United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2004

Main article: United States presidential election, 2004

United States presidential election in New Mexico, 2004

November 2, 2004

Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 5 0 Popular vote 376,930 370,942 Percentage 49.84% 49.05%

County Results   Kerry—70-80%   Kerry—60-70%   Kerry—50-60%   Bush—50-60%   Bush—60-70%   Bush—70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

New Mexico was won by incumbent Republican President George W. Bush by a 0.79% margin of victory. Bush took 49.84% of the vote, narrowly defeating Democratic Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, who took 49.05%. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a swing state. The Land of Enchantment is a very diverse state, with 42% of the state Hispanic and another 42% of the electorate non-Hispanic white. Exit polling showed that incumbent George W. Bush performed better among Hispanic Americans in 2004 than in 2000. This may be one of the reasons why Bush won and swung the state from 2000, when Al Gore had narrowly won the state. New Mexico was one of the only three states which swung between 2000 and 2004 (Iowa also flipped from Gore to Bush, while New Hampshire flipped from Bush to Kerry), although Bush only won with a margin of less than 1% of the vote.

This was the last election during which New Mexico was seriously contested as a swing state. The Republican Party's collapsing support among Hispanics led to the state's being classified as a blue state, as it voted Democratic by double-digit margins in 2008 and 2012.

Caucuses

• New Mexico Democratic caucuses, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democratic
2. Associated Press: Toss Up
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Toss Up
5. Newsweek: Toss Up
6. New York Times: Toss Up
7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Battleground
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Polls showed Kerry in the lead for most of the general election. However, Bush caught up in the last month. The last 3 polling average showed Bush leading with 48% to 46%, which meant that the undecided voters would decide the election.

Fundraising

Bush raised $869,407. Kerry raised $1,289,134.

Advertising and visits

Because of the closeness of the prior election, New Mexico was largely considered as a swing state. Over the general election, Bush visited the state 5 times and Kerry visited 8 times. Nearly $2 million were spent by both campaigns combined in television advertisements each week.

Analysis

Although Bill Richardson, the Democratic governor, is very popular, the state, who voted for Al Gore by 300 votes in 2000, chose George W. Bush in 2004, by 6,000 votes. The only county Bush won in 2004 that he didn't win in 2000 was Colfax County. Half of the population in this state is hispanic, thus Bush was able to appeal to over 40% of the hispanic vote because of his liberal position on illegal immigration.

Results

United States presidential election in NM, 2004
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	Richard Cheney	376,930	49.84%	5
	Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	370,942	49.05%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Peter Camejo	4,053	0.54%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	2,382	0.31%	0
	Green	David Cobb	Pat LaMarche	1,226	0.16%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	Chuck Baldwin	771	0.10%	0
Totals				756,304	100%	5
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered)						55%/68%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Kerry%	Kerry#	Bush%	Bush#	Others%	Others#
Lea	20.1%	3,646	79.4%	14,430	0.6%	105
Union	21.9%	411	77.3%	1,454	0.9%	16
Curry	24.8%	3,541	74.5%	10,649	0.7%	96
Catron	27.6%	551	71.6%	1,427	0.8%	15
De Baca	28.3%	281	71.1%	706	0.6%	6
Roosevelt	29.1%	2,082	69.9%	4,997	0.9%	65
Chaves	31.0%	6,726	68.1%	14,773	0.9%	206
Otero	31.0%	6,433	67.7%	14,066	1.3%	265
Lincoln	31.3%	2,822	67.3%	6,070	1.4%	122
San Juan	33.0%	14,843	65.6%	29,525	1.4%	638
Eddy	33.9%	6,880	65.5%	13,268	0.6%	122
Quay	34.5%	1,422	64.6%	2,661	0.8%	34
Torrance	36.7%	2,386	61.9%	4,026	1.5%	95
Sierra	37.3%	1,926	61.3%	3,162	1.3%	69
Harding	40.2%	259	59.0%	380	0.8%	5
Valencia	43.3%	11,270	55.6%	14,474	1.0%	268
Hidalgo	43.8%	861	55.0%	1,081	1.1%	22
Luna	44.0%	3,340	54.8%	4,164	1.2%	89
Los Alamos	46.5%	5,206	51.9%	5,810	1.6%	181
Colfax	47.3%	2,824	51.6%	3,082	1.0%	62
Sandoval	48.1%	21,421	50.8%	22,628	1.1%	492
Doña Ana	51.3%	31,762	47.7%	29,548	1.0%	650
Bernalillo	51.5%	132,252	47.3%	121,454	1.2%	3,105
Socorro	51.3%	4,025	47.1%	3,696	1.7%	130
Cibola	52.3%	3,913	46.4%	3,477	1.3%	97
Grant	53.0%	7,095	45.8%	6,135	1.2%	162
Guadalupe	59.1%	1,340	40.3%	914	0.6%	13
McKinley	63.3%	13,051	35.6%	7,351	1.1%	221
Rio Arriba	65.0%	9,753	34.3%	5,149	0.6%	97
Mora	66.4%	1,876	32.8%	928	0.8%	22
Santa Fe	71.1%	47,074	27.9%	18,466	1.0%	660
San Miguel	71.7%	8,683	27.3%	3,313	1.0%	120
Taos	74.1%	10,987	24.7%	3,666	1.2%	182

By congressional district

Kerry won 2 of 3 congressional districts.

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	48%	51%	Heather Wilson
2nd	58%	41%	Steve Pearce
3rd	45%	54%	Tom Udall

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2004

NM voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa has 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney.

1. Rod Adair
2. Ruth Kelly
3. Rick Lopez
4. Lou Melvin
5. Rodney Montoya

References

• 2004 Presidential Election Results: Spreadsheets and Charts
• [1]