United States Senate election in Montana, 2006
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| Elections in Montana | |||||||||
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The 2006 United States Senate election in Montana was held November 7, 2006. The filing deadline was March 23; the primary was held on June 6. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Conrad Burns was running for re-election to a fourth term, but was defeated by Democrat Jon Tester by a margin of 0.87%, or 3,562 votes out of 406,505 votes.
Contents
Background
Burns was first elected as a United States Senator from Montana in 1988, when he defeated Democratic incumbent John Melcher in a close race, 51% to 48%. Burns was re-elected 62.4% to 37.6%, over Jack Mudd in the so-called Republican Revolution year of 1994. In 2000, Burns faced the well-financed Brian Schweitzer whom he beat 50.6% to 47.2%.
In 2000, George W. Bush carried Montana 58% to 33% in the race for President, but Burns won by 3.4%. Since the direct election of Senators began in 1913, Burns is only the second Republican Montana has elected to the U.S. Senate. Also, for thirty-two straight years, 1952 to 1984, Montana elected only Democratic Senators.
Burns' involvement in the Jack Abramoff scandal made him vulnerable[citation needed]. A SurveyUSA poll released in March 2006 found that 38% of Montanans approved of him, while 52% disapproved of him.[1] Polls against leading Democratic candidates had him below his challengers[citation needed].
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Jon Tester, President of the Montana State Senate
- John Morrison, Montana State Auditor
- Paul Richards, Montana State Representative
- Robert Candee, farmer
- Ken Marcure, activist
Campaign
On May 31, 2006, Richards, citing the closeness of the race, and his own position (third) in the polls, withdrew from the race, and threw his support to Tester.[2] Morrison started off strong in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator, collecting $1.05 million as of the start of 2006, including $409,241 in the last three months of 2005.[3] but Morrison’s advantages in fundraising and name identification did not translate into a lead in the polls.[4] Later, the race was called a "deadlock,"[5] but Tester continued to gather momentum.
Results
| Democratic primary results[6] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Democratic | Jon Tester | 65,757 | 60.77 | |
| Democratic | John Morrison | 38,394 | 35.48 | |
| Democratic | Paul Richards | 1,636 | 1.51 | |
| Democratic | Robert Candee | 1,471 | 1.36 | |
| Democratic | Kenneth Marcure | 940 | 0.87 | |
| Total votes | 108,198 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Conrad Burns, incumbent U.S. Senator
- Bob Keenan, Montana State Senator
- Bob Kelleher, perennial candidate
- Daniel Lloyd Neste Huffman, businessman
Results
| Republican primary results[6] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Conrad Burns (inc.) | 70,434 | 72.26 | |
| Republican | Bob Keenan | 21,754 | 22.32 | |
| Republican | Bob Kelleher | 4,082 | 4.19 | |
| Republican | Daniel Loyd Neste Huffman | 1,203 | 1.23 | |
| Total votes | 97,473 | 100.00 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Conrad Burns (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Stan Jones (L), activist
- Jon Tester (D), State Senator
Campaign
The race was expected to be close, due to Burns' previous narrow winning margins and recent political scandal involving him personally; Republican incumbents everywhere were facing more challenging races in 2006 due to the waning popularity of Congress and the leadership of President George W. Bush. In July 2006, the Rasmussen report viewed Burns as the "second most vulnerable Senator seeking re-election this year (Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum was still the most vulnerable)."[7]
Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by 3.4% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%[citation needed]. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party[citation needed] and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal[citation needed], made this a highly competitive race.
On July 27, Burns was forced to apologize after he confronted out of state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill; Burns was strongly criticized.[8]
On August 31, in a letter faxed to the office of Montana governor Brian Schweitzer, Burns urged the governor, a Democrat, to declare a fire state of emergency and activate the Montana Army National Guard for firefighting. Schweitzer had already declared such a state of emergency on July 11 — thus, activating the Montana Army National Guard. He issued a second declaration on August 11. James Pendleton, a Burns spokesman, said the senator was "pretty sure" Schweitzer had already issued such a disaster declaration, but just wanted to make sure. "The genesis of the letter was just to make sure that all the bases were covered," Pendleton said. "This is not a political football. It’s just a cover-the-bases letter and certainly casts no aspersions on the governor."[9]
Polling
| Source | Date | Tester (D) | Burns (R) | Jones (L) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint Polling and Research | November 6, 2006 | 49% | 44% | |
| USA Today/Gallup | November 4, 2006 | 50% | 41% | |
| Rasmussen | November 3, 2006 | 50% | 46% | |
| Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy | November 3, 2006 | 47% | 47% | 1% |
| Reuters/Zogby | October 31, 2006 | 47% | 46% | 2% |
| Rasmussen | October 29, 2006 | 51% | 47% | |
| Harstad Strategic (D) | October 25, 2006 | 48% | 42% | |
| Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC | October 24, 2006 | 46% | 43% | |
| Montana State University-Billings | October 19, 2006 | 46% | 35% | |
| Rasmussen | October 18, 2006 | 48% | 46% | |
| Rasmussen | October 11, 2006 | 49% | 42% | |
| Reuters/Zogby | October 5, 2006 | 46% | 42% | |
| Mason-Dixon | October 1, 2006 | 47% | 40% | 3% |
| Rasmussen | September 20, 2006 | 50% | 43% | |
| Rasmussen | September 13, 2006 | 52% | 43% | |
| Gallup | September 5, 2006 | 48% | 45% | |
| Lake Research (D) | August 10, 2006 | 44% | 37% | |
| Rasmussen | August 10, 2006 | 47% | 47% | |
| Rasmussen | July 11, 2006 | 50% | 43% | |
| Lake Research (D) | June 20–26, 2006 | 43% | 42% | |
| Mason Dixon | May 28, 2006 | 45% | 42% | |
| Rasmussen | May 16, 2006 | 48% | 44% | |
| Ayres McHenry & Associates (R) | May 2, 2006 | 48% | 42% | |
| Rasmussen | April 15, 2006 | 44% | 47% | |
| Rasmussen | March 20, 2006 | 46% | 43% | |
| Rasmussen | February 13, 2006 | 46% | 46% | |
| Rasmussen | January 11, 2006 | 45% | 45% | |
| Mason Dixon | December 24, 2005 | 35% | 49% | |
| Rasmussen | September 8, 2005 | 38% | 51% | |
| Mason Dixon | May, 2005 | 26% | 50% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jon Tester | 199,845 | 49.16% | +1.92% | |
| Republican | Conrad Burns (incumbent) | 196,283 | 48.29% | -2.27% | |
| Libertarian | Stan Jones | 10,377 | 2.55% | ||
| Majority | 3,562 | 0.88% | -2.44% | ||
| Turnout | 406,505 | ||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | Swing | ||||
Due to errors with polling machines the Montana count was delayed well into Wednesday 8 November. The race was too close to call throughout the night and many pundits predicted the need for a recount. After a very close election, on November 9, incumbent Conrad Burns conceded defeat.[11]
Just before 11:00 AM (MST) on November 8, Jon Tester was declared Senator-elect for Montana in USA Today.[12] At 2:27 PM EST on November 8, CNN projected that Jon Tester would win the race.[13]
Under Montana law, if the margin of defeat is more than 0.25% but less than 0.5%, the losing candidate can request a recount if they pay for it themselves.[14] However, this election did not qualify for a recount because the margin was larger than 0.5%. Burns conceded the race on November 9, and congratulated Tester on his victory.[15]
The race was the closest Senate election of 2006 in terms of absolute vote difference[citation needed]; the closest race by percentage difference was the Virginia senate election[citation needed].
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References
- ↑ SurveyUSA News Poll #8541
- ↑ BillingsGazette.com :: Richards: Tester is best choice
- ↑ BillingsGazette.com :: Burns' fundraising nears $5 million; Morrison's hits $1 million
- ↑ Politics Home Page : Roll Call
- ↑ helenair.com
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 http://sos.mt.gov/Elections/archives/2000s/2006/elections/primary/2006_State_Primary.pdf
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election
- ↑ Conrad Burns Issues Apology for Altercation with Firefighters | Missoula | New West Network
- ↑ helenair.com
- ↑ 2006 Election Statistics
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 13-16-211. Recounts allowed if bond posted to cover all costs
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
External links
- Jon Tester's official campaign site
- Conrad Burns' official campaign site
- "Montana Senator in Fight of Political Life," Associated Press, October 15, 2006
- Robert 'Bob' Candee's official campaign site
- Stan Jones' official campaign site
- Bob Keenan's official campaign site
- John Morrison's official campaign site
- Paul Richards' official campaign site
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee page on this election
| Preceded by | Montana U.S. Senate elections 2006 |
Succeeded by 2008 |
