File:Animation of projected annual mean surface air temperature from 1970-2100, based on SRES emissions scenario A1B (NOAA GFDL CM2.1).webm

Summary

Description is based on the NOAA (2011) public-domain source: This animation depicts the time evolution of annual mean surface air temperature changes as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/economics_of_global_warming#Scenarios" class="extiw" title="en:economics of global warming">projected</a> by the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOAA" class="extiw" title="en:NOAA">NOAA</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geophysical_Fluid_Dynamics_Laboratory" class="extiw" title="en:Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory">GFDL</a> CM2.1 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/global_climate_model" class="extiw" title="en:global climate model">climate model</a>. The animations show the time period 1970 to 2100. For each time level shown, the temperature differences (or anomalies) were calculated by subtracting the model-simulated average for the years 1971 to 2000 from the time varying 21st century model-projected temperatures. The change is in response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/greenhouse_gas" class="extiw" title="en:greenhouse gas">greenhouse gases</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/aerosol" class="extiw" title="en:aerosol">aerosols</a> based on a "middle of the road" estimate of future emissions. Future emissions are based on the "A1B" emissions scenario, taken from the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Emissions_Scenarios" class="extiw" title="en:Special Report on Emissions Scenarios">Special Report on Emissions Scenarios</a>. These animations were produced using the output of the CM2.1 "H2" historical experiment for the 20th century time period and the CM2.1 SRES A1B run for the 2001-2100 period.

From the NOAA (2007) public-domain source: The term “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/global_warming" class="extiw" title="en:global warming">global warming</a>” is commonly used to refer to surface air temperature changes that are a response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. However, the warming is not expected to be uniform over the globe, nor is it expected to be the same during all seasons of the year. Computer model simulations conducted at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and elsewhere project that GHG induced warming will be more rapid over land masses than over oceans. In the animation, red colors indicate greater warming over the continents. White and blue-green colors mark areas with the least warming or slight cooling, found mostly over oceans. Additionally, the greatest warming is expected during the winter over northern North America and north-central Asia.

The animation shows variability in year-to-year temperature changes, but generally, earlier years are cooler than later years. The animation starts off (1970s) showing most areas blue (-5 to -2 °F relative to the 1971-2000 average) or yellow (+2 to +3.6 °F). By 2000, yellow begins to dominate. By 2050, most land areas have turned orange or red (+5 to +11 °F), with most ocean areas yellow. By 2099, land areas are more reddish (+9 to +14 °F), with most ocean areas yellow or orange.

References:

• NOAA, January 2007: <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/noaa-gfdl-climate-research-highlights-ar4/?_rewrite_sticky=research/climate/highlights/#patterns">GFDL Climate Modeling Research Highlights:</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/kd/pdf/gfdlhighlight_vol1n6.pdf">Patterns of greenhouse warming (PDF),</a> vol. 1, no. 6, revision 2/2/2007, 8:50.08 AM. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) - Princeton, NJ
• NOAA, 2011: see citation for the animation.

Licensing

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