Carlson Curve

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Total cost of sequencing a human genome over time as calculated by the NHGRI.

The Carlson Curve is a term coined by The Economist[1] to describe the biotechnological equivalent of Moore's law, and is named after author Rob Carlson.[2] Carlson predicted that the doubling time of DNA sequencing technologies (measured by cost and performance) would be at least as fast as Moore's law.[3] Carlson Curves illustrate the rapid (in some cases above exponential growth) decreases in cost, and increases in performance, of a variety of technologies, including DNA sequencing, DNA synthesis and a range of physical and computational tools used in protein production and in determining protein structures.

Moore's Law started being profoundly out-paced in January 2008 when the centers transitioned from Sanger sequencing to newer DNA sequencing technologies :[4]

  • 454 sequencing (average read length=300-400 bases): 10-fold
  • Illumina and SOLiD sequencing (average read length=50-100 bases): 30-fold.

References

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