Hurricane Hilary (2023)

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For other storms of the same name, see List of storms named Hilary.

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Hurricane Hilary
File:Hilary 2023-08-18 1410Z.jpg
Hilary at peak intensity while paralleling the western coast of Mexico on August 18
Meteorological history
Formed August 16, 2023
Dissipated Currently active
Category 4 tropical cyclone
1-minute sustained (SSHWS/NWS)
Highest winds 145 mph (230 km/h)
Lowest pressure 939 mbar (hPa); Lua error in Module:Convert at line 1851: attempt to index local 'en_value' (a nil value). inHg
Overall effects
Fatalities 4
Damage Undetermined
Areas affected Western Mexico, Revillagigedo Islands, Baja California peninsula, Southwestern United States
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Part of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season

Hurricane Hilary was a large, potant and very wet Category 4 Pacific hurricane in August 2023 that brought torrential rainfall and gusty winds to the Baja California Peninsula and the Southwestern United States that resulted in widespread flooding and numerous mudslides. The eighth named storm, sixth hurricane, and fourth major hurricane of the 2023 Pacific hurricane season, Hilary originated from a disturbance south of the southern coast of Mexico associated with a tropical wave that entered the far eastern Pacific Ocean from Central America on August 12. The disturbance gradually grew more organized, and became Tropical Storm Hilary off the coast of Manzanillo, Colima, on August 16. Hilary quickly strengthened into a hurricane the next day. Then, while tracking west-northwestward on August 17 and 18, Hilary underwent rapid intensification, reaching its Category 4 hurricane peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (235 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 939 millibars (27.7 inHg). The cyclone then quickly weakened the following day as a result of the adverse effects of cooler sea surface temperatures, drier air, and increasing wind shear. After weakening into a tropical storm, Hilary made landfall in San Quintín, Baja California, at 18:00 UTC on August 20, about 215 mi (345 km) south-southeast of San Diego, California. It then tracked northward into California, retaining its tropical characteristics through the morning of August 21, when it transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone while over the southern San Joaquin Valley. Hilary was the first tropical storm to enter California since Nora in 1997.[2]

In anticipation of "catastrophic and life-threatening flooding", the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an unprecedented tropical storm warning for Southern California, extending from the Mexico–United States border to just north of Los Angeles.[3] Forecasting persistent heavy rainfall, potentially "more than a year’s worth of rain" in some areas, flood watches were issued, affecting about 26 million people in four states (Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah), and the entire region was placed under a high risk threat for flash flooding by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).[4][5][6] Hurricane Hilary caused one direct death and three indirect deaths in Mexico.[1]

Meteorological history

File:Hilary 2023 path.png
Map plotting the track and intensity of the storm according to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale

On August 12, a tropical wave traversing Central America producing widespread rain showers and thunderstorms entered the far eastern Pacific.[7] A broad area of low pressure developed within the wave on August 14, off the southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.[8] The disturbance gradually became better organized during the following day, and when a well-defined circulation along with developing convective banding features were observed on the morning of August 16, it was classified as Tropical Storm Hilary by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).[9] Convection near the storm's center increased as the day progressed, dense overcast started to develop over the growing storm as a result, and an eye began to form at its center.[10] Consequently, Hilary quickly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane by 12:00 UTC on August 17, while located about 320 mi (515 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Colima.[11] Deep convection intensified beneath the system's cloud tops, which had cooled to below −112 °F (−80 °C), and its expanding upper-level outflow pattern became symmetric.[12] Hilary continued to rapidly intensify, reaching Category 4 strength at 06:00 UTC on August 18.[13]

File:Hurricane Hilary Mesoscale Color.webm
Timelapse of Hilary as imaged by the GOES-18 Advanced Baseline imager in simulated true color from 12:30 UTC August 17 through 22:07 UTC August 18

By 15:00 UTC that day, Hilary's intensity leveled off with sustained winds at 125 kn (145 mph; 230 km/h)[convert: %s]%s, an increase of 70 kn (80 mph; 130 km/h)[convert: %s]%s over a 24‑hour period.[14] Hilary benefited from exceptional conditions during its intensification phase, with sea-surface temperatures of near 86 °F (30 °C), low wind shear, and high relative humidity levels.[15] The hurricane initially tracked west-northwestward, then toward the northwest during this time, responding to the steering influences of a trough of low pressure to its north near the California coast and a ridge of high pressure over the central United States.[12][14][15] As those influences began drawing Hilary north-northwestward on the morning of August 19, asymmetrical convective patterns developed as the deep convection on the west side of the system was being eroded by an intrusion of dry and stable air. This caused the hurricane to weaken to Category 3 strength, with winds of 110 kn (125 mph; 205 km/h)[convert: %s]%s.[16] By the end of that day, the hurricane had fallen to Category 1 intensity as a result of the adverse effects of cooler waters, drier air, and increasing shear.[17] At around 10:30 UTC the eye of the storm briefly touched the mainland at Punta Eugenia, Baja California Sur, before passing over the nearby inhabited islands of Natividad and Cedros.[18]

Hilary made landfall at around 18:00 UTC on August 20, with tropical storm-force winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) in San Quintín, Baja California, about 215 mi (345 km) south-southeast of San Diego, California.[19][20] The storm continued to move north-northwestward after landfall, and crossed into California about six hours later, south-southwest of Palm Springs.[21] On the morning of August 21, while moving over southern California and Nevada, Hilary lost all tropical characteristics, becoming a post-tropical cyclone.[22]

Preparations

Mexico

The Mexican Government issued watches for southern Baja California Sur on August 17.[23] They were upgraded to warnings later that day.[24] Hurricane watches were issued for western parts of the Baja California peninsula at 03:00 UTC on August 18, and by 15:00 UTC the same day, they were upgraded to hurricane warnings as hurricane watches were issued for the west coast of Baja California.[25]

School classes and public activities were cancelled in Baja California, and in Baja California Sur, a baseball game was postponed and ports along the state's coast were closed.[26] Several schools in Cabo San Lucas were used as temporary shelters, and 18,000 soldiers were on alert.[27] In La Paz, law enforcement patrolled closed beaches, while schools in five municipalities were shut down.[27] Around 20 flights were cancelled at Los Cabos International Airport.[28] Tijuana and Ensenada closed their beaches August 19.[29][30] Across five islands in the hurricane's path, 850 people were evacuated.[31]

United States

File:WPC Day 1-3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook for August 19-22, 2023.jpg
The Weather Prediction Center’s updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook for August 19–22, regarding Hurricane Hilary
File:WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Graphic for Hurricane Hilary on August 20, 2023.jpg
The Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for August 20

On August 18, the NHC issued its first-ever tropical storm watch for southern California, and a level 4/high risk for excessive rainfall was issued by the Weather Prediction Center.[32] This became the first ever high risk of flash flooding in the desert valleys of Southern California east of the Peninsular Ranges.[33] A flood watch was also issued for portions of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.[34] Twelve hours later, the NHC upgraded the tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning for the region.[35] On August 19, the level 4/high risk from the Weather Prediction Center was continued and expanded.[36]

Amtrak cancelled its August 19 run of the westbound Sunset Limited due to the storm;[37] the eastbound August 20 run was also cancelled with its Texas Eagle attachment originating in San Antonio.[38] They also truncated the August 19 runs of westbound Southwest Chief and the southbound Coast Starlight to Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Emeryville, California, respectively.[39] The August 20 runs of these two trains going eastbound and westbound respectively would also originate from these locations.[40] Several Pacific Surfliner trains were also cancelled or forced to run on modified schedules as well.[41] Parts of Joshua Tree National Park, Death Valley National Park, Mojave National Preserve, and Lake Mead are closed, or will close.[27][42][43][44] The Los Angeles County Department of Parks and Recreation announced that all parks and facilities will be closed on Sunday and Monday. The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department advised all people to leave Catalina Island on August 19 and Avalon Bay was closed to boats and ships.[32][45] Additional resources were deployed to the island by the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department and the Los Angeles County Fire Department.[45] The San Bernardino County Sheriff's Department issued evacuation warnings for Oak Glen, Forest Falls, Mountain Home Village, Angelus Oaks and northeast Yucaipa also on August 19.[32] Evacuation warnings were also issued for Orange County, including areas near the Bond Fire scar.[46] The launch for Falcon 9 and Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base near Los Angeles was postponed by SpaceX.[47][48] An emergency operations center was opened in San Diego and Los Angeles.[49][50][51] Southwest Airlines flights departing from Palm Springs International Airport were cancelled.[52] Other airports in the region that had flights affected include Los Angeles, Bakersfield, Burbank, Long Beach, Ontario, Orange County, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and San Diego. DoorDash suspended operations in numerous areas across southern California.[53]

File:WPC Mesoscale Discussion 0955 for Hurricane Hilary in 2023.jpg
A mesoscale discussion from the Weather Prediction Center discussing flash flooding expected across most of Southern California as a result of Hurricane Hilary

Major League Baseball rescheduled three games in advance of Hilary: one each for the San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels.[54] Major League Soccer home games for the LA Galaxy and Los Angeles FC were also rescheduled.[55] The National Football League however did not cancel a Los Angeles Chargers preseason game at SoFi Stadium. Del Mar Racetrack canceled the race meeting scheduled on August 20. This is only the second time in the 84-year track's history that such a cancellation occurred.[56] In addition, no live audience was permitted to attend the August 20 games for VALORANT Champions Los Angeles at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall.[57] The United States Navy will move carriers and ships out to sea and out of Hilary's path, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt, and to park aircraft in hangars.[58] Federal Emergency Management Agency staff and personnel were ordered to be positioned in southern California by President Joe Biden, and Biden urged residents and people in the storm's path to take precautions.[59][60][61] Nevada governor Joe Lombardo deployed 100 National Guard and Nevada National Guard troops to assist southern Nevada impacted by severe weather associated with Hilary.[62][63] Lombardo also declared a state of emergency, along with emergencies in Clark and Nye counties.[63][64] California governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency for southern California.[65][66] The California National Guard preemptively deployed to multiple locations across southern California on August 19.[67] The American Red Cross opened shelters in Imperial, San Bernardino, and Riverside counties.[68] Emergency shelters were also opened by local governments in Yucca Valley and Twentynine Palms.[69]

Ongoing strikes by the Writers Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA were cancelled for Monday in Los Angeles in preparation for Hilary.[70] A concert at the Hollywood Bowl was postponed, and all Los Angeles County Department of Parks and Recreation areas were closed.[71] Disneyland and Disney California Adventure were closed early. Legoland California, SeaWorld San Diego and San Diego Zoo were closed on August 20.[72][73] The Los Angeles Zoo, Six Flags Magic Mountain, and Knott's Berry Farm were also closed.[74] California State University, Los Angeles and California State University, Fullerton canceled classes on August 21.[75][76] All campuses in the Bear Valley Unified School District will be closed on August 21.[74] Numerous airlines offered travel waivers to airports in southern California.[77] Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass signed a local emergency declaration on August 19.[74] On August 20, 2023, the Los Angeles Unified School District announced that campuses would be closed the following day.[78][79] Several schools in Orange County were closed.[76] Fullerton College was closed as well, and schools across the Anaheim Union High School District, Anaheim Elementary School District, and the South Orange County Community College District were also closed.[76]

On August 20, the Storm Prediction Center issued a level 2/slight risk in Southern California, which included 5% risk of tornadoes.[80] The Weather Prediction Center also continued the level 4/high risk, with David Roth stating that "the 00z NAM CONEST advertises local amounts of 17 inches (43 cm)+, which would be exceedingly rare, bordering on unique, for the region from a tropical cyclone and unique for Nevada. The 100 year ARI is forecast to be exceeded over a broad area."[81] At 16:00 UTC, Weather Prediction Center forecaster Richard Bann changed the outlook slightly, noting that model guidance indicated the chance for 5 inches (13 cm) of rainfall in the Idaho mountains from Hurricane Hilary.[82]

Impact

Mexico

Heavy rains from the developing storm affected portions of southern and western Mexico,[15] and ports were closed to navigation along the Pacific coast from Oaxaca to Colima on August 17.[83][84] Coastal areas of Sinaloa recorded torrential rains from the hurricane's passage, with the first fatality reported on August 18 in Navolato when an SUV and its driver were washed away.[85] Damage was also reported in the municipalities of Angostura, Badiraguato, Elota, and Salvador Alvarado.[86]

On the Baja California peninsula, nearly 1,900 people were evacuated to shelters.[31] One member of a family died when their vehicle was washed away by flood waters in Santa Rosalía, BCS.[28]

United States

Numerous flash flood warnings were issued across southern California, including Los Angeles.[87] Roads were flooded across Death Valley National Park.[87] Portions of Interstate 8, Interstate 10, Interstate 15, California State Route 14, and the Pacific Coast Highway closed due to flooding and rockslides.[88][89][74][68] Floodwaters entered Eisenhower Medical Center, but this did not impact operations there.[90] Vehicles were inundated in Palm Springs and Coachella Valley.[90] Palm Springs declared a local state of emergency.[90] Pixar Pier was temporarily evacuated, as warning sirens were heard there.[91] A tornado warning was issued for Alpine and Descanso.[92] Water rescues occurred across the San Diego area.[31] 9-1-1 lines were down in Palm Springs, Cathedral City, and Indio. A local state of emergency was declared in Indio.[68] At least 1,000 flights were cancelled and 3,700 were delayed.[77] More than 5,000 customers were left without electricity according to the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.[93]

See also

Notable tropical cyclones that impacted California:

Other tropical cyclones that impacted Southwestern United States:

References

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External links

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