2020 United States Senate election in Alabama
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Alabama will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Doug Jones, first elected in a 2017 special election, will run for a full term. Jones is one of two Democratic U.S. senators facing reelection in 2020 in a state President Donald Trump carried in 2016, the other being Gary Peters from Michigan.[1] Jones is widely considered the most vulnerable senator seeking reelection in 2020.[2][3][4]
Contents
Democratic primary
The candidate filing deadline was November 8, 2019. Jones ran unopposed.[5][6]
Candidates
Nominee
- Doug Jones, incumbent U.S. senator[7]
Declined
- John Rogers, state representative[8]
- Randall Woodfin, mayor of Birmingham[9] (endorsed Doug Jones)
Endorsements
| Doug Jones |
|---|
|
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tommy Tuberville, former Auburn Tigers football head coach[19]
Eliminated in runoff
- Jeff Sessions, former United States attorney general and former U.S. senator from Alabama[20]
Eliminated in primary
- Stanley Adair, businessman[21]
- Bradley Byrne, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 1st congressional district[22]
- Arnold Mooney, state representative
- Roy Moore, former Chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, former candidate for Governor of Alabama in 2006 and 2010 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2017[23]
- Ruth Page Nelson, community activist[24]
Withdrew
- Marty Preston Hatley[25][26]
- John Merrill, Secretary of State of Alabama[27]
- Chase Anderson Romagnano, Republican candidate for Alabama's 1st congressional district and Florida's 1st congressional district in 2020[28][29]
- John Paul Serbin[30][26]
Declined
- Robert Aderholt, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 4th congressional district[31]
- Will Ainsworth, Alabama lieutenant governor[32]
- Mo Brooks, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 5th congressional district and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2017[33]
- Will Dismukes, state representative[34]
- Matt Gaetz, incumbent U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district[35]
- Del Marsh, president pro tempore of the Alabama Senate[36]
- Arthur Orr, state senator[9] (endorsed Bradley Byrne)
- Martha Roby, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 2nd congressional district[37]
- Heather Whitestone, former Miss America[38][39]
Endorsements
| Bradley Byrne (eliminated) |
|---|
|
| Arnold Mooney (eliminated) |
|---|
|
| Jeff Sessions (eliminated) |
|---|
|
| Tommy Tuberville |
|---|
|
First round
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Stanley Adair |
Mo Brooks |
Bradley Byrne |
Del Marsh |
John Merrill |
Arnold Mooney |
Roy Moore |
Ruth Page Nelson |
Gary Palmer |
Jeff Sessions |
Tommy Tuberville |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 1] | February 18–19, 2020 | 607 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | <1% | 5% | – | – | 29% | 32% | <1% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 1] | February 10–12, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | 1% | 6% | <1% | – | 34% | 29% | – | 15% |
| Harper Polling[upper-alpha 2] | February 8–9, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 3.97% | – | – | 26% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | 31% | 24% | – | 14% |
| Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | 31% | 29% | 2% | 16% |
| OnMessage[upper-alpha 3] | January 13–15, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 2.5% | – | – | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 43% | 21% | – | – |
| OnMessage[upper-alpha 3] | December 3–5, 2019 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | – | 14% | – | – | 1% | 7% | 1% | – | 44% | 21% | – | 12% |
| Cherry Communications[upper-alpha 4] | December 1–3, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1% | – | 12% | – | – | 1% | 8% | – | – | 35% | 31% | – | – |
| Merrill withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Filing deadline, by which Palmer had not declared his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Nelson and Sessions announce their candidacies | ||||||||||||||||
| WPA Intelligence[upper-alpha 1] | October 29–31, 2019 | 511 (V) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 11% | – | 6% | 2% | 11% | – | – | 36% | 23% | – | – |
| Cygnal | October 10–12, 2019 | 536 (LV) | – | 1% | – | 18% | – | 9% | 2% | 11% | – | – | – | 32% | – | 28% |
| Tommy for Senate[upper-alpha 5] | Released on October 5, 2019 |
– (LV)[lower-alpha 2] | – | 1% | – | 13% | – | 9% | 1% | 15% | – | – | – | 36% | – | 26% |
| Moore Information[upper-alpha 6] | August 11–13, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | – | 13% | 1% | 15% | – | – | – | 33% | 3% | 17% |
| Merrill announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Cygnal | June 22–23, 2019 | 612 (LV) | 4.0% | – | – | 21% | – | 12% | 2% | 13% | – | – | – | 29% | – | 22% |
| – | – | 13% | – | 8% | – | 9% | – | – | 29% | 21% | – | – | ||||
| Moore announces his candidacy | ||||||||||||||||
| Moore Information[upper-alpha 6] | June 10–11, 2019 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 16% | – | 7% | 2% | 18% | – | – | – | 23% | 6% | 28% |
| Brooks announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||||
| Marsh announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||||
| Mason-Dixon | April 9–11, 2019 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | – | 18% | 13% | 4% | – | – | 27% | – | 11% | – | – | 2%[lower-alpha 3] | 25% |
| Victory Phones[upper-alpha 7] | Released in February 2019 |
400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | 30% | 17% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 12% | – | – | 6% | 27% |
Primary results
File:2020ALSenGOP.svg
Initial primary round results by county
Tuberville
-
Tuberville—50–60%
-
Tuberville—40–50%
-
Tuberville—30–40%
-
Tuberville—<30%
Sessions
-
Sessions—30–40%
-
Sessions—40–50%
-
Sessions—50–60%
Byrne
-
Byrne—30–40%
-
Byrne—40–50%
-
Byrne—50–60%
-
Byrne—60–70%
| Republican primary results[57] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 239,616 | 33.39% | |
| Republican | Jeff Sessions | 227,088 | 31.64% | |
| Republican | Bradley Byrne | 178,627 | 24.89% | |
| Republican | Roy Moore | 51,377 | 7.16% | |
| Republican | Ruth Page Nelson | 7,200 | 1.00% | |
| Republican | Arnold Mooney | 7,149 | 1.00% | |
| Republican | Stanley Adair | 6,608 | 0.92% | |
| Total votes | 717,665 | 100.00% | ||
Runoff
The runoff for the Republican Senate nomination was planned for March 31, 2020,[58] but it was delayed until July 14 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.[59]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Sessions |
Tommy Tuberville |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn University at Montgomery | July 2–9, 2020 | 558 (RV) | ± 6% | 31% | 47% | 22%[lower-alpha 4] |
| OnMessage (R)[upper-alpha 3] | May 26–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 43% | 49% | 8%[lower-alpha 5] |
| FM3 Research (D)[upper-alpha 8] | May 14–18, 2020 | – (LV)[lower-alpha 6] | – | 32% | 54% | 14%[lower-alpha 7] |
| Cygnal | May 7–10, 2020 | 607 (LV) | ± 3.98% | 32% | 55% | 13% |
| FM3 Research (D)[upper-alpha 8] | March, 2020 | – (LV)[lower-alpha 8] | – | 36% | 54% | 10%[lower-alpha 9] |
| OnMessage (R)[upper-alpha 3] | March 8–9, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Cygnal | March 6–8, 2020 | 645 (LV) | + 3.86% | 40% | 52% | 8% |
| Moore Information Group[upper-alpha 6] | March 5–7, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5% | 38% | 49% | 13% |
| WT&S Consulting | March 5, 2020 | 1,234 (LV) | + 3.29% | 42% | 49% | 8%[lower-alpha 10] |
| Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
|
Hypothetical polling
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Results
File:Alabama U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff, 2020.svg
Runoff results by county
Tuberville
-
Tuberville—70–80%
-
Tuberville—60–70%
-
Tuberville—50–60%
Sessions
-
Sessions—50–60%
| Republican primary runoff results[57] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 334,675 | 60.73% | |
| Republican | Jeff Sessions | 216,452 | 39.27% | |
| Total votes | 551,127 | 100.0% | ||
Independents
Candidates
Withdrawn
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[64] | Lean R (flip) | August 17, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[65] | Lean R (flip) | September 18, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[66] | Likely R (flip) | August 5, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[67] | Likely R (flip) | August 31, 2020 |
| Politico[68] | Lean R (flip) | September 9, 2020 |
| RCP[69] | Likely R (flip) | September 17, 2020 |
| Niskanen[70] | Safe R (flip) | September 15, 2020 |
| DDHQ[71] | Likely R (flip) | September 16, 2020 |
| 538[72] | Lean R (flip) | September 18, 2020 |
Endorsements
| Doug Jones (D) |
|---|
|
| Tommy Tuberville (R) |
|---|
|
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Tommy Tuberville (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 34% | 52% | – | – |
| Morning Consult | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 52% | 4%[lower-alpha 11] | 9% |
| Auburn University at Montgomery | July 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 36% | 44% | 7%[lower-alpha 12] | 14% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 11] | June 29 – July 2, 2020 | 509 (LV)[lower-alpha 13] | ± 3.8% | 40% | 50% | – | – |
| ALG Research (D) | June 18–22, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 8% |
| Cygnal (R) | June 13–16, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 50% | 2%[lower-alpha 14] | 13% |
| FM3 Research (D)[upper-alpha 8] | May 14–18, 2020 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
| JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 47% | – | 13% |
|
Hypothetical polling
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Doug Jones (incumbent) | {{{change}}} | |||
| Republican | Tommy Tuberville | {{{change}}} | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | ||||
Notes
- Partisan clients and other notes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 The Club for Growth is a PAC supporting the Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign and has also endorsed Tuberville
- ↑ Poll sponsored by the Bradley Byrne campaign
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Poll sponsored by the Jeff Sessions campaign
- ↑ Poll sponsored by FarmPAC
- ↑ Internal poll from Tuberville's campaign
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Poll sponsored by the Tommy Tuberville campaign
- ↑ Poll produced, according to Mo Brooks, by a group attempting to persuade him to enter this race
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 Poll sponsored by Jones' campaign
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
- ↑ Standard VI response
- ↑ Poll sponsored by the Club for Growth, which supports exclusively Republican candidates.
- ↑ "Jones does not deserve to be re-elected" with 48% as opposed to "Jones deserves to be re-elected"
- Voter samples
- ↑ 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Not yet released
- ↑ Tim James with 2%
- ↑ Undecided with 22%
- ↑ Undecided with 8%
- ↑ Not yet released
- ↑ Undecided with 14%
- ↑ Not yet released
- ↑ Undecided with 10%
- ↑ Undecided with 8%
- ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
- ↑ "Write-in candidate" with 7%
- ↑ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ↑ Parrish (I) with 2%
- ↑ "Write-in candidate" with 7%
- ↑ Parrish (I) with 3%
References
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External links
- Official campaign websites
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