39 51 23 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[115] 2016-01-04 194 187 76 95 28 66 37 48 20 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[116] 2015-12-14 192 185 68 87 33 52 52 53 29 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[117] 2015-12-02 197 186 91 82 33 61 37 47 17 – – –
thenewfederalist.eu[118] 2015-11-17 196 201 88 76 31 62 42 42 13 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[119] 2015-11-01 197 203 88 75 31 61 42 42 12 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[120] 2015-10-17 204 193 66 75 33 51 51 54 24 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[121] 2015-08-21 204 190 70 74 35 56 47 49 26 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[122] 2015-07-03 206 193 80 68 36 69 30 39 30 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[123] 2015-06-30 205 188 69 73 34 61 43 47 31 – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[124] 2015-05-05 218 196 71 75 31 74 34 – 52 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[125] 2015-05-03 205 193 62 80 32 60 44 (51) 24 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[126] 2015-03-10 216 196 60 77 31 60 43 (49) 19 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[127] 2015-01-12 212 190 59 70 40 65 47 (43) 25 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[128] 2014-11-18 212 195 59 69 42 60 47 (43) 24 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[129] 2014-09-23 223 196 61 67 39 53 47 (40) 25 – – –
Der (europäische) Föderalist[98] 2014-07-28 215 191 66 75 47 56 44 (40) 17 – – –
European election 2014 2014-05-25 221 191 70 67 50 52 48 (37) 15 – – –

Some observers[who?] consider that the European People's Party might remain the dominant political force in the chamber while populists might be stronger than they were.[130] However, Eurosceptics could be the first force in the chamber according to Charles de Marcilly[130] whilst centrist parties such as European People's Party and the continent's Socialists could decline.[131]. The following table shows projections with percentages instead of seats.

Opinion polls by vote share
Institute Date EPP S&D ECR ALDE Greens/EFA GUE/NGL EFDD ENF NI Others Others far-right (new+NI) Others far-left (new+NI) Others moderate (new+NI)
Europe Elects[132] 2019-04-10 22.9% 18.0% 8.0% 13.1% 8.4% 7.3% 6.8% 8.4% → 6.8% –
Europe Elects[133] 2018-12-27 21.4% 17.8% 5.9% 12.7% 7.0% 7.5% 8.2% 9.2% → 9.3% – – –
Europe Elects[74] 2018-12-05 21.6% 17.9% 5.7% 13.1% 7.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.6% 1.0% 8.3% – – –
Europe Elects[134] 2018-11-11 20.8% 17.6% 5.1% 13.3% 7.0% 8.8% 9.1% 9.6% 1.0% 7.8% – – –
Europe Elects[134] 2018-10-26 20.9% 18.4% 5.0% 11.6% 6.4% 8.6% 9.3% 9.1% 1.1% 9.7% – – –
Europe Elects[134] 2018-10-18 21.5% 18.4% 4.3% 12.0% 6.4% 8.7% 9.5% 9.3% 1.0% 8.9% – – –
Europe Elects[135] 2018-10-14 21.3% 18.3% 3.9% 12.6% 6.3% 8.6% 9.5% 9.3% 1.0% 9.1% – – –
Europe Elects[136] 2018-10-13 21.3% 18.4% 3.9% 12.5% 6.3% 8.6% 9.5% 9.3% 1.0% 9.1% – – –
Europe Elects[136] 2018-10-12 21.3% 18.5% 3.9% 12.5% 6.5% 8.6% 9.6% 9.3% 1.0% 9.1% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[137] 2018-06-01 20% 19.5% 9.5% 12.5% 6% 8% 8.5% 7.5% 2%  ?  ?  ?  ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[137] 2018-05-01 20.5% 21% 10.5% 13% 4.5% 8% 8% 7% 2%  ?  ?  ?  ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de/Europe Elects[137] 2018-04-01 20.5% 19.5% 10% 14% 4.5% 7.5% 8% 6.5% 1.5%  ?  ?  ?  ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2018-03-07 21% 20.5% 10% 12.5% 4.5% 7.5% 8.5% 6% 2.5%  ?  ?  ?  ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2018-01-30 21% 22% 10% 13.5% 5% 7.5% 7.5% 5.5% 2%  ?  ?  ?  ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2018-01-01 21% 22.5% 10% 12.5% 4.5% 8.5% 7.5% 5.5% 2%  ?  ?  ?  ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2017-11-30 21.5% 22% 10% 12.5% 4% 8% 7% 6.5% 2%  ?  ?  ?  ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2017-11-14 21.5% 21.5% 9.5% 13% 4% 8% 7% 6% 3% 6% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2017-10-06 21% 23% 9.5% 12.5% 4.5% 8% 4.5% 7% 3%  ?  ?  ?  ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2017-09-14 22.5% 23% 9.5% 13% 4.5% 8% 4.5% 6% 3%  ?  ?  ?  ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2017-06-14 22.5% 24% 8% 12.5% 4% 8% 4% 5.5% 3%  ?  ?  ?  ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[137] 2017-05-22 22% 23% 8.5% 12% 4% 8% 4.5% 6.5% 3%  ?  ?  ?  ?
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[138] 2017-03-28 22% 23% 8.5% 8% 4% 7.5% 6% 7% 6.5% 7.5% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[139] 2017-03-01 21% 23.5% 9% 8.5% 4% 7.5% 6.5% 7.5% 6% 6.5% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[140] 2017-02-02 23% 20.5% 9.5% 8% 4.5% 8% 6% 8.5% 5.5% 6.5% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[141] 2017-01-07 23.5% 22% 9% 8.5% 4.5% 7.5% 6.5% 9% 3.5% 6.5% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[142] 2016-12-01 23.5% 22.5% 9% 8.5% 4.5% 7.5% 6.5% 8.5% 3.5% 6% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[102] 2016-10-31 23% 21% 9% 8% 5% 8% 7% 9% 3% 7% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[103] 2016-10-01 24% 22% 9% 9% 4% 8% 7% 9% 3% 5% – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[143] 2016-09-01 25% 24% 10% 12% 4% 8% 5% 8% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[104] 2016-08-13 26% 24% 10% 11% 4% 8% 5% 8% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[106] 2016-07-13 27% 25% 9% 12% 4% 7% 5% 8%  ? – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[144] 2016-06-23 24% 24% 10% 12% 4% 8% 6% 8% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[108] 2016-06-01 25% 23% 10% 11% 5% 8% 6% 8% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[145] 2016-05-22 25% 24% 10% 11% 4% 8% 6% 8% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[146] 2016-05-02 25% 24% 9% 12% 4% 9% 7% 7%  ? – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[112] 2016-04-02 27% 24% 11% 12% 4% 8% 5% 6%  ? – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[113] 2016-03-01 25% 24% 11% 13% 4% 9% 5% 6%  ? – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[147] 2016-02-02 25% 25% 11% 11% 4% 9% 5% 7% 3% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[115] 2016-01-04 26% 25% 10% 13% 4% 9% 5% 6% 2% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[117] 2015-12-02 26% 25% 12% 11% 5% 8% 5% 6% 2% – – – –
Europe Elects/thenewfederalist.eu[118] 2015-11-17 26% 27% 12% 10% 4% 8% 5% 6% 2% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[119] 2015-11-01 26% 27% 12% 10% 4% 8% 5% 6% 2% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[148] 2015-10-01 26% 26% 10% 11% 4% 9% 5% 6% 3% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[149] 2015-09-01 27% 26% 11% 10% 5% 9% 4% 5% 3% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[150] 2015-08-06 27% 26% 10% 9% 5% 10% 4% 5% 3% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[122] 2015-07-03 27% 26% 11% 9% 5% 9% 4% 5% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[151] 2015-06-16 27% 25% 10% 10.5% 5% 9% 4% 5.5% 4% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[152] 2015-06-02 27% 26% 11% 9% 4% 9% 5% – 9% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[124] 2015-05-05 29% 26% 9% 10% 4% 10% 5% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[153] 2015-04-03 29% 27% 10% 9% 4% 9% 4% – 8% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[154] 2015-03-12 29% 27% 10% 9% 4% 10% 4% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[155] 2015-01-30 29% 27% 9% 10% 4% 9% 5% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[155] 2014-12-30 29% 27% 10% 9% 4% 10% 4% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[155] 2014-11-30 29% 27% 10% 10% 5% 9% 4% – 6% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[155] 2014-10-30 29% 26% 9% 10% 5% 9% 4% – 8% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[155] 2014-09-30 29% 26% 9% 10% 5% 9% 5% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[155] 2014-08-30 27% 28% 9% 10% 5% 9% 5% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[155] 2014-07-30 28% 26% 10% 10% 6% 8% 5% – 7% – – – –
Europe Elects/treffpunkteuropa.de[155] 2014-06-30 29% 26% 9% 10% 6% 8% 5% – 7% – – – –
European election 2014 2014-05-25 29.2 % 25.4 % 9.1 % 8.9 % 6.8 % 6.7 % 6.4 % – 7.1 % – – – –

References

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External links

  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ Preliminary date which can be changed by the Council of the European Union. The European Parliament wants the elections to take place on 23–26 May 2019.
  3. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  5. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  7. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  8. ↑ Wieland: "Spitzenkandidat genie is well and truly out of the bottle", Euractiv 11 May 2016
  9. ↑ Spitzenkandidat system here to stay, MEPs warn capitals, EU Observer 23 January 2018
  10. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker 'will not seek second term', BBC 11 February 2017
  12. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  15. ↑ Slovakia's Sefcovic announces bid to head European Commission, Reuters 17 September 2018
  16. ↑ Juncker's Dutch deputy bids to succeed him as EU chief, Reuters 10 October 2018
  17. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  18. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 Race is on for Commission president in 2019, Politico 13 February 2017
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  22. ↑ The race to succeed Juncker begins, Euractiv 17 January 2018
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  25. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  39. ↑ Amendments to the protocol on transitional provisions annexed to the EU treaties ratified on 1st December 2011, according to the European Parliament Press release on the ratification of Parliament's 18 additional MEPs, 1st December 2011
  40. ↑ 40.0 40.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  41. ↑ http://bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PC-2017_02-Euro-Parl-310117.pdf
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