United States Senate election in Utah, 2016

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United States Senate election in Utah, 2016
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
  Mike Lee official portrait 112th Congress.jpg
Nominee Mike Lee TBD
Party Republican Democratic
300px
Incumbent U.S. senator

Mike Lee
Republican


Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2016 United States Senate election in Utah will take place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The primaries will take place on June 28.

Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee is running for re-election to a second term in office.[1]

Republican primary

Lee, a Tea Party Republican, may face a primary challenge from a member of the more establishment wing of the Party following his role in the unpopular 2013 federal government shutdown, which caused his approval ratings to drop precipitously.[2][3][3][4][5] However, since that time, his approval ratings have risen significantly.[6]

Changes to Utah's primary system could adversely affect Lee's chances at renomination.[7] Presently, Utah political parties hold conventions, where delegates attend and vote for candidates. Only if a candidate fails to gain at least 60% of the vote do the top two finishers proceed to a statewide primary election.[7] In 2010, incumbent Senator Bob Bennett finished third at the convention behind Lee and businessman Tim Bridgewater and was eliminated, with Lee defeating Bridgewater in the subsequent primary election. Lee's approval rating is much higher among the smaller group of more conservative convention delegates and a recent change in the law, backed by the group Count My Vote, allows candidates to bypass the convention by collecting signatures to advance to the primary.[7] Thus, a less conservative challenger could challenge Lee in the primary, appealing to more moderate Republican and unaffiliated voters, who could participate in the primary.[7] The constitutionality of the changes have been challenged in court by the Utah Republican Party.[7]

One possible challenger to Lee is former Governor of Utah and former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt, one of the founders of Count My Vote,[8] though he has denied interest in running.[7][9] Businessman and philanthropist Jon Huntsman, Sr., who has called Lee "an extremist" and "an embarrassment to the state of Utah" because of his "extremely radical" positions, may help bankroll an establishment, business-minded challenger, such as Zions Bank President A. Scott Anderson, Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce President Lane Beattie, University of Utah political scientist Kirk Jowers, Mitt Romney's son Josh Romney or former State Party Chairman Thomas Wright.[5] An effort to draft Huntsman, Sr.'s son, Jon Huntsman, Jr., the former Governor of Utah, former United States Ambassador to China under Barack Obama and a candidate for President in 2012,[10] was unsuccessful, with Huntsman ruling out a run against Lee.[11]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Democratic primary

Candidates

Jonathan Swinton was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy for U.S. Senate.[25] The other candidates filing for the nomination were Craig Oliver, Misty K. Snow, and Jade Tuan Quoc Vo.[26] Oliver withdrew before the state convention.[26] while Vo was eliminated in the first round of balloting.[27]

Swinton faced criticism at the state convention from delegates who said he was pro-life,[27] a criticism based primarily on Swinton's op-ed in the Salt Lake Tribune in which he describes himself as a "conservative Democrat" and "pro-life" while also calling for "a full investigation of Planned Parenthood."[28] Swinton tried unsuccessfully to avoid discussing his views on abortion at the state convention.[27]

After two rounds of balloting, neither Snow nor Swinton received the 60% of the vote they needed to secure the Democratic nomination.[27] As a result, the two will face off in a June 28 primary.[29]

Declared

  • Misty K. Snow, cashier[26]
  • Jonathan Swinton, marriage and family therapist[30]

Eliminated at Convention

  • Jade Tuan Quoc Vo[27]

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

A Dan Jones & Associates poll for UtahPolicy.com showed Snow leading with Democratic voters 33% to Swinton's 20%, as well as with independent voters, 23% to Swinton's 10%. The majority of the voters that were surveyed were undecided. The survey was administered from May 2–10, 2016 to 588 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.04%.[35]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[36] Safe R March 25, 2016
Daily Kos[37] Safe R April 4, 2016
Roll Call[38] Safe R April 4, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] Safe R March 21, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Mike
Lee (R)		 Jonathan
Swinton (D)		 Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Assoc. September 8–17, 2015 604 ± 4.0% 55% 25% 4% 17%

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  24. ↑ http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865652122/Former-GOP-presidential-candidate-Carly-Fiorina-endorses-Sen-Mike-Lee.html?pg=all
  25. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 26.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  29. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  31. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  37. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  38. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  39. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.

External links

Official campaign websites
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