United States presidential election, 2020
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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win |
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350px The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 census
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The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.
No incumbent or former President is seeking office in 2016, meaning that whoever is elected in 2016 will most likely be eligible to seek re-election.
Contents
Background
Procedure
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Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1][2]
Possible impact of NPVIC in 2020
Organizers predict the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) will be in effect by the 2020 United States presidential election. If this occurs, it may significantly alter the electoral dynamics of the contest.[3] The contract is an agreement among several states and the District of Columbia to assign their presidential electors to the winner of the national popular vote under certain conditions. The NPVIC is intended to address perceived shortcomings in the current Electoral College system.[4]
Demographic trends
The 2020 U.S. presidential election will mark the first time all members of the millennial generation will be eligible to vote.[5] The age group of what will then be persons in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket will represent 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020.[6] It has also been estimated that 15 percent of eligible voters in the 2020 U.S. presidential election will be Hispanic.[6]
Simultaneous elections
The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state governor and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[7] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[8]
Democratic Party
Potential candidates
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey since 2013; mayor of Newark, 2006-2013[9]
- Joaquin Castro, U.S. Representative from Texas since 2013[10]
- Julian Castro, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development since 2014; mayor of San Antonio, Texas 2009-2014[11]
- Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State 2009-2013; U.S. Senator from New York 2001-2009; First Lady 1993-2001; candidate for President in 2008 and 2016[12][13]
- Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York since 2010; Secretary of Housing and Urban Development 1997-2001; Attorney General of New York 2007-2010[14]
- Wendy Davis, Texas State Senator 2009-2015; Democratic nominee for Governor in 2014 [11]
- Bill de Blasio, Mayor of New York City since 2013[15]
- Tammy Duckworth, U.S. Representative from Illinois since 2013; Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016[11]
- Keith Ellison, U.S. Representative from Minnesota since 2007[16]
- Rahm Emanuel, Mayor of Chicago, Illinois since 2011; U.S. Representative 2003-2009; White House Chief of Staff 2009-2010[17]
- Anthony Foxx, Secretary of Transportation since 2013; Mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina 2009-2013[10]
- Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. Representative from Hawaii since 2013[18]
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator from New York since 2009; U.S. Representative 2007-2009[11]
- Kamala Harris, California Attorney General since 2011; candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[10]
- Martin Heinrich, U.S. Senator from New Mexico since 2013; U.S. Representative 2009-2013[10]
- John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado since 2011; Mayor of Denver 2003-2011[19]
- Tim Kaine, U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2013; Governor 2006-2010[11]
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2007[10]
- Claire McCaskill, U.S. Senator from Missouri since 2007[20]
- Chris Murphy, U.S. Senator from Connecticut since 2013; U.S. Representative 2007-2013[18]
- Gavin Newsom, Lieutenant Governor of California since 2011; Mayor of San Francisco 2004-2011[18]
- Martin O'Malley, Governor of Maryland 2007-2015; Mayor of Baltimore 1999-2007; candidate for President in 2016[21]
- Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts 2007-2015[22]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont since 2007; U.S. Representative 1991-2007; mayor of Burlington 1981-1989; candidate for President in 2016[23]
- Howard Schultz, businessman from Washington[10]
- Chuck Schumer, U.S. Senator from New York since 1999; U.S. Representative 1981-1999[24]
- Tom Steyer, hedge fund manager from California[10]
- Mark Warner, U.S. Senator from Virginia since 2009; Governor of Virginia 2002-2006[10]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts since 2013[23]
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Potential convention sites
Republican Party
Potential candidates
- Greg Abbott, Governor of Texas since 2015[28]
- Justin Amash, U.S. Representative from Michigan since 2011[29][30]
- Kelly Ayotte, U.S. Senator from New Hampshire since 2011[11]
- Charlie Baker, Governor of Massachusetts since 2015[31]
- Scott Brown, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts 2010-2013 (now living in New Hamsphire)[11]
- Sam Brownback, Governor of Kansas since 2011; U.S. Senator 1996-2011; U.S. Representative 1995-1996[19]
- George P. Bush, Commissioner of the Texas General Land Office since 2015[11]
- Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey since 2010; candidate for President in 2016 [32][33]
- Bob Corker, U.S. Senator from Tennessee since 2007; Mayor of Chattanooga 2001-2005[34]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas since 2015; U.S. Representative 2013-2015[35]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; candidate for President in 2016 [36]
- Mark Cuban, Owner of the Texas-based NBA team the Dallas Mavericks [37]
- Bob Ehrlich, Governor of Maryland 2003-2007; U.S. Representative 1995-2003[20]
- Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa since 2015[38]
- Mary Fallin, Governor of Oklahoma since 2011; U.S. Representative 2007-2011[19]
- Cory Gardner, U.S. Senator from Colorado since 2015; U.S. Representative 2011-2015[39]
- Nikki Haley, Governor of South Carolina since 2011[40]
- John Huntsman, Jr., Governor of Utah 2005-2009; Ambassador to China 2009-2011; Ambassador to Singapore 1992-1993[20]
- Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana 2008-2016; U.S. Representative 2005-2008; candidate for President in 2016[41]
- John Kasich, Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative 1983-2001; candidate for President in 2016 [42]
- Susana Martinez, Governor of New Mexico since 2011[43]
- Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. Representative from Washington since 2005[11]
- Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska 2006-2009[43]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011; candidate for President in 2016 [44]
- Mike Pence, Governor of Indiana since 2013; U.S. Representative 2003-2013[45][46][47]
- Rob Portman, U.S. Senator from Ohio since 2011; Director of the Office of Management and Budget 2006-2007; United States Trade Representative 2005-2006; U.S. Representative 1993-2005[20]
- Bruce Rauner, Governor of Illinois since 2015[48][49]
- Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. Secretary of State 2005-2009[50]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida since 2011; candidate for President in 2016[43]
- Paul Ryan, U.S. Representative since 1999; Speaker of the House since 2015[51][52]
- Ben Sasse, U.S. Senator from Nebraska since 2015[39]
- Jeff Sessions, U.S. Senator from Alabama since 1997[53]
- Rick Snyder, Governor of Michigan since 2011[54]
- Rick Scott, Governor of Florida since 2011[55]
- Donald Trump, businessman from New York; presumptive Republican nomineee for President in 2016[56]
- Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin since 2011; candidate for President in 2016 [57]
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Potential convention sites
Potential primary changes
Following a large amount of controversy in the 2016 Republican Primaries, many have called for a change in the way the Republican primaries are conducted. Some proposed changes include:
Third party, Independent, and unaffiliated candidates
Libertarian Party
Declared Candidates
- Adam Kokesh, talk show host from Arizona [61][62]
Independents/No Party Affiliation Specified
Declared Candidates
- Dan Rattiner, journalist from New York [63]
- Kanye West, rapper from California [64][65]
See also
References
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- ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article62936762.html
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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- ↑ http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433695/bill-de-blasios-presidential-future-be-warned
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- ↑ 18.0 18.1 18.2 http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/3/26/1506382/-Back-To-The-Future-Who-Are-Our-Future-Presidential-Nominees
- ↑ 19.0 19.1 19.2 http://hppr.org/post/which-high-plains-governors-are-running-president-2020#stream/0
- ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 http://www.business2community.com/government-politics/top-25-people-we-wish-were-running-for-u-s-president-01378469#dTJvyssY1z23qlS2.97
- ↑ https://www.michigandaily.com/section/viewpoints/op-ed-martin-o%E2%80%99malley-2020
- ↑ http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2015/09/23/deval-patrick-president-joe-biden/
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- ↑ http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/lawmaker-news/239777-schumers-ambition-will-be-tested-by-obama-and-iran
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- ↑ http://www.wbur.org/2016/01/23/commentary-charlie-bakers-quandary-can-he-stay-silent-on-the-gop-presidential-race
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- ↑ http://www.baylorschool.org/notes/news/item/index.aspx?LinkId=14611&Issue=9db0372b-e0a5-426a-9177-a3a1004f06a3
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- ↑ http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/05/2020-republican-presidential-race-already-going.html
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- ↑ http://hypeline.org/9-likely-presidential-candidates-2016/
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- ↑ 43.0 43.1 43.2 usconservatives.about.com/od/campaignselections/a/Eight-Possible-Conservative-Presidential-Candidates-For-2016.htm
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- ↑ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2012/08/30/condoleezza-rice-stamps-her-ticket-for-20162020/
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- ↑ http://lagniappemobile.com/no-jeff-sessions-shouldnt-run-president-2016/
- ↑ http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2015/05/08/gov-snyder-ring-bell-new-york-stock-exchange/26971143/
- ↑ http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/05/03/why-donald-trump-might---might-not---pick-floridas-rick-scott-ticket/83881974/
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- ↑ 60.0 60.1 http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/05/25/us/politics/republican-primary-schedule.html
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