United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2012

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United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2012
← 2006 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018 →
Turnout 60.9% (voting eligible)[1]
  Chris murphy official photo govtrends version cropped.jpg Linda McMahon Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic.jpg
Nominee Chris Murphy Linda McMahon
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 815,077 637,857
Percentage 55.1% 43.3%
150px
U.S. Senate election results map. Blue denotes counties/districts won by Murphy. Red denotes those won by McMahon.
U.S. senator before election

Joe Lieberman
Independent

 Elected U.S. Senator

Chris Murphy
Democratic

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2012 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held on November 6, 2012, in conjunction with the 2012 U.S. presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primaries to elect Senate candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties were held on Tuesday, August 14, 2012.[2]

Incumbent U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman, an independent who caucuses with the Democratic Party, decided to retire instead of running for re-election to a fifth term.[3] Republican businesswoman Linda McMahon faced Democratic Representative Chris Murphy in the general election and lost, marking two defeats in as many years.[4]

Background

In the 2006 election, incumbent Joe Lieberman was defeated in the Democratic primary by businessman Ned Lamont and formed his own party, Connecticut for Lieberman, winning re-election. Lieberman promised to remain in the Senate Democratic Caucus, but has since stood up to the Democrats on many significant issues he disagreed with them on, including his endorsement of Republican 2008 presidential nominee John McCain over Barack Obama.[5] As a result, Lieberman's poll numbers among Democrats have dropped significantly.[6][7]

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal was reportedly considering a run against Lieberman,[8] but instead ran for and won Connecticut's other Senate seat in 2010 after U.S. Senator Christopher Dodd announced his retirement.[9]

Lieberman had publicly floated the possibility of running as a Democrat,[10] Republican,[11] or an independent.[12] However, he announced on January 19, 2011, that he would not run for another term.[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Matthew Oakes, activist (endorsed Murphy)[17]
  • William Tong, State Representative (running for re-election; endorsed Murphy)[18]

Debates

The first Democratic debate took place on February 23, 2012, with Murphy, Bysiewicz, and Tong participating.[19] The first televised debate was held on April 5, with Murphy, Bysiewicz, Tong, Oakes, and Whitnum participating.[20] A debate was held at UConn on April 9, with the five candidates participating.[21] A debate sponsored by WFSB took place on April 15, with all five taking part.[22]

Convention

Delegates of the Connecticut Democratic Party endorsed Chris Murphy at their state party convention held on May 12. Murphy was the choice of 1,378 delegates (76 percent), while Susan Bysiewicz won 444 delegates (24 percent), enough to qualify for the August 14 primary. Matthew Oakes received the support of one delegate from Hartford. Lee Whitnum's name was not placed in nomination.[23]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Susan
Bysiewicz		 Chris
Murphy		 William
Tong		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 32% 49% — — 18%
Quinnipiac May 29 – June 3, 2012 538 ± 4.2% 20% 50% — 5% 24%
Quinnipiac March 14–19, 2012 640 ± 3.9% 25% 37% 4% 5% 29%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 33% 39% 8% — 19%
Quinnipiac September 8–13, 2011 447 ± 4.6% 26% 36% 1% 2% 35%
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 38% 40% — — 21%

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chris Murphy 89,283 67.4
Democratic Susan Bysiewicz 43,135 32.6
Total votes 132,418 100

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Debates

A debate sponsored by the Norwich Bulletin took place on April 19, 2012, with McMahon, Shays, Lumaj, Hill, and Westby in attendance.[35] The debate was not televised. The first televised debate took place on April 22, 2012, sponsored by WFSB.[36] All five candidates participated.

Convention

Delegates of the Connecticut Republican Party endorsed Linda McMahon at their state party convention held on May 18. McMahon was the choice of 730 delegates (60 percent), while Chris Shays won 389 delegates (32 percent), enough to qualify for the August 14 primary. Brian K. Hill, Peter Lumaj, and Kie Westby did not meet the 15 percent threshold necessary to automatically qualify for the primary, receiving the support of 62, 22, and 5 delegates, respectively.[37] Hill pursued a post-convention attempt to petition his way onto the primary ballot, but fell short of the 8,319 signatures required and suspended his campaign in June.[38]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Jason
McCoy		 Linda
McMahon		 Chris
Shays		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 400 ± 4.9% — 68% 20% — 12%
Quinnipiac May 29 – June 3, 2012 381 ± 5.0% — 59% 30% 1% 9%
Quinnipiac March 14–19, 2012 429 ± 4.7% — 51% 42% 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 3% 60% 27% — 10%
Quinnipiac September 8–13, 2011 332 ± 5.4% — 50% 35% 2% 12%

Endorsements

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Linda McMahon 83,413 72.7
Republican Chris Shays 31,305 27.3
Total votes 114,718 100

General election

Candidates

  • Linda McMahon (Republican, Independent), businesswoman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[49]
  • Chris Murphy (Democratic, Working Families), U.S. Representative[49]
  • Paul Passarelli (Libertarian)[49]

Debates

Campaign

Susan Bysiewicz was the first to declare herself as a candidate.[50] However, by March 2011 Chris Murphy had raised over $1 million, more than Susan Bysiewicz, who had raised $500,000. Murphy had won election to Connecticut's 5th congressional district, which is considered Republican-leaning, and he promoted himself as the most electable candidate against a Republican challenger. Bysiewicz, the former Secretary of the State of Connecticut, enjoyed high name recognition while a statewide officeholder, and had a formidable face-off with Murphy. William Tong, a state representative, joined the race touting his biography as the son of Chinese immigrants working at a Chinese restaurant.[51] In January East Hartford resident Matthew John Oakes announced his candidacy. Oakes pointed to his real life experience being a disabled American, victim of crime, civil rights activist, growing up in the inner-city and being a political outsider for his candidacy.[52]

Wide speculation continued on Linda McMahon, who had a widely publicized race for senator in 2010. She lost the election decisively, but had strong finances and a well-established political organization.[51] McMahon met with her former campaign consultant to review her 2010 results, and said she was leaning towards running. She plans to make a decision regarding another run after the start of 2012. Congressman Chris Shays joined in August 2011, promoting his involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan's military contracting.[53] Shays campaign has also gained traction from a series of independent polls showing him beating or in dead heat with the top Democratic contenders in the general election, while those same polls show McMahon losing handily to each of the top Democratic contenders.[43] The Shays campaign has quickly capitalized on these polls, arguing for the former Congressman's electability while questioning McMahon's electability due to her loss in an open Senate seat contest in 2010 by a large margin despite spending $50 million of her own money, also citing her high unfavorable numbers among state voters, and the weak fundraising numbers of the McMahon campaign.[54]

In July 2012, Shays declared that he would not support McMahon if she won the primary. He said that he had "never run against an opponent that I have respected less—ever—and there are a lot of candidates I have run against," adding that "I do not believe that Linda McMahon has spent the time, the energy to determine what a senator really means." He also said that during the last debate he had with McMahon, "I thought she was embarrassingly clueless" and that "I think she is a terrible candidate and I think she would make a terrible senator." Although he said he would not support Chris Murphy, he expected him to win the Democratic nomination and the general election.[55]

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Chris Murphy (D) $10,543,456 $10,436,219 $107,239 $189,925
Linda McMahon (R) $50,956,502 $50,262,442 $351,464 $1,250,000
Source: Federal Election Commission[56][57]

Top contributors

Chris Murphy Contribution Linda McMahon Contribution
Moveon.org $112,864 Morgan Stanley $31,050
Yale University $69,101 Linda McMahon for Senate $26,174
League of Conservation Voters $47,388 General Electric $24,250
Koskoff, Koskoff & Bieder $44,916 Ott International $15,000
Travelers Companies $41,000 Thor Industries $12,500
Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company $40,650 JPMorgan Chase & Co. $11,231
Sullivan & Cromwell $36,500 Ceci Brothers Inc. $10,000
Comcast Corporation $36,000 Invemed Associates $10,000
Shipman & Goodwin $35,511 Midstream Partners $10,000
Northeast Utilities $34,789 Tudor Investment Corporation $10,000
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[58]

Top industries

Chris Murphy Contribution Linda McMahon Contribution
Retired $1,041,795 Financial Institutions $121,717
Lawyers/Law Firms $861,258 Retired $81,949
Financial Institutions $580,370 Misc Business $55,302
Real Estate $319,466 Manufacturing & Distributing $46,500
Leadership PACs $302,500 Misc Finance $38,050
Insurance Industry $302,025 Business Services $28,932
Health Professionals $285,150 Real Estate $27,000
Democratic/Liberal $267,018 Republican/Conservative $25,630
Universities $232,951 Candidate Committees $24,874
Business Services $228,550 Lawyers/Law Firms $24,372
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[59]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Chris
Murphy (D)		 Linda
McMahon (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2012 1,220 ± 2.8% 52% 43% — 4%
Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 51% 45% 1% 3%
Quinnipiac October 19–22, 2012 1,412 ± 2.6% 49% 43% 1% 7%
Rasmussen Reports October 21, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 47% 2% 3%
SurveyUSA October 19–21, 2012 575 ± 4.2% 47% 43% 3% 4%
Mason-Dixon October 15–17, 2012 625 ± 4% 44% 44% — 12%
Public Policy Polling/LCV October 15–16, 2012 1,015 ± 3.1% 48% 44% — 8%
Univ. of Connecticut/Hartford Courant October 11–16, 2012 574 ± 4% 44% 38% — 17%
Siena Research Institute October 4–14, 2012 552 ± 4.2% 46% 44% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports October 7, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 51% 46% 2% 1%
Quinnipiac University Poll September 28–October 2, 2012 1,696 ± 2.5% 47% 48% — 5%
Public Policy Polling September 24–26, 2012 801 ± 3.5% 48% 42% — 10%
Univ. of Connecticut/Hartford Courant September 11–16, 2012 517 ± 4.0% 37% 33% 1% 28%
Quinnipiac August 22–26, 2012 1,472 ± 2.6% 46% 49% — 4%
Public Policy Polling August 22–23, 2012 881 ± 3.3% 48% 44% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports August 21, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 49% — 5%
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 771 ± 3.5% 50% 42% — 8%
Quinnipiac May 29–June 3, 2012 1,408 ± 2.6% 46% 43% — 9%
Quinnipiac March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ± 2.4% 52% 37% — 9%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 592 ± 4.0% 50% 43% — 6%
Quinnipiac September 8–13, 2011 1,230 ± 2.8% 49% 38% — 11%
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 822 ± 3.4% 54% 38% — 9%

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Hypothetical polling
With Mark Boughton
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		 Mark
Boughton (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 822 ± 3.4% 44% 34% 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Chris
Murphy (D)		 Mark
Boughton (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 822 ± 3.4% 52% 29% 19%
With Susan Bysiewicz
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		 Linda
McMahon (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 771 ± 3.5% 45% 42% 13%
Quinnipiac May 29 – June 3, 2012 1,408 ± 2.6% 42% 46% 9%
Quinnipiac March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ± 2.4% 49% 39% 9%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 592 ± 4.0% 47% 46% 7%
Quinnipiac September 8–13, 2011 1,230 ± 2.8% 46% 38% 12%
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 822 ± 3.4% 50% 39% 12%
With Michael Fedele
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		 Michael
Fedele (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 822 ± 3.4% 45% 35% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Chris
Murphy (D)		 Michael
Fedele (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 822 ± 3.4% 51% 29% 20%
With Scott Frantz
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		 Scott
Frantz (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 822 ± 3.4% 45% 30% 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Chris
Murphy (D)		 Scott
Frantz (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 822 ± 3.4% 51% 27% 22%
With Joe Lieberman
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Joe
Lieberman (I)		 Chris
Murphy (D)		 Peter
Schiff (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2010 810 ± 3.4% 19% 39% 25% 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Joe
Lieberman (I)		 Chris
Murphy (D)		 Jodi
Rell (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2010 810 ± 3.4% 17% 37% 29% 17%
810 ± 3.4% 33% 47% — 20%
Research 2000 January 11–13, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 23% 25% 47% 2%
600 ± 4.0% 26% 45% — —
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Joe
Lieberman (I)		 Ned
Lamont (D)		 Jodi
Rell (R)		 Undecided
Research 2000 September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4.0% 26% 26% 46% 2%
Research 2000 March 23–25, 2008 600 ± 4.0% 25% 30% 42% 2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Joe
Lieberman (I)		 Ned
Lamont (D)		 Alan
Schlesinger (R)		 Undecided
Research 2000 November 11–13, 2008 600 ± 4.0% 34% 59% 3% 2%
Research 2000 June 30 – July 2, 2008 600 ± 4.0% 36% 51% 7% 6%
Research 2000 March 31 – April 2, 2008 600 ± 4.0% 37% 51% 7% 5%
With Chris Shays
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		 Chris
Shays (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 771 ± 3.5% 40% 43% 17%
Quinnipiac May 29 – June 3, 2012 1,408 ± 2.6% 40% 44% 11%
Quinnipiac March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ± 2.4% 42% 43% 13%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 592 ± 4.0% 37% 48% 16%
Quinnipiac September 8–13, 2011 1,230 ± 2.8% 40% 42% 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Chris
Murphy (D)		 Chris
Shays (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 771 ± 3.5% 47% 38% 15%
Quinnipiac May 29 – June 3, 2012 1,408 ± 2.6% 45% 37% 15%
Quinnipiac March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ± 2.4% 41% 40% 17%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 592 ± 4.0% 43% 39% 18%
Quinnipiac September 8–13, 2011 1,230 ± 2.8% 43% 37% 17%
With Rob Simmons
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Susan
Bysiewicz (D)		 Rob
Simmons (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 592 ± 4.0% 41% 42% 17%
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 822 ± 3.4% 42% 39% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Chris
Murphy (D)		 Rob
Simmons (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 592 ± 4.0% 45% 36% 20%
Public Policy Polling March 17–20, 2011 822 ± 3.4% 49% 34% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 William
Tong (D)		 Rob
Simmons (R)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 592 ± 4.0% 32% 39% 29%
With William Tong
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 William
Tong (D)		 Linda
McMahon (R)		 Undecided
Quinnipiac March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ± 2.4% 39% 43% 9%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 592 ± 4.0% 38% 45% 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 William
Tong (D)		 Chris
Shays (R)		 Undecided
Quinnipiac March 14–19, 2012 1,622 ± 2.4% 25% 50% 21%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 592 ± 4.0% 27% 46% 27%

Results

United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2012[60]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Chris Murphy 828,761 55.1% +15.4
Republican Linda McMahon 651,089 43.3% +33.7
Libertarian Paul Passarelli 25,045 1.7% +1.7
Majority 177,672 11.8%
Total votes 1,504,895 100 -
Turnout
Democratic gain from Independent Swing

Note: Murphy also appeared on the line of the Connecticut Working Families Party and received 37,553 votes on it. His Working Families and Democratic votes have been aggregated together on this table.

See also

References

  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  4. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  5. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  10. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  12. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  15. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  19. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  22. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  23. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  24. ↑ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNL7_WTBui0
  25. ↑ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fp9Y0RGel78
  26. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 http://ctsenate2012.nhregister.com/2012/06/26/afl-cio-convention-endorses-chris-murphy-chris-shays-tells-labor-he-backs-xl-keystone-pipeline/
  29. ↑ EMILY's List
  30. ↑ Brian Hill for Senate, again | The Connecticut Mirror
  31. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  32. ↑ McMahon Jumps In for Second Senate Bid : Roll Call Politics
  33. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  34. ↑ Ex-Rep. Shays Makes Senate Bid Official : Roll Call Politics
  35. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  36. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  37. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  38. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  39. ↑ 39.0 39.1 You Are Invited :: Shays for Senate – Piryx
  40. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  41. ↑ Christopher Shays
  42. ↑ /www.shaysforussenate.com/home/
  43. ↑ 43.0 43.1 'Electability' the new buzzword in U.S. Senate race | The Connecticut Mirror
  44. ↑ Shays looks forward to the primary – Connecticut Post
  45. ↑ http://ameribornnews.com/blog/2012/07/norwich-bulletin-editorial-board-endorses-chris-shays-for-u-s-senate-republican-candidate/
  46. ↑ http://ctsenate2012.nhregister.com/2012/06/21/league-of-conservation-voters-action-fund-supports-chris-shays-and-chris-murphy/
  47. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  48. ↑ GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements
  49. ↑ 49.0 49.1 49.2 http://www.statementofvote-sots.ct.gov/StatementOfVote/WebModules/ReportsLink/CLNWUSSenView.aspx?Parameter=11/06/2012-General
  50. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  51. ↑ 51.0 51.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  52. ↑ Connecticut Resident Matthew John Oakes Enters U.S. Senate Race | PRLog
  53. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  54. ↑ Shays Cites Reasons for Optimism in Race Against McMahon – Hotline On Call
  55. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  56. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  57. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  58. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  59. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  60. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

External links

Official campaign websites
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