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2021 German federal election

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2021 German federal election

← 2017 26 September 2021 (2021-09-26) Next →

All 735 seats in the Bundestag, including 137 overhang and leveling seats
368 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 61,168,234 Decrease 0.8%
Turnout 46,838,765 (76.6%) Increase 0.4 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Candidate Olaf Scholz Armin Laschet Annalena Baerbock[lower-alpha 1]
Party SPD CDU/CSU Alliance 90/The Greens
Leader since 10 August 2020[lower-alpha 4] 16 January 2021 27 January 2018
Leader's seat Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II[lower-alpha 5] North Rhine-Westphalia (list)[lower-alpha 6] Brandenburg (list)[lower-alpha 2]
Last election 20.5%, 153 seats 32.9%, 246 seats 8.9%, 67 seats
Seats won 206 196 118
Seat change Increase 53 Decrease 50 Increase 51
Popular vote 11,949,756 11,173,806 6,848,215
Percentage 25.7% 24.1% 14.8%[lower-alpha 3]
Swing Increase 5.2 pp Decrease 8.8 pp Increase 5.9 pp

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Candidate Christian Lindner Alice Weidel &
Tino Chrupalla
Janine Wissler &
Dietmar Bartsch
Party FDP AfD Left
Leader since 7 December 2013 24 May 2021[lower-alpha 10]
30 November 2019
27 February 2021
2 May 2021[lower-alpha 7]
Leader's seat North Rhine-Westphalia (list)[lower-alpha 11] Baden-Württemberg (list)[lower-alpha 12]
Görlitz
Hesse (list)[lower-alpha 8]
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (list)[lower-alpha 9]
Last election 10.7%, 80 seats 12.6%, 94 seats 9.2%, 69 seats
Seats won 92 83 39
Seat change Increase 12 Decrease 11 Decrease 30
Popular vote 5,316,698 4,802,097 2,269,993
Percentage 11.5% 10.3% 4.9%
Swing Increase 0.8 pp Decrease 2.3 pp Decrease 4.3 pp

450px
The left side shows constituency winners of the election by their party colours. The right side shows party list winners of the election for the additional members by their party colours.

Government before election

Fourth Merkel cabinet
CDU/CSUSPD

Government after election

TBD

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The 2021 German federal election was held on 26 September 2021 to elect the members of the 20th Bundestag.[2][3][lower-alpha 13] On the same day, state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern were also held.[4] Incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel chose not to run again in this election,[5] marking the first time in postwar history that an incumbent Chancellor did not seek re-election.[6]

With 25.7% of total votes, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) recorded their best result since 2013 and emerged as the largest party for the first time since 2002. The ruling CDU/CSU, which had led a grand coalition with the SPD since 2013, recorded their worst ever result with 24.1%, a significant decline from 32.9% in 2017. Alliance 90/The Greens achieved their best result in history at 14.8%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) made small gains and finished on 11.5%. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) fell from third to fifth place with 10.3%, a decline of 2.3 percentage points. The Left suffered their worst showing since their official formation in 2007, failing to cross the 5% electoral threshold by just over one-tenth of a percentage point. The party was nonetheless entitled to full proportional representation as it won three direct constituencies.[7]

With complex coalition talks required for the formation of a government, the FDP and the Greens are considered kingmakers, and an unprecedented three-party coalition has been discussed as a likely outcome.[8][9]

Background

Previous election and government formation, 2017–2018

The 2017 German federal election was held after a four-year grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. Though the CDU/CSU remained the biggest parliamentary group, both it and the SPD suffered significant losses. The SPD leadership, recognising the party's unsatisfactory performance after four years in government, announced that it would go into opposition.[10] With the CDU/CSU having pledged not to work with either the AfD or The Left before the elections, the only remaining option for a majority government was a Jamaica coalition consisting of the CDU/CSU, FDP, and the Greens.[11][12] Exploratory talks between the parties were held over the next six weeks, though on 20 November the FDP withdrew from the negotiations, citing irreconcilable differences between the parties on migration and energy policies.[13][14] Chancellor Angela Merkel consulted with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who implored all parties to reconsider in order to avoid fresh elections.[15][16]

Consequently, the SPD and their leader Martin Schulz indicated their willingness to enter into discussions for another coalition government with the CDU/CSU.[17] The SPD leadership voted to enter into exploratory discussion on 15 December 2017[18] and at a party congress in January 2018 a majority of the party's delegates voted to support the coalition talks.[19][20] The text of the final agreement was agreed to by the CDU/CSU and the SPD on 7 February, though was conditioned on the approval of a majority of the SPD's party membership.[21] The 463,723 members of the SPD voted to approve or reject the deal from 20 February to 2 March,[22][23] with the result announced on 4 March. A total of 78.39% of members cast valid votes, of which 66.02% voted in favor of another grand coalition.[24] Merkel was voted in by the Bundestag for a fourth term as Chancellor on 14 March, with 364 votes for, 315 against, 9 abstentions, and 4 invalid votes, just 9 more votes than the 355 needed for a majority.[25] The new government was officially referred to as the Fourth Merkel cabinet.[26][27]

Party leadership changes and political instability

Merkel's final government was subject to intense instability. The 2018 German government crisis saw the longstanding alliance between the CDU and CSU threaten to split over asylum seeker policy. Interior Minister and CSU leader Horst Seehofer threatened to undercut Merkel's authority by closing German borders for asylum seekers registered in another European Union (EU) country. The split, eventually repaired following a summit with EU countries, threatened to bring down the government.[28] Following his party's historically low result in the 2018 Bavarian state election, Seehofer was replaced as CSU leader by new Bavarian Minister-President Markus Söder at a party conference in January 2019, while he retained his position as Interior Minister in the Cabinet.[29]

Merkel herself also announced that she would resign as leader of the CDU at the party's conference in December 2018 and step down as Chancellor of Germany at the forthcoming election, following poor results at state elections for the CSU in Bavaria and for the CDU in Hesse.[30][31] Merkel's allegedly preferred candidate for the party leadership, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, narrowly defeated Friedrich Merz, who had been a rival of Merkel around 2002 and had left politics in 2009 criticising her decisions and leadership.[32] Kramp-Karrenbauer struggled to unify the party's liberal and conservative factions, and in February 2020, when she failed to lead the Thuringia state CDU towards a solution of the government crisis there, she announced her intention to withdraw her interest in running as the CDU nominee for Chancellor at the election and step down as party leader.[33] A party convention to elect a new leader was scheduled for April, but repeatedly delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The election was held in January 2021, with Armin Laschet, incumbent Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia, winning with 52.8% of delegate votes. His main opponent again was Friedrich Merz who won 47.2%.[34]

The other party in the coalition government, the SPD, also had leadership instability. Following their worst general election result since 1945, at the beginning of the new government the party elected Andrea Nahles as their leader in April 2018. Nahles had already been elected leader of the SPD parliamentary group after the federal election in September when the party still planned to go into opposition.[35][36] She was unsuccessful in improving the party's stock with the electorate as it continued to slide in opinion polls and was for the first time in history well beaten by the centre-left party Alliance 90/The Greens at the 2019 European Parliament election. She resigned on 2 June 2019, precipitating a leadership election for the SPD.[37] Progressive candidates Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken defeated the more moderate candidates Olaf Scholz and Klara Geywitz, and were elected co-leaders by the party's membership. Their election raised prospects of the coalition government collapsing and early elections being called, although Reuters reported that the duo would seek to achieve agreement from the CDU/CSU on increasing public spending rather than allow the government to collapse.[38] In August 2020, the party appointed Merkel's deputy Vice-Chancellor Scholz as its candidate for Chancellor at the election, despite him having lost to Walter-Borjans and Esken in the party leadership election.[39]

Cem Özdemir and Simone Peter stood down as co-leaders of The Greens after the failed Jamaica negotiations, and Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck were elected as their successors in January 2018. Dissatisfaction with the SPD and the federal government saw a rise in Greens' polling numbers throughout 2018. They scored record results in the Bavarian and Hessian state elections in October and subsequently surpassed the SPD in public opinion, settling in second behind the CDU/CSU for the next three years. They briefly polled in first place during two brief periods, first after the 2019 European elections and again after the nomination of Chancellor candidates in April 2021.[40] The party had its best ever showings at the 2019 European Parliament elections, 2020 Hamburg state election, and 2021 Baden-Württemberg state election.

The Left also underwent a change in leadership, with Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger stepping down after nine years as party co-leaders. They were succeeded by Janine Wissler and Susanne Hennig-Wellsow at a party conference held digitally on 27 February 2021. Wissler is considered a member of the party's left wing, formerly aligned with the Socialist Left faction, while Hennig-Wellsow is considered a moderate. Both support their party's participation in federal government, particularly Hennig-Wellsow, who played a major role in the red–red–green coalition government of The Left, SPD, and Greens in the state of Thuringia.[41]

Electoral system

Germany uses the mixed-member proportional representation system, a system of proportional representation combined with elements of first-past-the-post voting. The Bundestag has 598 nominal members, elected for a four-year term; these seats are distributed between the sixteen German states in proportion to the states' number of eligible voters.[42]

Every elector has two votes: a constituency vote (first vote) and a party list vote (second vote). Based solely on the first votes, 299 members are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting. The second votes are used to produce a proportional number of seats for parties, first in the states, and then in the Bundestag. Seats are allocated using the Sainte-Laguë method. If a party wins fewer constituency seats in a state than its second votes would entitle it to, it receives additional seats from the relevant state list. Parties can file lists in every single state under certain conditions, such as a fixed number of supporting signatures. Parties can receive second votes only in those states in which they have filed a state list.[42] If a party, by winning single-member constituencies in one state, receives more seats than it would be entitled to according to its second vote share in that state (so-called overhang seats), the other parties receive compensation seats. Owing to this provision, the Bundestag usually has more than 598 members; 735 seats were contested in this election, up from 709 seats in 2017. The 19th Bundestag elected in 2017 had 709 seats: 598 regular seats and 111 overhang and compensation seats. Overhang seats are calculated at the state level, so many more seats are added to balance this out among the states, adding more seats than would be needed to compensate for overhang at the national level in order to avoid negative vote weight.[42]

In order to qualify for seats based on the party-list vote share, a party must either win three single-member constituencies via first votes or exceed a threshold of 5% of the second votes nationwide. If a party only wins one or two single-member constituencies and fails to get at least 5% of the second votes, it keeps the single-member seat(s), but other parties that accomplish at least one of the two threshold conditions receive compensation seats.[42] The most recent example of this was in 2002, when the PDS won only 4.0% of the second votes nationwide but won two constituencies in the state of Berlin.[43] The same applies if an independent candidate wins a single-member constituency,[42] which has not happened since 1949.[43] If a voter cast a first vote for a successful independent candidate or a successful candidate whose party failed to qualify for proportional representation, his or her second vote does not count toward proportional representation; however, it counts toward whether the elected party exceeds the 5% threshold.[42] Parties representing recognized national minorities (currently Danes, Frisians, Sorbs, and Romani people) are exempt from the 5% threshold.[42]

Date

The Basic Law and the Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday[44] no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag,[45] unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 19th and previous Bundestag had held its first sitting on 24 October 2017.[46] The next election had to take place on one of the following possible dates:

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  • 29 August 2021 (Sunday)
  • 5 September 2021 (Sunday)
  • 12 September 2021 (Sunday)
  • 19 September 2021 (Sunday)
  • 26 September 2021 (Sunday)
  • 3 October 2021 (Sunday and German Unity Day)
  • 10 October 2021 (Sunday)
  • 17 October 2021 (Sunday)
  • 24 October 2021 (Sunday)

While a possible snap election at an earlier date is not precluded, the exact date is determined by the President of Germany in due course.[47] On 9 December 2020, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier ordered the election to be held on 26 September 2021.[48]

Observers

43 members of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly have visited Germany totaling 56 observers.[49]

Parties and candidates

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The table below lists the parliamentary groups of the 19th Bundestag.

Name Ideology Lead
candidate(s)
Leader(s) Parliamentary
leader(s)
2017 result
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party
Sozialdemokratische Partei
Social democracy Olaf Scholz Saskia Esken
Norbert Walter-Borjans
Rolf Mützenich 20.5%
153 / 709
Union CDU Christian Democratic Union
Christlich Demokratische Union
Christian democracy Armin Laschet Armin Laschet Ralph Brinkhaus 26.8%
246 / 709
CSU Christian Social Union in Bavaria
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Markus Söder 6.2%[lower-alpha 14]
style="background:Template:Alliance 90/The Greens/meta/color;"| Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Annalena Baerbock[lower-alpha 1] Annalena Baerbock
Robert Habeck
Katrin Göring-Eckardt
Anton Hofreiter
8.9%
67 / 709
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism Christian Lindner Christian Lindner Christian Lindner 10.7%
80 / 709
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
Right-wing populism Alice Weidel
Tino Chrupalla
Jörg Meuthen
Tino Chrupalla
Alexander Gauland
Alice Weidel
12.6%
94 / 709
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Janine Wissler
Dietmar Bartsch
Janine Wissler
Susanne Hennig-Wellsow
Amira Mohamed Ali
Dietmar Bartsch
9.2%
69 / 709
Independents
(factionless
outgoing members)
Marco Bülow (Die PARTEI)
Verena Hartmann (formerly AfD)
Lars Hermann (formerly AfD)
Uwe Kamann (formerly AfD)
Mario Mieruch (LKR)
Georg Nüßlein (formerly CSU)
Frank Pasemann (formerly AfD)
Frauke Petry (formerly AfD)
0 / 709

Lead candidates

After the election of Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet as federal CDU chairman in January 2021, he became the presumptive CDU nominee for the Union's joint Chancellor candidacy. Laschet was challenged by Minister-President of Bavaria Markus Söder of the CSU, who consistently polled well among voters and had been discussed as a potential candidate since mid-2020.[50] As the contest intensified in March/April 2021, Söder was backed by the CSU as well as some state and local CDU associations, while Laschet received the support of most of the CDU. The two men failed to come to an agreement by the given deadline of 19 April,[51] leading the federal CDU board to hold an impromptu meeting to break the deadlock. The board voted 31 to 9 in favour of Laschet.[52] After the vote, Söder announced his support for Laschet as Chancellor candidate.[53]

On 10 August 2020, the Social Democratic Party nominated incumbent Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz as their lead candidate for the election. Scholz, who served as Mayor of Hamburg from 2011 to 2018, unsuccessfully sought the SPD leadership in the 2019 leadership election.[54] Scholz was formally elected at a party conference on 8–9 May 2021, supported by 96% of delegates.[55]

The AfD's lead candidates were chosen via a membership vote held from 17 to 24 May 2021. The ticket of party co-chairman Tino Chrupalla and Bundestag co-leader Alice Weidel were elected with 71% of votes; they were opposed by the ticket of former German Air Force lieutenant-general Joachim Wundrak and MdB Joana Cotar, who won 24%. 14,815 votes were cast, correspoding to a turnout of 48%.[56]

On 21 March 2021, the FDP association in North Rhine-Westphalia elected federal chairman Christian Lindner as top candidate for the party list in that state.[57] He was re-elected as chairman on 14 May, winning 93% of votes with no opponent. The vote also served to confirm him as lead candidate for the federal election.[58]

The Left announced Janine Wissler and Dietmar Bartsch as their co-lead candidates on 2 May 2021. Wissler was elected federal party co-leader earlier in the year alongside Susanne Hennig-Wellsow, who chose not to seek the co-lead candidacy. Bartsch had co-chaired The Left's Bundestag group since 2015, and was previously co-lead candidate in the 2017 federal election.[59] Wissler and Bartsch were formally selected by the party executive on 8–9 May, receiving 87% of the votes.[60]

Due to their rise in national opinion polling since 2018, the Greens were expected to forgo the traditional dual lead-candidacy in favour of selecting a single Chancellor candidate. Party co-leaders Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck were considered the only plausible candidates.[61] Annalena Baerbock was announced as Chancellor candidate on 19 April.[62] Both Baerbock and Habeck are co-lead candidates for the party's election campaign.[63]

Competing parties

A total of 47 parties and lists were approved to run in the 2021 federal election, including the seven which won seats in the 19th Bundestag. Of these, 40 are running party lists in at least one state, while 7 are running only direct candidates. Further, 196 independent candidates are running in the various direct constituencies.[64]

In the table below, green shading indicates that the party is running a list in the indicated state. The number in each box indicates how many direct candidates the party is running in the indicated state.

Party State
BW BY BE BB HB HH HE MV NI NW RP SL SN ST SH TH
Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) 38 12 10 2 6 22 6 30 64 15 4 16 9 11 8
Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) 38 46 12 10 2 6 22 6 30 64 15 4 16 9 11 8
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 38 44 12 10 2 6 22 6 27 63 15 4 16 9 11 8
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 38 46 12 10 2 6 22 6 30 64 15 4 16 9 11 8
The Left (DIE LINKE) 38 45 12 10 2 6 22 6 30 64 14 4 16 9 11 8
bgcolor=Template:Alliance 90/The Greens/meta/color| Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 38 46 12 10 2 6 22 6 30 64 15 4 16 9 11 8
Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) 46
bgcolor=Template:Free Voters/meta/color| Free Voters (FREIE WÄHLER) 38 46 7 9 2 5 21 6 22 57 15 4 12 8 11 6
Die PARTEI (PARTEI) 33 31 12 9 2 2 9 2 8 52 10 4 11 2 7 7
Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutzpartei) 8 6 12 1 1 3 9 3 3 1
National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD) 1 4
Pirate Party Germany (PIRATEN) 3 6 6 5 1 2 4 3 8 4 1 3 1
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 16 46 10 7 2 5 5 2 9 4 13 1 4
V-Partei³ – Party for Change, Vegetarians and Vegans (V-Partei³) 1 11 1 1 1 2 1
Democracy in Motion (DiB) 6
bgcolor=Template:Bavaria Party/meta/color| Bavaria Party (BP) 24
Animal Protection Alliance (Tierschutzallianz) 2
bgcolor=Template:Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany/meta/color| Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD) 22 9 7 1 2 6 5 4 6 31 1 1 4 2 2 8
Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung) 2 1
German Communist Party (DKP) 4 1 2 12 1 3
Human World (MENSCHLICHE WELT) 1 1
The Greys – For all Generations (Die Grauen) 1
Civil Rights Movement Solidarity (BüSo) 2 5 1 1
Party of Humanists (Die Humanisten) 10 3 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 3
Garden Party (Gartenpartei) 1
The Urbans. A HipHop Party (du.) 2 1 3
Socialist Equality Party, Fourth International (SGP)
bgcolor=Template:Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color| Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (dieBasis) 36 46 11 10 2 6 21 5 27 60 15 4 16 9 11 7
bgcolor=Template:Alliance C – Christians for Germany/meta/color| Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C) 1 2 4 2 2
The III. Path (III. Weg) 1
Citizens' Movement for Progress and Change (BÜRGERBEWEGUNG) 3
The Pinks/Alliance 21 (BÜNDNIS21) 1 1
European Party LOVE (LIEBE) 1
bgcolor=Template:Liberal Conservative Reformers/meta/color| Liberal Conservative Reformers (LKR) 3 7 10 1 1 8 7 3 4 6 2
Party for Progress (PdF)
Lobbyists for Children (LfK)
bgcolor=Template:South Schleswig Voters' Association/meta/color| South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW)[lower-alpha 15] 5
Team Todenhöfer – The Justice Party (Team Todenhöfer) 2 1
Independents for Citizen-oriented Democracy (UNABHÄNGIGE) 2 3 1 1 2 2
bgcolor=Template:Volt Europa/meta/color| Volt Germany (Volt) 13 12 2 1 1 3 5 15 10 2
From now... Democracy through Referendum (Volksabstimmung) 2
bergpartei, die überpartei (B*) 1
The Others (sonstige) 1
Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE) 1
Grey Panthers (Graue Panther) 1 1 2 2 1
Climate List Baden-Württemberg (KlimalisteBW) 7
Thuringian Homeland Party (THP) 1
Independents and voter groups 15 26 9 18 2 15 2 21 31 22 1 22 7 2 3
Party BW BY BE BB HB HH HE MV NI NW RP SL SN ST SH TH
Total constituencies 38 46 12 10 2 6 22 6 30 64 15 4 16 9 11 8

Registration of candidates

In July 2021, the respective state electoral committees rejected the lists of the AfD in Bremen and the Greens in Saarland. The AfD list was rejected for formal reasons, while the Green list in Saarland was declared invalid due to a controversial nomination process, in which one third of the state delegates were excluded from the nomination convention. Both state parties filed motions against the rulings. The federal electoral committee dismissed the motion of the Saarland Greens, while the AfD list in Bremen was permitted to run in the elections. The Green Party will thus not be eligible for the proportional vote in Saarland for the first time in the party's history.[66]

Campaign

Major issues

In July 2021, major floods in Europe put the climate issue back on the agenda. The Social Democratic Party called for "everything to be done to stop global warming," while the CDU/CSU wanted to "speed up climate protection measures".[67] By the end of July, 56 per cent of Germans believed that the floods made it "even more important than before" to combat climate change, and 73 per cent believed the government was not doing enough in this area; only the AfD's supporters were overwhelmingly of the opposite opinion.[68] Following those events, six people under the age of 30 began a hunger strike in front of the Reichstag building at the end of August. They demanded a sincere dialogue with the leaders of the main political parties before the elections and the establishment of a citizens' convention to decide on ambitious measures for the climate.[69]

During the deadly German floods of July 2021, while visiting Erftstadt on 18 July, Laschet was caught laughing on camera and making jokes while President Frank-Walter Steinmeier was speaking. Laschet was heavily criticized despite his apology: "It was stupid and shouldn't have happened and I regret it." The CDU/CSU and Laschet's ratings suffered heavily in opinion polls and SPD took the lead.[70][71]

Debates

For the first time since the 2002 election, the four major television broadcasters ARD, ZDF, RTL and ProSieben/Sat.1 will not hold a joint television debate. Separate debates were previously prevented by incumbent chancellor Angela Merkel, who is not running for reelection. For the first time in history, three-way major debates will be held, as the Greens were invited after overtaking the Social Democrats in opinion polls.[72]

2021 German federal election debates
Date Broadcasters  P  Present   S  Surrogate   I  Invited   NI  Not invited  
CDU SPD Greens AfD FDP Left CSU
style="width:6.5em; background:Template:Alliance 90/The Greens/meta/color;" |
17 May 2021[73] RBB Fernsehen NI P
Scholz
P
Baerbock
NI NI NI NI
20 May 2021[74] WDR, tagesschau24 P
Laschet
P
Scholz
P
Baerbock
NI NI NI NI
26 June 2021[75] tagesschau24 P
Laschet
P
Scholz
P
Baerbock
NI NI NI NI
29 August 2021[76] RTL, n-tv P
Laschet
P
Scholz
P
Baerbock
NI NI NI NI
30 August 2021[77] ZDF S
Spahn
S
Giffey
S
Göring-Eckardt
P
Weidel
P
Lindner
P
Bartsch
P
Dobrindt
12 September 2021[72] Das Erste, ZDF P
Laschet
P
Scholz
P
Baerbock
NI NI NI NI
13 September 2021[78] ZDF NI NI NI P
Weidel
S
Kubicki
P
Wissler
S
Blume
13 September[79] Das Erste NI NI NI P
Weidel
P
Lindner
P
Wissler
P
Dobrindt
19 September 2021[80] ProSieben, Sat.1, Kabel eins P
Laschet
P
Scholz
P
Baerbock
NI NI NI NI
23 September 2021[72] Das Erste, ZDF P
Laschet
P
Scholz
P
Baerbock
P
Weidel
P
Lindner
P
Wissler
P
Söder

Members of Parliament not standing for reelection

AfD

Union

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SPD

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FDP

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Greens

The Left

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Independents

Opinion polls

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Poll trackers

Trackers of voting intentions and other election-related polling:

Preliminary results

Party Constituency Party list Total
seats
+/–
Votes % Seats Votes % Seats
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 12,228,363 26.4 121 11,949,756 25.7 85 206 +53
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 10,445,571 22.5 98 8,770,980 18.9 53 151 −49
bgcolor="Template:Alliance 90/The Greens/meta/color" | Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 6,465,502 14.0 16 6,848,215 14.8 102 118 +51
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 4,040,783 8.7 0 5,316,698 11.5 92 92 +12
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 4,694,017 10.1 16 4,802,097 10.3 67 83 −11
Christian Social Union (CSU) 2,787,904 6.0 45 2,402,826 5.2 0 45 −1
The Left (DIE LINKE) 2,306,755 5.0 3 2,269,993 4.9 36 39 −30
style="background-color:Template:South Schleswig Voters' Association/meta/color" | South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW) 34,979 0.1 0 55,330 0.1 1[lower-alpha 16] 1 +1
style="background-color:Template:Free Voters/meta/color;" | Free Voters (FW) 1,334,093 2.9 0 1,127,171 2.4 0 0 0
Human Environment Animal Protection 163,047 0.4 0 674,789 1.5 0 0 0
style="background-color:Template:Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany/meta/color| Grassroots Democratic Party (dieBasis) 734,621 1.6 0 628,432 1.4 0 0 New
Die PARTEI 542,804 1.2 0 461,487 1.0 0 0 0
Team Tödenhofer 5,699 0.0 0 214,281 0.5 0 0 New
Pirate Party Germany (PIRATEN) 60,843 0.1 0 169,889 0.4 0 0 0
style="background-color:Template:Volt Europa/meta/color" | Volt Germany (Volt) 78,211 0.2 0 165,153 0.4 0 0 New
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 152,886 0.3 0 112,351 0.2 0 0 0
National Democratic Party (NPD) 1,089 0.0 0 64,608 0.1 0 0 0
Party for Health Research 2,845 0.0 0 49,331 0.1 0 0 0
style="background-color:Template:Party of Humanists/meta/color" | The Humanists (Humanisten) 12,727 0.0 0 47,838 0.1 0 0 0
style="background-color:Template:Alliance C – Christians for Germany/meta/color" | Alliance C – Christians for Germany 6,218 0.0 0 40,126 0.1 0 0 0
style="background-color:Template:Bavaria Party/meta/color" | Bavaria Party (BP) 36,798 0.1 0 32,901 0.1 0 0 0
style="background-color:Template:V-Partei³/meta/color;" | V-Partei³ 10,679 0.0 0 31,966 0.1 0 0 0
Independents for Citizen-oriented Democracy 13,415 0.0 0 22,770 0.0 0 0 New
The Greys (Die Grauen) 2,354 0.0 0 19,364 0.0 0 0 0
style="background-color:Template:Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany/meta/color" | Marxist–Leninist Party (MLPD) 22,745 0.0 0 17,994 0.0 0 0 0
The Urbans (du.) 1,887 0.0 0 17,861 0.0 0 0 0
German Communist Party (DKP) 5,439 0.0 0 15,157 0.0 0 0 0
Animal Protection Alliance (Tierschutzallianz) 7,369 0.0 0 13,686 0.0 0 0 0
European Party Love (LIEBE) 874 0.0 0 12,946 0.0 0 0 New
style="background-color:Template:Liberal Conservative Reformers/meta/color" | Liberal Conservative Reformers (LKR) 10,826 0.0 0 11,184 0.0 0 0 New
Lobbyists for Children (LfK) 9,195 0.0 0 0 New
The III. Path (III. Weg) 513 0.0 0 7,830 0.0 0 0 New
Garden Party (MG) 2,095 0.0 0 7,611 0.0 0 0 0
Citizens' Movement (Bürgerbewegung) 1,556 0.0 0 7,485 0.0 0 0 New
style="background-color:Template:Democracy in Motion/meta/color" | Democracy in Motion 2,618 0.0 0 7,291 0.0 0 0 0
Human World 657 0.0 0 3,794 0.0 0 0 0
The Pinks/Alliance 21 (BÜNDNIS21) 351 0.0 0 3,537 0.0 0 0 New
Party of Progress (PDF) 3,234 0.0 0 0 New
style="background-color:Template:Socialist Equality Party (Germany)/meta/color" | Socialist Equality Party (SGP) 1,535 0.0 0 0 0
style="background-color:Template:Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität/meta/color" | Civil Rights Movement Solidarity (BüSo) 824 0.0 0 737 0.0 0 0 0
Climate List Baden-Württemberg (Klimaliste) 3,957 0.0 0 0 New
Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE) 1,815 0.0 0 0 0
Democracy by Referendum (Volksabstimmung) 1,085 0.0 0 0 New
Grey Panthers (Graue Panther) 960 0.0 0 0 New
Thuringian Homeland Party (THP) 549 0.0 0 0 New
The Others 258 0.0 0 0 New
Bergpartei, die "ÜberPartei" 222 0.0 0 0 0
Independents and voter groups 110,799 0.2 0 0
Valid votes 46,339,602 98.9 46,419,448 99.1
Invalid/blank votes 499,163 1.1 419,317 0.9
Total votes 46,838,765 100 299 46,838,765 100 436 735 +26
Registered voters/turnout 61,168,234 76.6 61,168,234 76.6
Source: Bundeswahlleiter
Popular vote
SPD
  
25.74%
CDU/CSU
  
24.07%
GRÜNE
  
14.75%
FDP
  
11.45%
AfD
  
10.35%
DIE LINKE
  
4.89%
Other
  
8.74%
Bundestag seats
SPD
  
28.03%
CDU/CSU
  
26.67%
GRÜNE
  
16.05%
FDP
  
12.52%
AfD
  
11.29%
DIE LINKE
  
5.31%
SSW
  
0.14%

Source: Bundeswahlleiter

Results by state

Party list vote share by state
State SPD Union Grüne FDP AfD Linke Others
class="wikitable sortable" style="background:Template:Alliance 90/The Greens/meta/color;"|
 Schleswig-Holstein 28.0 22.0 18.3 12.5 6.8 3.6 8.7
 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 29.1 17.4 7.8 8.2 18.0 11.1 8.4
 Hamburg 29.7 15.5 24.9 11.4 5.0 6.7 6.8
 Lower Saxony 33.1 24.2 16.1 10.5 7.4 3.3 5.4
 Bremen 31.5 17.2 20.8 9.3 6.9 7.7 6.5
 Brandenburg 29.5 15.3 9.0 9.3 18.1 8.5 10.3
 Saxony-Anhalt 25.4 21.0 6.5 9.5 19.6 9.6 8.4
 Berlin 23.5 15.9 22.4 8.1 8.4 11.4 9.4
 North Rhine-Westphalia 29.1 26.0 16.1 11.4 7.3 3.7 6.5
 Saxony 19.3 17.2 8.6 11.0 24.6 9.3 9.9
 Hesse 27.6 22.8 15.8 12.8 8.8 4.3 7.9
 Thuringia 23.4 16.9 6.6 9.0 24.0 11.4 8.7
 Rhineland-Palatinate 29.4 24.7 12.6 11.7 9.2 3.3 9.2
 Bavaria 18.0 31.7 14.1 10.5 9.0 2.8 13.9
 Baden-Württemberg 21.6 24.8 17.2 15.3 9.6 3.3 8.2
 Saarland 37.3 23.6 11.5 10.0 7.2 10.5

Source: Bundeswahlleiter

Post-election

File:2021 German federal election - Results by state.svg
Results of the party list vote by state.

Results

The SPD had their best result since 2005 at 25%; it is also the first time since 2002 that they emerged as the largest party in the Bundestag. For the first time since 1998, the SPD swept all single-member constituency seats in the states of Brandenburg and Saarland, where they defeated cabinet ministers Peter Altmaier and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.[187] They also won all constituencies in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern for the first time, including Vorpommern-Rügen – Vorpommern-Greifswald I, the seat of outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel.[188] It is also the first time they won any single-member constituency seats in Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia since 2005.[189][190][191]

The CDU/CSU had their worst result ever, eclipsing the previous worst of 31% in 1949. Many prominent politicians were defeated in their single-member constituency seats, including ministers Altmaier, Helge Braun, and Kramp-Karrenbauer as well as Hans-Georg Maaßen, Philipp Amthor, and Julia Klöckner, though all of them except Maaßen were still elected to the Bundestag via their respective state party lists.[192] There was speculation that Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet would lose election to the Bundestag;[193] he was placed first on the North Rhine-Westphalia party list, and if the CDU gained overhang seats, that list would not be used. Due to the CDU's bad performance in terms of single-member constituency seats, Laschet is projected to be elected to the Bundestag.[194] The first time since 2005 that they did not win all single-member constituency seats in Bavaria, the CSU also had their worst result in history.[195]

The Greens got their best result in history, nearly doubling from 2017. This is also the first federal election in which they won single-member constituency seats outside of Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg – Prenzlauer Berg East; however, expectations for them were a lot higher, with them polling at over 20% in the summer and peaking at around 25%, having briefly overtaken the CDU in April and May.[196][197] Their slump in the polls was largely attributed to a number of gaffes from and the personal unpopularity of Annalena Baerbock,[198] though polls show that a lot of Green voters migrated to the SPD in the final weeks of the campaign to ensure the CDU would not form government.[199] Though she won in the party-list, Baerbock lost in Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II to SPD's Olaf Scholz by a large margin.[200] The Greens were also disqualified from running on the Saarland state list due to irregularities in the selection of list candidates.[201]

The FDP had their second best showing since German reunification, gaining a few seats to maintain its fourth place position.[202] This was enough to make it a kingmaker alongside the Greens in coalition talks.[203]

The AfD lost seats and went from the third largest to the fifth largest party in the Bundestag. They performed strongly in the former East Germany, where they won 16 single-member constituency seats in Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia.[204]

The Left had their worst showing since 2002, slumping from 69 seats in 2017 to just 39. They did not pass the election threshold of 5% but won at least three single-member constituency seats (two in their stronghold in eastern Berlin, down from four, and one in Saxony), entitling them representation in the Bundestag according to their second votes.[205] Apart from this symbolic defeat, their preferred coalition,[206] a left-wing red–red–green coalition,[207] which was feared by conservatives,[208] who engaged in red-baiting by promoting a Red Scare,[209][210] and an ensuing capital flight to Switzerland in fear of increased taxes for the very rich through higher inheritance taxes and a wealth tax,[211] does not have a majority in the Bundestag.[212] The German financial market rallied as a result.[213][214] Vice President of the Bundestag Petra Pau lost her single-member constituency in Berlin Marzahn – Hellersdorf.[215]

The South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW), a regionalist party only contesting Schleswig-Holstein representing the Danish and Frisian minorities in Southern Schleswig, won their first seat, becoming the first regionalist party to win seats since 1953.[216] Recognized minority parties are exempt from the threshold of 5%, which is how the SSW won a seat with 0.1% of the vote nationwide. The SSW last contested the 1961 West German federal election and last won a seat in the inaugural 1949 West German federal election.[217] Stefan Seidler will sit as their Member of Parliament.[218]

Government formation

On election night, Scholz reiterated his goal to form a government, citing the fact that his party emerged as the largest in parliament.[219] He expressed his preference for a coalition with the FDP and the Greens. [220] Laschet intends to become Chancellor, also stating his preference for a coalition with the FDP and the Greens. Leading figures in the CDU/CSU such as Michael Kretschmer have stated that as the second placed party, the CDU/CSU should not form the government.[221]

The FDP and the Greens have announced that they would talk separately before deciding on a senior coalition partner.[222]

Caretaker government

If coalition negotiations drag on until 17 December, as many think likely, then caretaker chancellor Angela Merkel would overtake Helmut Kohl as the longest-serving chancellor since World War II.[223] She is thought likely to use her remaining time in office to deal with issues such as Ukraine and climate change.[223] Claire Demesmay, an expert on France at the German Council on Foreign Relations, has suggested the reelection prospects of France's President Emmanuel Macron may be improved if Merkel is still in office at the time of the 2022 French presidential election in April.[223]

Notes

  1. 1.0 1.1 Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck are co-lead candidates, while Baerbock is candidate for Chancellor.
  2. Ran in Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II (lost).
  3. The Greens were disqualified from running on the Saarland state list due to irregularities in the selection of list candidates.[1]
  4. Scholz was nominated as the SPD's Chancellor candidate on 10 August 2020 but is not party leader.
  5. Not the incumbent, but stood in this seat and won.
  6. Not the incumbent, but stood in this seat and won.
  7. Bartsch was announced as co-lead candidate on 2 May 2021 but is not party co-leader.
  8. Ran in Frankfurt am Main I (lost).
  9. Ran in Rostock – Landkreis Rostock II (lost).
  10. Weidel was elected co-lead candidate on 24 May 2021 but is not party co-leader.
  11. Ran in Rheinisch-Bergischer Kreis (lost).
  12. Ran in Bodensee (lost).
  13. The election date can only be earlier in the case of an early dissolution, or later if a State of defence is declared.
  14. CSU received 38.8% in Bavaria. It only fields candidates in Bavaria, where the CDU does not field candidates.
  15. The South Schleswig Voters' Association is a recognised minority party representing the Danish and Frisian minorities of Southern Schleswig, and is thus exempt from the 5% electoral threshold.[65]
  16. Parties are usually required to meet a threshold of at least 5% of nationwide votes or win at least 3 constituency seats, but the SSW got a seat nonetheless as a representative of a recognised minority group, an exception enshrined into German electoral law. See Electoral system of Germany#Electoral threshold for further details.

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  152. Horst Andresen (July 23, 2020), Ursula Schulte tritt 2021 nicht mehr an Archived 24 July 2020 at the Wayback Machine Borkener Zeitung.
  153. Interview mit Martin Schulz: „Ich brenne weiter für die Sache“ Archived 26 January 2021 at the Wayback Machine Aachener Nachrichten, December 15, 2020.
  154. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  155. Bundestagswahl wirft Schatten voraus: Wer wechselt vom Landtag in den Bundestag? in: Rundblick – Politikjournal für Niedersachsen Nr. 108/2020, June 10, 2020, p. 3.
  156. Hannoversche SPD-Abgeordnete: Kerstin Tack will nicht wieder in den Bundestag Archived 20 April 2021 at the Wayback Machine Hannoversche Allgemeine Zeitung, August 26, 2020.
  157. „Ich werde nicht mehr kandidieren“(german)
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  159. FDP Niedersachsen: Landesliste der FDP Niedersachsen bis Platz 12 zur Bundestagswahl gewählt, Jun 5, 2021 (german)
  160. Nordbayern.de: Unzufried mit der Arbeit, Britta Dassler fällt bei FDP-Abstimmung durch, (german)
  161. Beendigung meines Bundestagsmandates, (german)
  162. Neue Presse: Schluss mit Bundestag, Ulla Ihnen freut sich auf neue Freizeit, (german)
  163. Südkurier.de: Marcel Klinge verzichtet auf vorderen FDP-Listen-Platz und damit auf die Chance, wieder in den Bundestag gewählt zu werden October 2020, (german)
  164. FDP Baden-Württemberg.de: Gesamtergebnisse 2021, (german)
  165. FDP.NRW.de: Einzelwahlen, (german)
  166. FDP Brandenburg: FDP stellt Landesliste zur Bundestagswahl 2021 auf, (german)
  167. NDR.de: Hamburger FDP wählt Michael Kruse zum Spitzenkandidaten, (german)
  168. Kai Gauselmann (July 8, 2020), In Kritik geraten FDP-Landeschef: Frank Sitta kündigt Rückzug an Archived 20 April 2021 at the Wayback Machine Mitteldeutsche Zeitung.
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  170. Rückzug Hamburger: FDP-Chefin Katja Suding scheidet aus Politik aus Archived 22 September 2020 at the Wayback Machine Der Spiegel, September 5, 2020.
  171. Andreas Dey (September 10, 2020), Anja Hajduk: Grünen-Politikerin zieht sich aus Bundestag zurück Archived 2 December 2020 at the Wayback Machine Hamburger Abendblatt.
  172. Theo Westermann (January 22, 2020), Karlsruher Bundestagsabgeordnete Kotting-Uhl tritt nicht mehr an Archived 23 January 2020 at the Wayback Machine Badische Neueste Nachrichten.
  173. Delegiertenversammlung: Sachsens Grüne gehen mit Spitzentrio in die Bundestagswahl Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk, April 24, 2021.
  174. Ostendorff tritt zur Bundestagswahl 2021 nicht wieder an Topagrar, October 19, 2020.
  175. Was Sie zur Bundestagswahl 2021 in Bochum wissen müssen Rheinische Post, June 6, 2021.
  176. Persönliche Erklärung im November 2020, (german)
  177. Tagesspiegel.de: Abgang mit Knalleffekt Archived 27 February 2021 at the Wayback Machine (german)
  178. Neues Deutschland-Aktuell.de: Nach fast 30 Jahren im Bundestag tritt Ulla Jelpke nicht wieder an. (German)
  179. Frankfurter Rundschau: Die Linke in Hessen: Janine Wissler führt ihre Partei in die Bundestagswahl (german)
  180. Tagesspiegel.de: Berliner Linken Abgeordneter Stefan Liebich will nicht erneut für Bundestag kandidieren Archived 17 March 2021 at the Wayback Machine, (german)
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  182. Movassat.de: Zeit für persönliche Veränderung, June 15, 2020 (german)
  183. Agrarzeitung.de: Tackmann tritt nicht mehr an (german)
  184. Sueddeutsche.de: Andreas Wagner will nicht wieder antreten, (german)
  185. Die Linke-NRW.de: Mit dem Spitzenduo Wagenknecht und Birkwald in den Bundestagswahlkampf, April 2021, (german)
  186. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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