United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2004

Main article: United States presidential election, 2004

United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2004

November 2, 2004

Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 6 0 Popular vote 572,898 469,953 Percentage 54.3% 44.6%

400px County Results   Kerry—60-70%   Kerry—50-60%   Bush—<50%   Bush—50-60%   Bush—60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 6 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Arkansas was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 9.8% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 11 out of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. Although there wasn't a lot of advertising and campaigning, polling did show a tight race as Bush, who won in 2000 with just over 50%. However, on election day Bush performed better than what polls showed.

Primaries

• Arkansas Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

1. D.C. Political Report: Leans Republican
2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
6. New York Times: Leans Bush
7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
8. Research 2000: Leans Bush
9. Washington Post: Bush
10. Washington Times: Leans Bush
11. Zogby International: Tied
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2004: Arkansas

Pre-election polling showed Bush leading throughout most of the general election. Bush frequently reached the 50% threshold, while Kerry never reached 47% in any poll taken prior to the election. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading at 51% to Kerry at 45%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,387,692. Kerry raised $466,194.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.

Analysis

The only areas that went for Democratic opponent John Kerry were the Mississippi Valley and the state capital, Little Rock. Bush performed better in Arkansas than last election against Al Gore, the VP of Bill Clinton, who was the home son of Arkansas.

Although Arkansas is the home of former Democratic Governor and President Bill Clinton, who won his state's electoral vote in both 1992 and 1996, Democratic nominees Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were both unsuccessful in carrying Arkansas, which went to Republican nominee George W. Bush in both elections.

Results

United States presidential election in Arkansas, 2004
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	Dick Cheney	572,898	54.3%	6
	Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	469,953	44.6%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	6,171	0.6%	0
	Independent	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	2,345	0.2%	0
	Independent	Michael Peroutka	Chuck Baldwin	2,083	0.2%	0
	Independent	David Cobb	Patricia LaMarche	1,488	0.1%	0
Totals				1,054,945	100.00%	6
Voter turnout (Voter age)						50%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Kerry%	Kerry#	Bush%	Bush#	Others%	Others#
Arkansas	44.8%	3,110	54.5%	3,789	0.7%	47
Ashley	45.6%	3,881	53.7%	4,567	0.8%	64
Baxter	38.5%	7,129	60.1%	11,128	1.5%	273
Benton	30.5%	20,756	68.4%	46,571	1.2%	794
Boone	31.4%	4,640	66.3%	9,793	2.3%	344
Bradley	51.9%	2,206	47.3%	2,011	0.8%	32
Calhoun	40.8%	939	58.3%	1,340	0.9%	20
Carroll	39.7%	4,161	59.0%	6,184	1.3%	136
Chicot	62.9%	2,993	36.3%	1,725	0.8%	39
Clark	54.2%	4,990	45.0%	4,144	0.8%	77
Clay	53.5%	3,264	45.3%	2,759	1.2%	73
Cleburne	38.4%	4,517	60.4%	7,107	1.2%	137
Cleveland	41.5%	1,450	57.5%	2,009	1.1%	37
Columbia	41.5%	4,108	57.8%	5,729	0.7%	72
Conway	49.3%	3,982	49.6%	4,009	1.2%	93
Craighead	45.9%	13,665	53.1%	15,818	1.1%	318
Crawford	33.2%	6,764	65.6%	13,391	1.2%	246
Crittenden	54.1%	8,277	45.3%	6,930	0.6%	93
Cross	44.3%	3,135	54.6%	3,864	1.1%	75
Dallas	49.3%	1,671	50.2%	1,700	0.5%	17
Desha	61.4%	2,851	37.2%	1,729	1.4%	67
Drew	47.2%	2,952	52.2%	3,262	0.6%	35
Faulkner	39.6%	14,538	58.6%	21,514	1.7%	634
Franklin	41.3%	3,008	57.4%	4,181	1.4%	100
Fulton	47.8%	2,370	50.9%	2,522	1.3%	63
Garland	44.9%	18,040	54.1%	21,734	0.9%	380
Grant	37.3%	2,524	62.1%	4,205	0.6%	41
Greene	47.0%	6,564	51.9%	7,237	1.1%	154
Hempstead	51.2%	3,817	48.0%	3,580	0.7%	55
Hot Spring	48.9%	5,901	49.4%	5,960	1.7%	204
Howard	43.8%	2,166	55.4%	2,736	0.8%	41
Independence	41.8%	5,443	57.1%	7,430	1.1%	138
Izard	47.1%	2,586	51.6%	2,833	1.3%	74
Jackson	56.5%	3,515	42.2%	2,624	1.3%	80
Jefferson	64.5%	19,675	33.5%	10,218	2.0%	600
Johnson	45.0%	3,622	53.6%	4,311	1.4%	111
Lafayette	49.1%	1,567	50.3%	1,604	0.6%	20
Lawrence	53.6%	3,544	44.6%	2,951	1.8%	120
Lee	62.5%	2,548	36.6%	1,492	1.0%	40
Lincoln	52.3%	2,149	46.8%	1,921	0.9%	39
Little River	50.6%	2,677	48.6%	2,575	0.8%	42
Logan	39.3%	3,361	59.4%	5,076	1.3%	114
Lonoke	33.8%	7,454	65.4%	14,398	0.8%	178
Madison	37.9%	2,421	60.7%	3,873	1.4%	90
Marion	37.9%	2,602	60.1%	4,127	2.0%	138
Miller	41.8%	6,139	57.6%	8,448	0.6%	91
Mississippi	53.6%	7,593	43.2%	6,121	3.1%	439
Monroe	55.9%	2,049	43.3%	1,586	0.9%	32
Montgomery	38.5%	1,524	59.8%	2,367	1.7%	67
Nevada	48.7%	1,694	50.4%	1,752	0.9%	31
Newton	34.4%	1,506	63.5%	2,779	2.1%	93
Ouachita	48.7%	5,188	50.2%	5,345	1.1%	117
Perry	43.4%	1,921	55.0%	2,435	1.7%	75
Phillips	63.6%	5,642	35.6%	3,161	0.7%	65
Pike	38.9%	1,310	59.8%	2,013	1.3%	44
Poinsett	52.7%	4,069	46.0%	3,555	1.3%	99
Polk	31.7%	2,473	66.6%	5,192	1.7%	134
Pope	34.0%	7,100	65.1%	13,614	0.9%	188
Prairie	43.1%	1,562	56.0%	2,030	0.9%	32
Pulaski	55.0%	84,532	44.2%	67,903	0.8%	1,185
Randolph	51.2%	3,412	47.4%	3,158	1.5%	97
St. Francis	59.3%	5,684	39.8%	3,815	0.9%	89
Saline	35.9%	14,153	63.1%	24,864	0.9%	359
Scott	36.5%	1,473	62.3%	2,514	1.3%	51
Searcy	34.3%	1,370	64.3%	2,565	1.4%	57
Sebastian	37.3%	16,479	61.8%	27,303	1.0%	429
Sevier	44.2%	2,035	54.7%	2,516	1.1%	50
Sharp	43.7%	3,265	54.8%	4,097	1.4%	108
Stone	40.6%	2,255	57.5%	3,188	1.9%	106
Union	39.7%	7,071	58.9%	10,502	1.5%	259
Van Buren	44.9%	3,310	54.1%	3,988	1.0%	76
Washington	43.1%	27,597	55.7%	35,726	1.2%	780
White	34.5%	9,129	64.3%	17,001	1.1%	295
Woodruff	65.2%	1,972	33.7%	1,021	1.1%	33
Yell	43.7%	2,913	55.2%	3,678	1.0%	68

By congressional district

Bush won all 4 congressional districts.

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	52%	47%	Marion Berry
2nd	51%	48%	Vic Snyder
3rd	62%	36%	John Boozman
4th	51%	48%	Mike Ross

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2004

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Arkansas. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney:

1. Bobbi Dodge
2. Gay White
3. Ida Fineburg
4. John Felts
5. Jim Davis
6. Martha McCaskill