User:Rectified/Objections to global warming and climate change

Objections to global warming and climate change

This page is about the objections raised to the theory about possible warming of the Earth's climate system due to human activities. "Climate change" can also refer to global warming, or to other climate trends at any point in Earth's history. For other uses see Global warming (disambiguation)

Example of a climate model output, a computer-generated global mean surface temperature change from 1880 to 2015, relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The black line is the annual mean and the red line is the 5-year running mean. Because of the way the input data is manipulated and how the program is written, there are many other versions of this, showing different trends both increasing and decreasing. Source: NASA GISS.

Example world map showing calculated surface temperature trends (°C per decade) between 1950 and 2014, generated from a climate model using reduced satellite data. Source: NASA GISS.

Fossil fuel related carbon dioxide emissions over the 20th century. This topic is generally not disputed in the main. Image source: EPA.

The Greening of the Earth from 1982-2011. The numbers below the color bar are the percentage changes in total biomass, per unit area of land, between 1982 and 2011. This global phenomenon is thought to be due to the increased atmospheric CO₂. Constructed from satellite data.

Global warming is a term for the theory of a century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system, and its related effects, due to artificially added carbon dioxide (CO₂) released into the Earth's atmosphere. Other terms for Global Warming are Manmade Global Warming, Anthropogenic Global Warming, and Climate Change. The promotion of this theory, along with many of its dependent theories and practices, has resulted in a substantial and diverse body of objection and opposition.

In this theory, the Sun heats the surface of the Earth, which then gives off (re-radiates) infrared power. The CO₂ in the atmosphere then absorbs some of the re-radiated infrared power, causing it to be warmer than it would have been if the CO₂ were not present. The theory itself is challenged on theoretical grounds by many different people.

The impact of the excess CO₂ is difficult to assess, so very complicated computer simulations, called climate models, are used to study this problem. Some of these climate models suggest that the global climate system is warming up, others do not. Opponents of this methodology claim that all of of them are speculative regarding future events and inaccurate on past events.

Scientific understanding of the global warming theory is still uncertain, due in part to the lack of reliable data. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that the surveyed scientists were more than 95% certain that global warming is mostly being caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and other human (anthropogenic) activities. These findings, along with the ancillary findings of ocean acidification, [[Climate refugee]s, extreme weather events, glacial retreat, icecap melting, and rising sea levels, are disputed by many scientists, some of whom have resigned in protest. There are numerous accusations of academic fraud in this field. At least one RICO lawsuit has been filed on these grounds.

Possible responses to global warming include restricting carbon dioxide emissions, and instituting a global "Cap and Trade" scheme. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which state that their ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change. The UNFCCC has proposed a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to assist in adaptation to global warming. The opponents of global warming point to these developments as evidence of the true motive of the global warming promoters.

Public reactions to the global warming campaign and general fears of the effects of global warming rise and fall. A 2015 Pew Research Center report shows a median of 54% of people around the world who consider it "a very serious problem". There are, however, significant regional differences. Notably, Americans and Chinese, whose economies are responsible for the greatest production of wealth and the largest CO₂ emissions, are among the least concerned.

General arguments against the global warming theory

• Urban heat islands skew the temperature data. There has been a loss of thousands of temperature stations around the world since the 1970's. Most of these lost weather stations were at high latitudes or high elevations. There are only 1500 monitoring stations left on Earth. Historical and current temperature data is so poor it has become useless.
• There is a great deal of evidence of data massaging, apparently to make the temperature record show a warming trend, see e.g. Steve Goddard's work and WUWT.
• The ice core data relies on an unproven idea about what the “yearly” bands actually represent. These may represent years, or possibly days, or even something else to do with other processes such as diffusion or reaction-diffusion. The ice caps may be much younger than the academic claims, perhaps as young as a few hundred or a few thousand years old, instead of millions of years old.
• Other historical temperature proxies like lake & ocean sediments show very different inferred temperature profiles.
• There cannot be a scientific consensus on global warming because there is no such thing as a scientific consensus. The notion is self-falsifying.
• CO₂ is usually lagging, not leading, global warming in the record.
• The polar bear population is increasing, not decreasing. It bottomed out in the 1950’s at about 5000 worldwide. An international hunting ban then went into effect. There are now somewhere between 25,000 and 50,000 polar bears. The dead polar bear shown in Al Gore’s movie, An Inconvenient Truth, died in an ordinary storm.
• The Arctic sea ice waxes and wanes. It is not very thick, so small changes in its total volume can appear as large changes in the total surface area. Satellite data only goes back to about the 1970’s.
• The Greenland icecap loss has been minuscule, if it is even measurable. The rates of ice melting quoted by global warming proponents would not be enough to melt the ice for hundreds or thousands of years, assuming the process continued.
• Different regions of the Earth’s surface rise and fall at various rates for various reasons, mostly unknown. These changes are measurable by satellite and have been recorded at least since the 1980’s, with increasing levels of accuracy going forward. There are some sinking islands in the South Pacific that give the illusion that the local sea level is rising.
• Of all the factors that affect the temperature on Earth, the Sun is by far the most important. The Sun is a variable star. Its intercepted-power output is precisely measured and found to change at all timescales.
• Based on cyclical models of past Ice Ages, Earth may be entering a new Ice Age in the near term. Predictions base on these models range from next year to a few thousand years from now. If AGW were true, it might prevent an Ice Age.
• Cosmic ray influx varies on all timescales. These particles arrive from unknown and unpredictable sources. In one theory, which has been tested in cloud chambers, this flux affects the formation of clouds by providing a nucleation mechanism to condense water vapor. cover and global albedo;
• Earth is getting greener as a result of carbon dioxide enrichment. This is a beneficial result.
• Computerized climate models have completely failed to predict.
• Michael Mann's famous climate model outputs a hockey stick chart from any random dataset, an example of confirmation bias.
• Radiative forcing (the key variable in climate models is ill-defined for greenhouse gases;
• CO₂ 15 mm IR saturation, absorbance, and optical depth may mean the entire greenhouse effect takes place near ground level. Adding more CO₂ would simply lower the altitude at which the greenhouse effect is said to operate.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions

Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse effect, Radiative forcing, Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere, and Earth's energy budget

See also: List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions and History of climate change science

Background of carbon emissions

The greenhouse effect is a theory in which the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in a planet's atmosphere warm its lower atmosphere and surface.

Annual world greenhouse gas emissions, in 2010, by sector.

Percentage share of global cumulative energy-related CO₂ emissions between 1751 and 2012 across different regions.

On Earth, naturally occurring amounts of possible greenhouse gases are calculated, depending on the assigned radiative forcing coefficient,

to have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F). Without the Earth's atmosphere, the Earth's average temperature would be well below the freezing temperature of water.

Radiative forcing is a key parameter in most climate model software. The objection is raised that it is impossible to calculate a reliable value for this parameter.

The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70% of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO₂), which causes 9–26%; methane (CH₄), which causes 4–9%; and ozone (O₃), which causes 3–7%. Clouds also affect the radiation balance through cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases.

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of certain gases in the atmosphere. In the greenhouse gas theory, this has led to increased radiative forcing from CO₂, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. According to work published in 2007, these possible concentrations of CO₂ and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750. These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, according to one interpretation ofice core data. Less direct geological evidence has been interpreted to mean that CO₂ values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.

Fossil fuel burning may have produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO₂ from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation. Estimates of global CO₂ emissions in 2011 from fossil fuel combustion, including cement production and gas flaring, was 34.8 billion tonnes (9.5 ± 0.5 PgC), an increase of 54% above emissions in 1990. Coal burning was responsible for 43% of the total emissions, oil 34%, gas 18%, cement 4.9% and gas flaring 0.7%

Atmospheric CO₂ The text in this [NASA image] says "For 650,000 years..." but the graph only goes back perhaps 425,000 years. The years before today are not aligned with the vertical chart lines, and so it is not quite clear how many years this represents.

Monthly global CO₂ concentrations exceeded 400 p.p.m. in March 2015.

On 12 November 2015, NASA scientists reported that human-made carbon dioxide continues to increase above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years: currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels is not absorbed right away by either vegetation or by the oceans and so remains in the atmosphere for ahwile.

Over the last three decades of the twentieth century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions. CO₂ emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. Emissions can be attributed to different regions. Attributions of emissions due to land-use change are subject to considerable uncertainty.

Emissions scenarios, including estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments. In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced. Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century. Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, some models suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ could range between 541 and 970 ppm. This is 90–250% above what the concentration in the year 1750 AD is though to have been.

The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with ozone depletion, i.e., the destruction of stratospheric ozone (e.g., the ozone layer) by chlorofluorocarbons. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.

Arguments against ill effects of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions

• Together with water (H₂O), carbon dioxide is an indispensable, food-like building material for plants.
• The biosphere has been greening and crop yield have been increasing because of the increased atmospheric CO₂. (This may help stave off anther extinction event during the next Ice Age.)
• This increased CO₂ uptake by plant life appears to be exerting a braking effect on the rate of climb of atmospheric CO₂.
• The greenhouse gas theory depends on an unproven model.
• Radiative forcing coefficients are unknown quantities that have to be guessed.

Observed and imputed temperature changes

Main article: Instrumental temperature record

NASA claims that 2015 was the Warmest Global Year on Record (since 1880) – Colors indicate imputed temperature anomalies (NASA/NOAA; 20 January 2016).

Earth has been in radiative imbalance since at least the 1970s, where less energy leaves the atmosphere than enters it. Most of this extra energy has been absorbed by the oceans. It is very likely that human activities substantially contributed to this increase in ocean heat content.

Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions from climate proxies, each smoothed on a decadal scale, with the instrumental temperature record overlaid in black.

NOAA graph of Global Annual Temperature Anomalies 1950–2012, showing the El Niño Southern Oscillation

The global average (land and ocean) surface temperature shows a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets. Earth's average surface temperature rose by 0.74±0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming almost doubled for the last half of that period (0.13±0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07±0.02 °C per decade).

The average temperature of the lower troposphere has increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.23 and 0.40 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Climate proxies show the temperature to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.

The warming that is evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of observations, as documented by many independent scientific groups. Examples include sea level rise, widespread melting of snow and land ice, increased heat content of the oceans, increased humidity, and the earlier timing of spring events, e.g., the flowering of plants. The probability that these changes could have occurred by chance is virtually zero.

Temperature trends

Temperature changes and trends vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures are said to have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade). Ocean temperatures would increase much more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation. Since the beginning of industrialisation the temperature difference between the hemispheres has increased due to melting of sea ice and snow in the North. Average arctic temperatures have been increasing at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world in the past 100 years; however arctic temperatures are also highly variable. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.

The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about would still occur.

Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long-term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in surface temperature from 2002 to 2009, which has been dubbed the global warming hiatus by the media and some scientists, is consistent with such an episode. 2015 updates to account for differing methods of measuring ocean surface temperature measurements show a positive trend over the recent decade.

Warmest and coldest years

15 of the top 16 warmest years "on record" are claimed to have occurred since 2000. While record-breaking years can attract considerable public interest, individual years are less significant than the overall trend. So some climatologists have criticized the attention that the popular press gives to "warmest year" statistics; for example, Gavin Schmidt stated "the long-term trends or the expected sequence of records are far more important than whether any single year is a record or not."

The BBC claimed that 2015 was not only the warmest year on record, it broke the record by the largest margin by which the record has been broken. Other scientists and media figures dispute these claims. 2015 was the 39th consecutive year with above-average temperatures. Ocean oscillations like El Niño Southern Oscillation (the ENSO) are thought to affect global average temperatures, for example, 1998 temperatures were significantly enhanced by strong El Niño conditions. 1998 remained the warmest year until 2005 and 2010 and the temperature of both of these latter years was enhanced by El Niño periods. The large margin by which 2015 is the warmest year is also attributed to another strong El Nino. However, 2014 was ENSO neutral. According to NOAA and NASA, 2015 had the warmest respective months on record for 10 out of the 12 months. The average temperature around the globe was 1.62˚F (0.90˚C) or 20% above the twentieth century average. In a first, December of 2015 was also the first month to ever reach a temperature 2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for the planet, also according to NASA and NOAA.

Arguments against temperature rise

• Evidence of data massaging.
• Lack of correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature rise.
• Difficulty of measuring tiny changes over short periods
• Heat island effect.
• East Anglia Climategate.

Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)

Main article: Attribution of recent climate change

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m²).

This graph, known as the Keeling Curve, documents the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from 1958–2015. Monthly CO₂ measurements display seasonal oscillations in an upward trend; each year's maximum occurs during the Northern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO₂.

The climate system can warm or cool in response to changes in external forcings. These are "external" to the climate system but not necessarily external to Earth. Examples of external forcings include changes in atmospheric composition (e.g., increased concentrations of greenhouse gases), solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.

Greenhouse gases

Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse effect, Radiative forcing, Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere, and Earth's energy budget

See also: List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions and History of climate change science

The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in a planet's atmosphere warm its lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824, discovered in 1860 by John Tyndall, was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896, and was developed in the 1930s through 1960s by Guy Stewart Callendar.

Annual world greenhouse gas emissions, in 2010, by sector.

Percentage share of global cumulative energy-related CO₂ emissions between 1751 and 2012 across different regions.

On Earth, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F). Without the Earth's atmosphere, the Earth's average temperature would be well below the freezing temperature of water. The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70% of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO₂), which causes 9–26%; methane (CH₄), which causes 4–9%; and ozone (O₃), which causes 3–7%. Clouds also affect the radiation balance through cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases.

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO₂, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. According to work published in 2007, the concentrations of CO₂ and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750. These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO₂ values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.

Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO₂ from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation. Estimates of global CO₂ emissions in 2011 from fossil fuel combustion, including cement production and gas flaring, was 34.8 billion tonnes (9.5 ± 0.5 PgC), an increase of 54% above emissions in 1990. Coal burning was responsible for 43% of the total emissions, oil 34%, gas 18%, cement 4.9% and gas flaring 0.7%

Atmospheric CO₂ concentration from 650,000 years ago to near present, using ice core proxy data and direct measurements.

In May 2013, it was reported that readings for CO₂ taken at the world's primary benchmark site in Mauna Loa surpassed 400 ppm. According to professor Brian Hoskins, this is likely the first time CO₂ levels have been this high for about 4.5 million years. Monthly global CO₂ concentrations exceeded 400 p.p.m. in March 2015, probably for the first time in several million years. On 12 November 2015, NASA scientists reported that human-made carbon dioxide continues to increase above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years: currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels is not absorbed by vegetation and the oceans and remains in the atmosphere.

Over the last three decades of the twentieth century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions. CO₂ emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. Emissions can be attributed to different regions. Attributions of emissions due to land-use change are subject to considerable uncertainty.

Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments. In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced. Fossil fuel reserves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century. Emission scenarios, combined with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ could range between 541 and 970 ppm. This is 90–250% above the concentration in the year 1750.

The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with ozone depletion, i.e., the destruction of stratospheric ozone (e.g., the ozone layer) by chlorofluorocarbons. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.

Objections to greenhouse gas theory

A greenhouse works by preventing convection, not by re-radiating infrared from the glass window panes. Carbon dioxide concentration appears to generally lag temperature changes in the fossil record.

Aerosols and soot

Ship tracks can be seen as lines in these clouds over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of the United States. Atmospheric particles from these and other sources could have a large effect on climate through the aerosol indirect effect.

Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, was observed from 1961 until at least 1990. Solid and liquid particles known as aerosols, produced by volcanoes and human-made pollutants, are thought to be the main cause of this dimming. They exert a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion – CO₂ and aerosols – have partially offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been due to the increase in non-CO₂ greenhouse gases such as methane. Radiative forcing due to aerosols is temporally limited due to the processes that remove aerosols from the atmosphere. Removal by clouds and precipitation gives tropospheric aerosols an atmospheric lifetime of only about a week, while stratospheric aerosols can remain for a few years. Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in aerosols will only delay climate changes due to carbon dioxide. Black carbon is second only to carbon dioxide for its contribution to global warming.

In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, aerosols have indirect effects on the Earth's radiation budget. Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, a phenomenon known as the Twomey effect. This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect. Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of aerosols represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.

Soot may either cool or warm Earth's climate system, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot directly absorbs solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds. When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface. The influences of atmospheric particles, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.

Changes in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and monthly sunspot numbers since the mid-1970s.

Contribution of natural factors and human activities to radiative forcing of climate change. Radiative forcing values are for the year 2005, relative to the pre-industrial era (1750). The contribution of solar irradiance to radiative forcing is 5% the value of the combined radiative forcing due to increases in the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

Solar activity

Main article: Solar activity and climate

Since 1978, solar irradiance has been measured by satellites. These measurements indicate that the Sun's radiative output has not increased since 1978, so the warming during the past 30 years cannot be attributed to an increase in solar energy reaching the Earth.

Climate models have been used to examine the role of the Sun in recent climate change. Models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when they only take into account variations in solar output and volcanic activity. Models are, however, able to simulate the observed 20th century changes in temperature when they include all of the most important external forcings, including human influences and natural forcings.

Another line of evidence against the Sun having caused recent climate change comes from looking at how temperatures at different levels in the Earth's atmosphere have changed. Models and observations show that greenhouse warming results in warming of the lower atmosphere (called the troposphere) but cooling of the upper atmosphere (called the stratosphere). Depletion of the ozone layer by chemical refrigerants has also resulted in a strong cooling effect in the stratosphere. If the Sun were responsible for observed warming, warming of both the troposphere and stratosphere would be expected.

Variations in Earth's orbit

Main article: Milankovitch cycles

The tilt of the Earth’s axis and the shape of its orbit around the Sun vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and are a natural source of climate change, by changing the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar insolation.

During the last few thousand years, this phenomenon contributed to a slow cooling trend at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during summer, a trend that was reversed by greenhouse-gas-induced warming during the 20th century.

Variations in orbital cycles may initiate a new glacial period in the future, though the timing of this depends on greenhouse gas concentrations as well as the orbital forcing. A new glacial period is not expected within the next 50,000 years if atmospheric CO₂ concentration remains above 300 ppm.

Climate models

Main article: Global climate model

Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development.

Projected change in annual mean surface air temperature from the late 20th century to the middle 21st century, based on a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B). This scenario assumes that no future policies are adopted to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Image credit: NOAA GFDL.

A climate model is a computer program, a numerical simulation of a mathematical representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect a climate system. Such models are based on scientific disciplines such as fluid dynamics and thermodynamics as well as physical processes such as radiative transfer. The models may be used to predict a range of variables such as local air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; ocean temperature, salt content, and circulation; ice cover on land and sea; the transfer of heat and moisture from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere; and chemical and biological processes, among others. This becomes very complicated.

Although researchers attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power, limitations in knowledge of the interaction within the climate system, sparcity of data, and limitation of the theory used. Results from models can also vary due to different greenhouse gas inputs and the model's climate sensitivity. For example, the uncertainty in IPCC's 2007 projections is caused by (1) the use of multiple models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations, (2) the use of differing estimates of humanity's future greenhouse gas emissions, (3) any additional emissions from climate feedbacks that were not included in the models IPCC used to prepare its report, i.e., greenhouse gas releases from permafrost.

The models do not assume the climate will warm due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Instead the models predict how greenhouse gases will interact with radiative transfer and other physical processes. Warming or cooling is intended to be a result (an output), not an assumption (built into the code), of the models.

Clouds and their effects are especially difficult to predict. Improving the model's representation of clouds is therefore an important topic in current research. Another prominent research topic is expanding and improving representations of the carbon cycle.

Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human causes.

The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates.

Climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate. Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted. Precipitation increased proportionally to atmospheric humidity, and hence significantly faster than global climate models predict. Since 1990, sea level has also risen considerably faster than models predicted it would.

Additional objections to climate models

• Inaccessible and non-reproducible black box computer programs
• biasing the model. Michael Mann's hockey stick output is a famous example.
• questionable physics of greenhouse effect
• failure to predict anything
• faulty input data

Observed and expected environmental effects

Main article: Effects of global warming

Projections of global mean sea level rise by Parris and others. Probabilities have not been assigned to these projections. Therefore, none of these projections should be interpreted as a "best estimate" of future sea level rise. Image credit: NOAA.

Anthropogenic forcing has likely contributed to some of the observed changes, including sea level rise, changes in climate extremes (such as the number of warm and cold days), declines in Arctic sea ice extent, glacier retreat, and greening of the Sahara.

During the 21st century, glaciers and snow cover are projected to continue their widespread retreat. Projections of declines in Arctic sea ice vary. Recent projections suggest that Arctic summers could be ice-free (defined as ice extent less than 1 million square km) as early as 2025-2030.

"Detection" is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change. Detection does not imply attribution of the detected change to a particular cause. "Attribution" of causes of climate change is the process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence. Detection and attribution may also be applied to observed changes in physical, ecological and social systems.

Extreme weather

Main articles: Extreme weather and Physical impacts of climate change § Extreme events

Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most warming at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.

Future changes in precipitation are expected to follow existing trends, with reduced precipitation over subtropical land areas, and increased precipitation at subpolar latitudes and some equatorial regions. Projections suggest a probable increase in the frequency and severity of some extreme weather events, such as heat waves.

A 2015 study published in Nature Climate Change, states: About 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence. For 2 °C of warming the fraction of precipitation extremes attributable to human influence rises to about 40%. Likewise, today about 75% of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming. It is the most rare and extreme events for which the largest fraction is anthropogenic, and that contribution increases nonlinearly with further warming.

Data analysis of extreme events from 1960 till 2010 suggests that droughts and heat waves appear simultaneously with increased frequency. Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased since 1980.

Objections to extreme weather events

Hurricanes have been decreasing in frequency and intensity. Daily hot extremes over land have always been attributable to warming.

Sea level rise

Map of the Earth with a six-meter sea level rise represented in red.

Main articles: Sea level rise and Retreat of glaciers since 1850

Sparse records indicate that some glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. Many others have not. In the 1950s measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

The claim is made that the global sea level has risen by an estimated average of 2.6 mm and 2.9 mm per year ± 0.4 mm since 1993, and the rise has accelerated during the past two decades. Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects for a high emissions scenario, that global mean sea level could rise by 52–98 cm. </ref> Other estimates suggest for the same period that global mean sea level could rise by 0.2 to 2.0 m (0.7–6.6 ft), relative to mean sea level in 1992.

Widespread coastal flooding would be expected if several degrees of warming is sustained for thousands of years, dominated by melting the Antarctica icecap. For example, sustained global warming of more than 2 °C (relative to pre-industrial levels) could lead to eventual sea level rise of around 1 to 4 m due to thermal expansion of sea water and the melting of glaciers and small ice caps. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet could contribute an additional 4 to 7.5 m over many thousands of years. It has been estimated that we are already committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 meters for each degree of temperature rise within the next 2,000 years.

Continued CO₂ emissions from fossil sources could cause additional tens of meters of sea level rise thousands of years in the future and eventually eliminate the entire Antarctic ice sheet, causing about 58 meters of sea level rise.

Objections to claimed sea level rise

• The projections depend on the global warming theory being true and on the climate models being accurate, which has not been shown.
• Sea level has changed by over one hundred meters in the past. The current projections are small by comparison.
• Any change to date is small enough to fall within instrument noise.
• Sea levels measured at coastal stations do not show a sensible rise.
• Islands subsiding led to false reports.
• Nobody cares what happens to the sea level hundreds and thousands of years from now.

Ecological systems

Main article: Climate change and ecosystems

In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming. Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs. It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO₂ levels, combined with higher global temperatures. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.

Increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations have led to an increase in ocean acidity. Dissolved CO₂ increases ocean acidity, which is measured by lower pH values. Between 1750 to 2000, surface-ocean pH has decreased by ≈0.1, from ≈8.2 to ≈8.1. Surface-ocean pH has probably not been below ≈8.1 during the past 2 million years. Projections suggest that surface-ocean pH could decrease by an additional 0.3–0.4 units by 2100. Future ocean acidification could threaten coral reefs, fisheries, protected species, and other natural resources of value to society.

Ocean deoxygenation is projected to increase hypoxia by 10%, and triple suboxic waters (oxygen concentrations 98% less than the mean surface concentrations), for each 1 °C of upper Ocean warming.

Objections to ocean acidification

The ocean is alkaline, not acidic.

Long-term effects

Main article: Long-term effects of global warming

On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of global warming will be determined primarily by anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. This is due to carbon dioxide's very long lifetime in the atmosphere.

Stabilizing the global average temperature would require large reductions in CO₂ emissions, as well as reductions in emissions of other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. Emissions of CO₂ would need to be reduced by more than 80% relative to their peak level. Even if this were achieved, global average temperatures would remain close to their highest level for many centuries.

Long-term effects also include a response from the Earth's crust, due to ice melting and deglaciation, in a process called post-glacial rebound, when land masses are no longer depressed by the weight of ice. This could lead to landslides and increased seismic and volcanic activities. Tsunamis could be generated by submarine landslides caused by warmer ocean water thawing ocean-floor permafrost or releasing gas hydrates. Some world regions, such as the French Alps, already show signs of an increase in landslide frequency.

Large-scale and abrupt impacts

Main article: Abrupt climate change

See also: Cold blob (North Atlantic)

Climate change could result in global, large-scale changes in natural and social systems. Examples include the possibility for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to slow- or shutdown, which in the instance of a shutdown would change weather in Europe and North America considerably, ocean acidification caused by increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, and the long-term melting of ice sheets, which contributes to sea level rise.

Some large-scale changes could occur abruptly, i.e., over a short time period, and might also be irreversible. Examples of abrupt climate change are the rapid release of methane and carbon dioxide from permafrost, which would lead to amplified global warming, or the shutdown of thermohaline circulation. Scientific understanding of abrupt climate change is generally poor. The probability of abrupt change for some climate related feedbacks may be low. Factors that may increase the probability of abrupt climate change include higher magnitudes of global warming, warming that occurs more rapidly, and warming that is sustained over longer time periods.

Possible responses to global warming

See also: Climate action

Mitigation

Main article: Climate change mitigation

The graph on the right shows three "pathways" to meet the UNFCCC's 2 °C target, labelled "global technology", "decentralised solutions", and "consumption change". Each pathway shows how various measures (e.g., improved energy efficiency, increased use of renewable energy) could contribute to emissions reductions. Image credit: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

Mitigation of climate change are actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs from the atmosphere. There is a large potential for future reductions in emissions by a combination of activities, including: energy conservation and increased energy efficiency; the use of low-carbon energy technologies, such as renewable energy, nuclear energy, and carbon capture and storage; and enhancing carbon sinks through, for example, reforestation and preventing deforestation. A 2015 report by Citibank concluded that transitioning to a low carbon economy would yield positive return on investments.

Near- and long-term trends in the global energy system are inconsistent with limiting global warming at below 1.5 or 2 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels. Pledges made as part of the Cancún agreements are broadly consistent with having a likely chance (66 to 100% probability) of limiting global warming (in the 21st century) at below 3 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.

In limiting warming at below 2 °C, more stringent emission reductions in the near-term would allow for less rapid reductions after 2030. Many integrated models are unable to meet the 2 °C target if pessimistic assumptions are made about the availability of mitigation technologies.

Adaptation

Main article: Adaptation to global warming

Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of climate change, or spontaneous, i.e., without government intervention. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis. The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.

A concept related to adaptation is adaptive capacity, which is the ability of a system (human, natural or managed) to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences. Unmitigated climate change (i.e., future climate change without efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions) would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt.

Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.

Climate engineering

Main article: Climate engineering

Climate engineering (sometimes called geoengineering or climate intervention) is the deliberate modification of the climate. It has been investigated as a possible response to global warming, e.g. by NASA and the Royal Society. Techniques under research fall generally into the categories solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal, although various other schemes have been suggested. A study from 2014 investigated the most common climate engineering methods and concluded they are either ineffective or have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change.

Discourse about global warming

Political discussion

Main article: Politics of global warming

Further information: 2011 United Nations Climate Change Conference, 2012 United Nations Climate Change Conference, 2013 United Nations Climate Change Conference, and 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference

Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention refers explicitly to "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations." To stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO
₂, emissions worldwide would need to be dramatically reduced from their present level.

Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent dangerous human interference of the climate system. As stated in the Convention, this requires that GHG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion. The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions have risen.

During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing 133 developing nations) pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions. This was justified on the basis that: the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.

This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention, which entered into legal effect in 2005. In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expired in 2012. United States President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy."

At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord. Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010) aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C. The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.

Scientific discussion

See also: Scientific opinion on climate change and Surveys of scientists' views on climate change

Nearly all scientists agree that humans are contributing to observed climate change. At least 9 surveys of scientists and meta studies of academic papers concerning global warming have been carried out since 2004. While up to 18% of scientists surveyed might disagree with the consensus view, when restricted to scientists publishing in the field of climate, 97 to 100% agreed with the consensus: most of the current warming is anthropogenic (caused by humans). National science academies have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions.

In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view.

Discussion by the public and in popular media

Main articles: Climate change denial, Global warming controversy, and Media coverage of climate change

Global warming was the cover story in this 2007 issue of Ms. magazine

The global warming controversy refers to a variety of disputes, substantially more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature, regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, and whether the increase is wholly or partially an artifact of poor measurements. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, and what the consequences of global warming will be.

From 1990–1997 in the United States, conservative think tanks mobilized to challenge the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They challenged the scientific evidence, argued that global warming will have benefits, and asserted that proposed solutions would do more harm than good. Some people dispute aspects of climate change science. Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and some companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls. Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years, or even called for policies to reduce global warming. Global oil companies have begun to acknowledge climate change exists and is caused by human activities and the burning of fossil fuels.

Surveys of public opinion

Main article: Public opinion on climate change

The world public, or at least people in economically advanced regions, became broadly aware of the global warming problem in the late 1980s. Polling groups began to track opinions on the subject, at first mainly in the United States. The longest consistent polling, by Gallup in the US, found relatively small swings of 10% or so from 1998 to 2015 in opinion on the seriousness of global warming, but with increasing polarization between those concerned and those unconcerned.

The first major worldwide poll, conducted by Gallup in 2008-2009 in 127 countries, found that some 62% of people worldwide said they knew about global warming. In the advanced countries of North America, Europe and Japan, 90% or more knew about it (97% in the U.S., 99% in Japan); in less developed countries, especially in Africa, fewer than a quarter knew about it, although many had noticed local weather changes. Among those who knew about global warming, there was a wide variation between nations in belief that the warming was a result of human activities.

By 2010, with 111 countries surveyed, Gallup determined that there was a substantial decrease since 2007–08 in the number of Americans and Europeans who viewed global warming as a serious threat. In the US, just a little over half the population (53%) now viewed it as a serious concern for either themselves or their families; this was 10 points below the 2008 poll (63%). Latin America had the biggest rise in concern: 73% said global warming is a serious threat to their families. This global poll also found that people are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities than to natural causes, except in the US where nearly half (47%) of the population attributed global warming to natural causes.

A March–May 2013 survey by Pew Research Center for the People & the Press polled 39 countries about global threats. According to 54% of those questioned, global warming featured top of the perceived global threats. In a January 2013 survey, Pew found that 69% of Americans say there is solid evidence that the Earth's average temperature has been getting warmer over the past few decades, up six points since November 2011 and 12 points since 2009.

A 2010 survey of 14 industrialized countries found that skepticism about the danger of global warming was highest in Australia, Norway, New Zealand and the United States, in that order, correlating positively with per capita emissions of carbon dioxide.

Etymology

In the 1950s, research suggested increasing temperatures, and a 1952 newspaper reported "climate change". This phrase next appeared in a November 1957 report in The Hammond Times which described Roger Revelle's research into the effects of increasing human-caused CO₂ emissions on the greenhouse effect, "a large scale global warming, with radical climate changes may result". Both phrases were only used occasionally until 1975, when Wallace Smith Broecker published a scientific paper on the topic; "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?" The phrase began to come into common use, and in 1976 Mikhail Budyko's statement that "a global warming up has started" was widely reported. Other studies, such as a 1971 MIT report, referred to the human impact as "inadvertent climate modification", but an influential 1979 National Academy of Sciences study headed by Jule Charney followed Broecker in using global warming for rising surface temperatures, while describing the wider effects of increased CO₂ as climate change.

In 1986 and November 1987, NASA climate scientist James Hansen gave testimony to Congress on global warming. There were increasing heatwaves and drought problems in the summer of 1988, and when Hansen testified in the Senate on 23 June he sparked worldwide interest. He said: "global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming." Public attention increased over the summer, and global warming became the dominant popular term, commonly used both by the press and in public discourse.

In a 2008 NASA article on usage, Erik M. Conway defined Global warming as "the increase in Earth’s average surface temperature due to rising levels of greenhouse gases", while Climate change was "a long-term change in the Earth’s climate, or of a region on Earth." As effects such as changing patterns of rainfall and rising sea levels would probably have more impact than temperatures alone, he considered global climate change a more scientifically accurate term, and like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NASA website would emphasise this wider context.

See also

• Climate change and agriculture
• Effects of global warming on oceans
• Environmental impact of the coal industry
• Geologic temperature record
• Global cooling
• Glossary of climate change
• Greenhouse gas emissions accounting
• History of climate change science
• Index of climate change articles
• Scientific opinion on climate change

References

• , p. 14. Report website.
• , Secretariat: TWAS (the Academy of Sciences for the Developing World), Trieste, Italy.
• (pb: 978-0-521-70596-7)
• (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4)
• (pb: 978-0-521-70598-1)
• . Climate Change 2013 Working Group 1 website.
• . Archived 25 June 2014.
• . Also available at mitigation2014.org. Archives: Main IPCC website: 27 November 2014; mitigation2014.org: 30 December 2014.
• pdf. The "Full Report", consisting of "The IPCC Second Assessment Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Information Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change" and the Summaries for Policymakers of the three Working Groups.
• (pb: 0-521-56854-4) pdf.
• . Summary for Policymakers Summary for Policymakers.
• (pb: 0-521-01495-6)
• (pb: 0-521-01500-6)
• (pb: 0-521-01502-2)
•  This article incorporates public domain material from the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) document: 
• . Archived url.
• . Report website.
• . Report summary.
•  This article incorporates public domain material from the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) document: . Public-domain status of this report can be found on p.4 of PDF
• Also available as PDF
• .

Further reading

• (pb: 0-521-01507-3)
• . Paper at IDEAS.
• (see Chapter 8)
• OCLC 317650570, 50016270 and 163149563
• (online version requires registration)

External links

Research

• NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies – Global change research
• NOAA State of the Climate Report – U.S. and global monthly state of the climate reports
• Climate Change at the National Academies – repository for reports
• Nature Reports Climate Change – free-access web resource
• Met Office: Climate change – UK National Weather Service
• Educational Global Climate Modelling (EdGCM) – research-quality climate change simulator
• Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison – develops and releases standardized models such as CMIP3 (AR4) and CMIP5 (AR5)

Educational

• NASA: Climate change: How do we know?
• What Is Global Warming? – National Geographic
• Global Climate Change Indicators – NOAA
• NOAA Climate Services – NOAA
• Skeptical Science: Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism
• Global Warming Art, a collection of figures and images
• Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions – NOAA
• Understanding Climate Change – Frequently Asked Questions – UCAR
• Global Warming: Center for Global Studies at the University of Illinois
• Global Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth – NASA, JPL, Caltech
• OurWorld 2.0 – United Nations University
• Center for Climate and Energy Solutions – business and politics
• Climate change - EAA-PHEV Wiki – electric vehicles fueled with electricity from wind or solar power will reduce greenhouse gas pollution from the transportation sector
• Climate Change Indicators in the United States – report by United States Environmental Protection Agency, 80 pp.
• The World Bank - Climate Change - A 4 Degree Warmer World - We must and can avoid it
• A world with this much CO²: lessons from 4 million years ago
• Global Sea Level Rise Map
• International Disaster Database
• Paris Climate Conference