GLUE (uncertainty assessment)

In hydrology, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is a statistical method for quantifying the uncertainty of model predictions. The method has been introduced by Beven and Binley (1992). The basic idea of GLUE is that given our inability to represent exactly in a mathematical model how nature works, there will always be several different models that mimic equally well an observed natural process (such as river discharge). Such equally acceptable or behavioral models are therefore called equifinal.

The methodology deals with models whose results are expressed as probability distributions of possible outcomes, often in the form of Monte Carlo simulations, and the problem can be viewed as assessing, and comparing between models, how good these representations of uncertainty are. There is an implicit understanding that the models being used are approximations to what might be obtained from a thorough Bayesian analysis of the problem if a fully adequate model of real-world hydrological processes were available.

See also

• Swat-CUP

References

• Beven, K.J. and Binley, A.M., 1992. The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrological Processes, 6, p.279–298.
• Beven, K.J. and Freer, J., 2001a. Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems, Journal of Hydrology, 249, 11–29.
• Beven, K.J., 2006: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. Journal of Hydrology 320, p.18–36
• Beven, K.J., 2007: Towards integrated environmental models of everywhere: uncertainty, data and modelling as a learning process. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11(1), p. 460–467.
• Mantovan, P. and Todini, E., 2006. Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology. Journal of Hydrology, 330(1–2), p. 368–381.
• Stedinger J.R, Vogel R.M., Lee S.U., and Batchelder R., 2008: Appraisal of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method. Water Resources Research, 44.

External links

• Lancaster University sites with list of GLUE papers:
  • http://glue.es.lancs.ac.uk/GLUE_papers.htm
  • http://www.glue-uncertainty.org