United States Senate special election in West Virginia, 2010

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United States Senate special election in West Virginia, 2010
← 2006 November 2, 2010 (2010-11-02) 2012 →
  Joe Manchin official portrait 112th Congress.jpg
Nominee Joe Manchin John Raese
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 283,358 230,013
Percentage 53.5% 43.4%
WVS12.png
County Results
U.S. senator before election

Carte Goodwin
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Joe Manchin
Democratic
Elections in West Virginia
Seal of West Virginia.svg
This box:

The 2010 United States Senate special election in West Virginia was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Robert C. Byrd died in office on June 28, 2010. Democrat Governor Joe Manchin appointed Carte Goodwin to temporarily fill the vacancy. Goodwin pledged to not run for election to the seat in exchange for the appointment. Governor Joe Manchin won the open seat and served out the remainder of Byrd's elected term, which ended on January 3, 2013.[1]

Background

Byrd's career

Byrd had held his seat in the U.S. Senate since 1959, after having served in the House of Representatives since 1953, making him the longest-serving person in Congress. Byrd led his party in the Senate from 1977 to 1989, as Majority Leader or Minority Leader. Afterwards, as the most senior Democrat in the Senate, he served as President pro tempore of the Senate whenever his party was in the majority, including at the time of his death. The Democrats held a 59-41 seat majority in the Senate at the time of Byrd's death.

State politics

West Virginia had not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1956,[2] but has voted Republican in presidential elections since 2000. Seventy-seven percent of voters in the state approve of Democratic governor Joe Manchin, but only 35% approve of Democratic President Barack Obama.[3]

Additionally, the Mountain (Green), Libertarian, and Constitution Parties have been slowly growing forces in the state, hoping to capitalize on discontent from both political parties. All three minor parties fielded ballot-qualified candidates in the 2014 U.S. Senate election to fill the open seat of retiring longtime Senator Jay Rockefeller.[4]

Interim appointment

State law allowed Governor Joe Manchin to make a temporary appointment to the vacant seat. Manchin named a former aide, 36-year-old Carte Goodwin, an attorney and fellow Democrat. Goodwin was sworn in on July 20, 2010, and chose not to run in the special election.[5] Hours later, Manchin announced his intention to seek Byrd's seat.[6]

Timing of the election

Gov. Manchin urged the West Virginia Legislature to pass legislation scheduling the special election for 2010.[7] Without a revision, West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant believed that state law would not allow an election to be held until 2012.[8] On July 19, legislators hammered out a compromise bill setting an Aug. 28 special primary and Nov. 2 special election to elect a senator for the roughly two years and five months remaining in Byrd's term. The bill only changes election law for 2010 and will not apply to other future elections. It also allows a West Virginian who is on the November general election ballot for some other office to also run in the special election.[9]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

Despite Manchin's very high popularity in the state, he received two politically experienced challengers. Hechler is a former Secretary of State and U.S. Representative, who at the age of 95 campaigned across the state on an anti-mountaintop removal platform.[13]

Results

Democratic Primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Manchin 67,498 72.9
Democratic Ken Hechler 16,039 17.3
Democratic Sheirl Fletcher 9,035 9.8
Total votes 92,572 100

Republican primary

Candidates

Campaign

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. During the Republican primary campaign, only Raese and Warner released television advertisements.[25]

Results

Republican Primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Raese 38,152 71.4
Republican Mac Warner 7,892 14.8
Republican Scott H. Williams 1,530 2.9
Republican Kenneth Culp 1,364 2.6
Republican Harry C. Bruner Jr. 1,283 2.4
Republican Thomas Ressler 1,184 2.2
Republican Lynette Kennedy McQuain 907 1.7
Republican Frank Kubic 462 0.9
Republican Daniel Scott Rebich 450 0.8
Republican Albert Howard 176 0.3
Total votes 53,400 100

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Manchin's campaign ads emphasized his support from labor unions and Cecil Roberts (President of United Mine Workers of America), while criticizing Raese for "putting profits before people,",[28] supporting the elimination of the minimum wage, and supporting the FairTax.[29] Manchin has been endorsed by both the AFL-CIO and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.[30] Raese has been endorsed from numerous pro-life PACs[31] and Freedom Works.[32] Raese has criticized Manchin for supporting House Bill 103, which is similar to Cap and trade.[33]

Debates

The first and only debate was held October 18. It featured all four Senate candidates.[34] Raese wanted at least three debates.[35]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Toss up[36] October 31, 2010
The Rothenberg Political Report Toss up/tilt D[37] October 28, 2010
Rasmussen Reports Toss up[38] October 30, 2010
RealClearPolitics Toss up[39] October 31, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Leans D[40] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics Toss up[41] October 31, 2010

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Joe Manchin (D) John Raese (R) Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 31, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 50% 46% 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling (report) October 30–31, 2010 1,676 ± 2.4% 51% 46% — 3%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 26, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 49% 46% 2% 4%
Public Policy Polling (report) October 23–24, 2010 1,246 ± 2.8% 50% 44% — 6%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) October 23, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 46% 48% 3% 3%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 19, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 43% 50% 2% 5%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) October 16, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 45% 48% 2% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 12, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 46% 49% 2% 3%
Marshall University Poll conducted by Orion Strategies (report) October 11–12, 2010 450 ± 4.6% 48% 38% — 12%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research (report) October 8–12, 2010 1,507 ± 2.5% 44% 44% 4% —
Public Policy Polling (report) October 9–10, 2010 1,247 ± 2.8% 48% 45% — 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 6, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 44% 50% 2% 5%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) October 2, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 43% 48% 3% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 27, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 46% 48% 2% 4%
Public Policy Polling (report) September 19, 2010 1,397 ± 2.6% 43% 46% — 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 19, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 50% 43% 1% 5%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 8, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 50% 45% 2% 3%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 29, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 48% 42% 4% 7%
MindField Poll (report) August 6, 2010 413 ± 6.0% 54% 32% — 14%
Rasmussen Reports (report) July 22, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 51% 35% 5% 9%

Fundraising

Candidate (Party) Receipts Disbursements Cash On Hand Debt
John Raese (R) $3,071,909 $2,728,034 $343,876 $3,273,959
Joe Manchin (D) $3,351,829 $2,746,439 $605,390 $3,568
Source: Federal Election Commission[42]

Results

United States Senate special election in West Virginia, 2010 results[43]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Manchin 283,358 53.47% -10.96%
Republican John Raese 230,013 43.40% +9.69%
Mountain Jesse Johnson 10,152 1.92% +0.06%
Constitution Jeff Becker 6,425 1.21% N/A
Majority 53,345 10.07%
Total votes 529,948 100
Democratic hold Swing

References

  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ See List of United States Senators from West Virginia
  3. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  33. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  34. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  35. ↑ http://www.dailymail.com/election10/201009161291
  36. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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External links

Official candidate sites
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