United States Senate election in Florida, 2012

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United States Senate election in Florida, 2012

← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout 63.5% (voting eligible)[1]
  Bill Nelson.jpg Connie Mack, official portrait, 112th Congress 2.jpg
Nominee Bill Nelson Connie Mack IV
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 4,523,451 3,458,267
Percentage 55.23% 42.23%

Fl-sen-2012.png
County results

U.S. senator before election

Bill Nelson
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bill Nelson[2]
Democratic

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The 2012 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Congress, as well as various state and local elections. The primary election was held August 14, 2012. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bill Nelson won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican U.S. Representative Connie Mack IV by 13%, winning 55% - 42%. Nelson defeated Mack by over 1 million votes.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bill Nelson (Incumbent) 684,804 78.7
Democratic Glenn Burkett 184,815 21.3
Total votes 869,619 100

Republican primary

Candidates

Qualified

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
George
LeMieux
Connie
Mack IV
Mike
McCalister
Dave
Weldon
Someone
else
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 47% 10% 14% 6% 23%
Quinnipiac June 12–18, 2012 698 ± 3.7% 8% 41% 5% 3% 1% 39%
Public Policy Polling May 31–June 3, 2012 448 ± 4.6% 13% 34% 10% 6% 9% 28%

Endorsements

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Connie Mack IV 657,331 58.7
Republican Dave Weldon 226,083 20.2
Republican Mike McCalister 155,421 13.9
Republican Marielena Stuart 81,808 7.3
Total votes 1,120,643 100

General election

General election results
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bill Nelson (Incumbent) 4,523,451 55.2 -5.1
Republican Connie Mack IV 3,458,267 42.2 +4.1
Independent Bill Gaylor 126,079 1.5 n/a
Independent Chris Borgia 82,089 1.0 n/a
Write-ins 60 0.0 n/a
Majority 1,065,184 13.0 -9.2
Turnout 8,189,946
Democratic hold Swing

Candidates

Debates

A debate hosted by Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association occurred on October 17 at the Nova Southeastern University campus in Davie.

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Bill Nelson (D) $13,404,998 $15,494,167 $994,324 $0
Connie Mack (R) $7,272,224 $7,526,150 $155,076 $81,880
Chris Borgia (I) $12,344 $12,198 $145 $9,950
Bill Gaylor (I) $19,604 $19,195 $0 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[44][45][46][47]

Top contributors

Bill Nelson Contribution Connie Mack Contribution Bill Gaylor Contribution
Morgan & Morgan $138,150 Club for Growth $189,168 Bill & Sheila Gaylor Insurance Professionals $7,905
Finmeccanica S.p.A. $71,967 Elliott Management Corporation $46,997 Circle Redmont $1,432
InDyne, Inc. $64,735 Koch Industries $33,500
Harris Corporation $59,750 Vestar Capital Partners $32,000
Akerman Senterfitt LLP $59,300 Island Doctors $27,400
Greenberg Traurig $52,589 Adams & Diaco $25,000
Kindred Healthcare $21,000 Health Management Associates $21,000
Holland & Knight $46,747 Flo-Sun Inc $18,500
Leon Medical Centers $45,800 US Sugar Corporation $18,000
Vestar Capital Partners $40,650 MasTec, Inc. $17,800
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[48]

Top industries

Bill Nelson Contribution Connie Mack Contribution Bill Gaylor Contribution
Lawyers/Law firms $2,383,484 Retired $885,121 Retired $1,500
Retired $938,280 Republican/Conservative $412,944
Real Estate $606,253 Financial Institutions $360,334
Health Professionals $529,282 Real Estate $298,642
Lobbyists $493,087 Leadership PACs $280,500
Financial Institutions $418,915 Misc Finance $216,836
Hospitals/Nursing Homes $364,617 Health Professionals $199,159
Leadership PACs $337,000 Lawyers/Law Firms $169,921
Insurance Industry $319,788 Petroleum Industry $136,400
Health Services/HMOs $276,500 Business Services $128,777
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[49]

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[50] In Florida, the money was to be spent by its affiliate, American Crossroads.[50]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Connie
Mack IV (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 3–4, 2012 955 ± 3.2% 51% 46% 3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion November 1–3, 2012 525 ± 4.3% 53% 45% 2%
Mason-Dixon October 30–November 1, 2012 800 ± 3.5% 49% 43% 4%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 30–November 1, 2012 1,545 ± 2.5% 52% 43% 1% 5%
Reuters/Ipsos October 29–31, 2012 716 ± 4.2% 52% 42% 1% 6%
Gravis Marketing October 30, 2012 549 ± 4.2% 49% 46% 5%
Zogby/Newsmax October 27–29, 2012 828 ± 3.5% 50% 41% 9%
Zogby/Newsmax October 26–28, 2012 827 ± 3.5% 50% 41% 9%
Public Policy Polling October 26–28, 2012 687 ± 3.7% 50% 42% 9%
CBS/Quinnipiac University October 23–28, 2012 1,073 ± 3.0% 52% 39% 9%
WFLA-TV/SurveyUSA October 25–27, 2012 595 ± 4.1% 48% 41% 4% 7%
Rasmussen Reports October 25, 2012 750 ± 4.0% 49% 46% 2% 3%
Mason-Dixon October 22–24, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 47% 44% 9%
Sunshine State News/VSS October 22–24, 2012 1,001 ± 3.1% 49% 44% 7%
Pharos Research October 19–21, 2012 759 ± 3.6% 52% 44% 5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 18–20, 2012 502 ± 4.5% 56% 39% 4%
Rasmussen Reports October 18, 2012 750 ± 4.0% 48% 43% 2% 7%
Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers/WPTV October 17–18, 2012 800 ± 4.0% 45% 41% 14%
SurveyUSA October 17–18, 2012 600 ± 4.1% 48% 40% 4% 8%
Public Policy Polling October 12–14, 2012 791 ± 3.4% 45% 37% 18%
Rasmussen Reports October 11, 2012 750 ± 4.0% 46% 45% 5% 5%
TBT/Miami Herald October 8–10, 2012 800 ± 3.5% 47% 42% 4% 7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll October 7–9, 2012 988 ± 3.1% 52% 39% 9%
University of North Florida October 1–9, 2012 800 ± 3.5% 50% 40% 10%
Rasmussen Reports October 4, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 52% 41% 1% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll September 30–October 1, 2012 890 ± 3.3% 52% 41% 7%
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 40% 34% 5% 20%
TBT/Miami Herald September 17–19, 2012 800 ± 3.5% 48% 40% 11%
Fox News Poll September 16–18, 2012 829 ± 3.0% 49% 35% 2% 12%
Rasmussen Reports September 12, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 40% 5% 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll September 9–11, 2012 980 ± 3.1% 51% 37% 12%
SurveyUSA September 7–9, 2012 596 ± 4.1% 47% 36% 3% 9%
Public Policy Polling August 31–September 2, 2012 1,548 ± 2.5% 45% 38% 17%
Quinnipiac August 15–21, 2012 1,241 ± 2.8% 50% 41% 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 15, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 40% 3% 10%
Quinnipiac July 24–30, 2012 1,177 ± 2.9% 47% 40% 1% 12%
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 871 ± 3.3% 45% 43% 13%
Survey USA July 17–19, 2012 647 ± 3.9% 42% 48% 2% 8%
Mason-Dixon July 9–11, 2012 800 ± 3.5% 47% 42% 11%
Rasmussen Reports July 9, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 37% 46% 7% 10%
Quinnipiac June 19–25, 2012 1,200 ± 2.8% 41% 40% 1% 17%
Quinnipiac June 12–18, 2012 1,697 ± 2.4% 43% 39% 15%
Public Policy Polling May 31–June 3, 2012 642 ± 3.9% 49% 36% 15%
Marist May 17–20, 2012 1,078 ± 3.0% 46% 42% 12%
Quinnipiac May 15–21, 2012 1,722 ± 2.4% 41% 42% 3% 15%
Rasmussen Reports April 25, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 36% 10% 7%
Public Policy Polling April 12–15, 2012 700 ± 3.7% 47% 37% 17%
Quinnipiac March 20–26, 2012 1,228 ± 2.8% 44% 36% 3% 17%
Rasmussen Reports March 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 36% 43% 5% 16%
Rasmussen Reports February 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 41% 41% 5% 12%
Mason-Dixon January 24–26, 2012 800 ± 3.5% 45% 42% 13%
Suffolk University January 22–24, 2012 600 ± 4.4% 42% 32% 1% 25%
Quinnipiac January 4–8, 2012 1,412 ± 2.6% 41% 40% 1% 16%
Public Policy Polling November 28–December 1, 2011 700 ± 3.7% 46% 35% 19%
Rasmussen Reports November 17, 2011 500 ± 4.5% 39% 43% 5% 13%
Quinnipiac October 31–November 7, 2011 1,185 ± 2.9% 42% 40% 1% 16%
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 47% 34% 18%
Mason-Dixon February 9–10, 2011 625 ± 4.0% 45% 40% 15%
Public Policy Polling December 17–20, 2010 1,034 ± 3.0% 44% 36% 20%
Public Policy Polling October 9–10, 2010 448 ± 4.6% 42% 33% 25%

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Hypothetical polling

Republican primary

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Adam
Hasner
George
LeMieux
Connie
Mack IV
Mike
McCalister
Craig
Miller
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2012 1,087 ± 3% 3% 8% 39% 4% 3% 42%
Public Policy Polling January 28–29, 2012 733 ± 3.6% 4% 8% 36% 5% 3% 44%
Public Policy Polling January 28, 2012 387 ± 5.0% 4% 6% 36% 5% 3% 46%
Miami Herald/War Room Logistics January 27, 2012 1,632 ± 2.5% 2.7% 6.2% 33.0% 3.2% 2.3% 52.6%
Mason-Dixon January 24–26, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 4% 12% 38% 7% 1% 38%
Dixie Strategies/First Coast News January 23–25, 2012 2,567 ± 1.93% 3.81% 6.91% 28.88% 3.36% 1.78% 55.26%
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 470 ± 4.5% 3% 12% 40% 4% 3% 38%
Quinnipiac October 31–November 7, 2011 513 ± 4.3% 2% 9% 32% 6% 2% 51%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 472 ± 4.5% 9% 13% 17% 3% 58%
Quinnipiac September 14–19, 2011 374 ± 5.1% 5% 17% 5% 11% 62%
Quinnipiac July 27–August 2, 2011 510 ± 4.3% 6% 12% 15% 8% 60%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mike
Haridopolos
Adam
Hasner
George
LeMieux
Mike
McCalister
Other/
Unde-
cided
Quinnipiac May 17–23, 2011 463 ± 4.6% 13% 4% 14% 64%
Sunshine State Communications May 12–13, 2011 458 ± 4.58% 11% 0% 9% 4% 64%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Vern
Buchanan
Jennifer
Carroll
Mike
Haridopolos
Adam
Hasner
George
LeMieux
Nick
Loeb
Will
McBride
Mike
McCalister
Joe
Scarborough
Daniel
Webster
Other/
Unde-
cided
Suffolk University/7 News April 10–12, 2011 217 ± 4% 5% 3% 2% 1% 4% 1% 3% 0% 6% 7% 67%

General election

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Vern
Buchanan (R)
Other Undecided
Mason-Dixon August 18–22, 2011 625 ± 4.0% 45% 35% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Jeb
Bush (R)
Other Undecided
Mason-Dixon February 9–10, 2011 625 ± 4.0% 41% 49% 10%
Public Policy Polling December 17–20, 2010 1,034 ± 3.0% 44% 49% 7%
Public Policy Polling July 16–18, 2010 900 ± 3.26% 46% 44% 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Mike
Haridopolos (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 848 ± 3.4% 47% 35% 18%
Quinnipiac May 17–23, 2011 1,196 ± 2.8% 47% 26% 2% 22%
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 50% 34% 17%
Mason-Dixon February 9–10, 2011 625 ± 4.0% 48% 27% 25%
Public Policy Polling December 17–20, 2010 1,034 ± 3.0% 44% 32% 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Adam
Hasner (R)
Other Undecided
Suffolk University January 22–24, 2012 600 ± 4.4% 47% 23% 2% 28%
Public Policy Polling November 28–December 1, 2011 700 ± 3.7% 48% 33% 19%
Rasmussen Reports November 17, 2011 500 ± 4.5% 40% 31% 9% 19%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 476 ± 4.5% 49% 35% 16%
Mason-Dixon August 18–22, 2011 625 ± 4.0% 45% 34% 21%
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 848 ± 3.4% 47% 35% 19%
Quinnipiac May 17–23, 2011 1,196 ± 2.8% 48% 23% 3% 24%
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 48% 32% 20%
Mason-Dixon February 9–10, 2011 625 ± 4.0% 46% 24% 30%
Public Policy Polling December 17–20, 2010 1,034 ± 3.0% 46% 30% 25%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
George
LeMieux (R)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac June 12–18, 2012 1,697 ± 2.4% 47% 32% 1% 17%
Public Policy Polling May 31–June 3, 2012 642 ± 3.9% 48% 35% 17%
Marist May 17–20, 2012 1,078 ± 3% 46% 42% 12%
Rasmussen Reports April 25, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 30% 9% 17%
Public Policy Polling April 12–15, 2012 700 ± 3.7% 48% 34% 18%
Rasmussen Reports March 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 41% 38% 5% 17%
Rasmussen Reports February 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 45% 35% 5% 15%
Mason-Dixon January 24–26, 2012 800 ± 3.5% 48% 33% 19%
Suffolk University January 22–24, 2012 600 ± 4.4% 46% 22% 2% 30%
Public Policy Polling November 28–December 1, 2011 700 ± 3.7% 47% 32% 20%
Rasmussen Reports November 17, 2011 500 ± 4.5% 39% 33% 10% 18%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 476 ± 4.5% 49% 35% 15%
Mason-Dixon August 18–22, 2011 625 ± 4.0% 49% 34% 17%
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 848 ± 3.4% 46% 35% 19%
Quinnipiac May 17–23, 2011 1,196 ± 2.8% 47% 27% 2% 22%
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 48% 33% 19%
Mason-Dixon February 9–10, 2011 625 ± 4.0% 49% 35% 16%
Public Policy Polling December 17–20, 2010 1,034 ± 3.0% 47% 36% 17%
Public Policy Polling July 16–18, 2010 900 ± 3.26% 49% 28% 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Rush
Limbaugh (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 9–10, 2010 448 ± 4.6% 50% 36% 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Mike
McCalister (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 871 ± 3.3% 45% 40% 15%
Quinnipiac June 12–18, 2012 1,697 ± 2.4% 45% 34% 1% 18%
Public Policy Polling May 31–June 3, 2012 642 ± 3.9% 47% 33% 20%
Rasmussen Reports April 25, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 29% 7% 15%
Public Policy Polling April 12–15, 2012 700 ± 3.7% 47% 35% 19%
Rasmussen Reports March 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 42% 38% 4% 15%
Rasmussen Reports February 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 43% 37% 5% 15%
Suffolk University January 22–24, 2012 600 ± 4.4% 45% 26% 2% 28%
Public Policy Polling November 28–December 1, 2011 700 ± 3.7% 47% 32% 21%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 476 ± 4.5% 47% 34% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Craig
Miller (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 28–December 1, 2011 700 ± 3.7% 49% 30% 21%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011 476 ± 4.5% 49% 32% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Joe
Scarborough (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 45% 32% 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Jimmy
Wales (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 24–27, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 47% 28% 25%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Dave
Weldon (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012 871 ± 3.3% 46% 39% 15%
Quinnipiac June 12–18, 2012 1,697 ± 2.4% 47% 31% 1% 19%
Public Policy Polling May 31–June 3, 2012 642 ± 3.9% 47% 31% 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Allen
West (R)
Other Undecided
Mason-Dixon August 18–22, 2011 625 ± 4.0% 44% 38% 18%

See also

References

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  5. Connie Mack IV Officially Joins Florida Senate Race : Roll Call Politics
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  9. Alexander George withdraws U.S. Senate Race- Endorses Senator George LeMieux | PRLog
  10. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. Balderas, Hasner file paperwork for Senate bids – David Catanese – POLITICO.com
  12. Hasner phoned Mack, not LeMieux – POLITICO.com
  13. Florida: Craig Miller Drops Senate Bid, Runs for House | At the Races
  14. Conservative Senate Candidate Ron Rushing Takes Aim at Politicians | Sunshine State News
  15. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  16. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. Hasner Nabs Former Florida Speaker’s Endorsement : Roll Call Politics
  18. Buchanan Closes Door on Senate Run – Hotline On Call
  19. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. Looking beyond Connie Mack and U.S. Senate race – Marc Caputo – MiamiHerald.com
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  25. West: I'm Not Running For Senate – Hotline On Call
  26. Allen West shuts door on Senate race – David Catanese – POLITICO.com
  27. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. 28.0 28.1 28.2 LeMieux wins endorsements of three legislators – Central Florida Political Pulse – Orlando Sentinel
  29. 29.0 29.1 29.2 George LeMieux receives endorsement of three more FL lawmakers, Sen. Garcia & Reps Fred Costello and Charles Van Zant | Saint Petersblog
  30. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  32. Sen. Rand Paul endorses Connie Mack in Senate race | Naked Politics
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  39. In Naples, Sean Hannity throws support behind Connie Mack | Florida politics blog: The Buzz | Tampa Bay Times
  40. Endorsement reversal: Haridopolos backs pal Connie Mack in U.S. Senate race | Post on Politics
  41. GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements
  42. Iraq vet Chris Borgia announces US Senate run (Orlando Sentinel)
  43. qualifies for U.S. Senate Run
  44. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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External links

Official campaign websites