Issues in the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

The United Kingdom's European Union membership referendum is due to take place on 23 June 2016.

According to a poll by Ipsos MORI released on May 18, issues identified by voters as being very important to them in deciding which way to vote were headed by the impact on Britain's economy (33%), the number of immigrants coming to Britain (28%), and Britain's ability to make its own laws (15%).

Issues identified as important by voters who said they were likely to vote leave were headed by the number of immigrants coming into Britain (49%), Britain's ability to make its own laws (30%), the impact on Britain's economy (25%), the cost of EU immigration on Britain's welfare system (16%), impact on public services / housing (11%), the number of refugees coming to Britain to claim asylum (10%), Britain's ability to trade with countries in the European Union (9%), cost of EU membership fees (9%), regulations by the European Union on British businesses (8%), the impact on British jobs (7%), and Britain's status in the world (7%).

Issues identified as important by voters who were likely to vote remain included the impact on Britain's economy (40%), the number of immigrants coming into Britain (15%), Britain's ability to trade with countries in the European Union (12%), the impact on British jobs (11%), the impact on the rights of British workers (10%), Britain's relationship with other countries (7%), the impact on British national security (7%), the ability to travel in the European Union (7%), the ability of British citizens to live and work in other European countries (6%), and Britain's status in the world (6%). Other issues were identified by 5% of respondents or less. This collection of issues is broadly in line with the findings of other surveys published during the campaign.

Economy

File:1999-2014 UK foreign trade share graph.png

Leave campaigners argue there is a shift in trade away from the EU, while those wanting to remain argue the dominance of EU trade on the UK's economy

The economy and the number of jobs lost or gained by a withdrawal are likely to be dominant issues; the BBC's outline of issues warns that precise figures are difficult to find. Scenarios of the economic outlook for the country if it left the EU are generally negative. In its May 2016 Inflation Report the Bank of England said that a vote to leave the European Union might trigger a recession. Think tank, Open Europe claims the most likely permanent effect on annual gross domestic product by 2030 upon leaving would range from −0.8% to +0.6%, but notes +1.6% is possible under widespread deregulation. Another, more narrowly focused studied by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics puts the figure between −9.5% and −2.2%. Research group, Oxford Economics says that depending on the new trading relationship with the EU, the impact on the UK economy would be between -0.1% and -3.8% by 2030, than if the UK had remained inside the EU. The impacts would vary across sectors but the group said that construction and manufacturing would be the worst affected.

Those arguing to remain in the EU, say that 3.3 million UK jobs are linked to the EU through exports and suggest that some would be lost in the event of a UK exit. A report by the Confederation of British Industry and PricewaterhouseCoopers found that the UK would lose between 350,000 and 600,000 jobs by 2030 if it left the EU. A KPMG report cites the UK's EU membership as influential in its ability to attract investment in the automotive industry. Clifford Chance call on the importance of the EU Internal Market legislation in the UK's financial services sector. Groups in the leave campaign, including the Institute of Economic Affairs, counter the claims of job losses by stating that "whether EU membership is a net positive or negative for jobs and prosperity in the UK depends on what policies the UK pursues outside of the EU" rather than membership itself.

The EEZ of the UK Mainland. The Common Fisheries Policy, with its implications for the British fishing industry, is a widely debated topic.

The leave campaign argues that a reduction in red tape associated with EU regulations would create more jobs and that small to medium-sized companies who trade domestically would be the biggest beneficiaries. A more detailed examination of the report shows that this analysis was conducted on the basis of impact assessments made by the UK's civil service before regulations came in to force. Few impact assessments are carried out after the introduction of regulations so it is very difficult to properly analyse their impact. A review by the UK Government examined the level of EU regulation on the UK and found that UK businesses benefited from access to the Single Market and therefore accepted that a level of regulation and harmonisation was desirable. The same report said that UK economy is bigger because of access to the Single Market. A study by Open Europe on the 100 most expensive EU regulations found that they cost the UK £27.4 billion per year and that 24 of those regulations had a net cost to the UK.

The EU's importance as a trading partner and the outcome of its trade status if it left is a disputed issue. While those wanting to stay cite trade with the EU is valued at £400 billion annually (52% of the total), those arguing to leave say that its trade is not as important as it used to be. Trade barriers with the EU could emerge if the UK left, citing a the car industry with a 15% export and 10% import tariff. This is rebutted by the leave campaign who say that countries such as the US, India, China and Japan are in this position and trade with the EU. It says it would put the UK in a better position to trade with other economies such as BRIC countries.

On 14 April 2016, Conservative politician John Redwood argued that Britain would end fiscal austerity by leaving EU, pointing out that leaving EU would allow UK to: scrap VAT on energy, tampon and others, claw back money from Brussels and increase social-welfare expenditures, and embrace the World Trade Organisation rule to trade with other countries without paying anything.

On 20 April 2016, former Governor of Bank of England, Mervyn King said that those treating the EU referendum debate as a public relations campaign tended to exaggerate the economic impact of a British departure from EU.

Net contribution to the EU budget
Country				billions of euro
Germany			14.2
France			6.0
UK			5.7
Netherlands			5.1
Italy			4.2
Year: 2014

The UK's EU membership fee

Britain pays more into the EU budget than it receives. The net contribution figures range from £5.7 billion (2014) to £8.8 billion (2014/15) depending on sources and the time frame. In 2014, the UK was the third biggest net contributor to the EU budget, or the 8th highest by net contributions per head.

The membership fee paid by the UK to the EU has been used extensively by the Leave campaign as an example of how the UK would benefit from leaving the EU. The figure often quoted of £350m per week has been criticised by Sir Andrew Dilnot (head of the UK Statistics Watchdog) in a letter as misrepresentative. The net transfer of cash from the UK to the EU in 2014/15 was £8.5bn (£163m per week) after subtracting the UK's rebate and the money spent directly by the EU in the UK. This represents about 1% of government spending or 2% of taxes received. The Remain campaign has used the figure of 1% in their Referendum Leaflet but have otherwise not discussed these figures widely in their campaigning.

Leave campaigners argue that this transfer of cash is a "hidden tariff" for exported goods, while the remain argument claims the net contribution is negligible in comparison to the benefits to business. In either event, changes to government finances as a result of the economic benefit or loss from leaving or remaining (which cover a wide range of forecasts: see above) are likely to outweigh the membership fee.

Immigration

Further information: Immigration in the United Kingdom

UK Border Agency officers at London Heathrow Airport's Terminal 5

Citizens of EU countries, including the United Kingdom, have the right to travel, live and work within other EU countries, as free movement is one of the four founding principles of the EU. Campaigners for remaining say that EU immigration has had positive impacts on the UK's economy, citing that the country's growth forecasts are partly based upon continued high levels of net immigration. The Office for Budget Responsibility also claim that taxes from immigrants boost public funding. The leave campaign believe reduced immigration would ease pressure in public services such as schools and hospitals, as well as giving British workers more jobs and higher wages.

In 2011, David Cameron of the Conservative Party (UK) made the promise to bring net migration to the UK under 100,000 by 2015, but the Government did not meet this target, and net migration rose to 336,000 in 2015. According to the ONS, net migration from the EU had risen to 183,000 in March 2015, an increase of 53,000 from March 2014. This has been used by Eurosceptic parties such as UKIP, to campaign for leaving the EU. However, British Major-General Jonathan Shaw has argued that "more than half of the 332,000 immigrants came from outside the EU", which has nothing to do with EU membership. However, the UK government's official migration figures themselves are highly controversial, because the number of National Insurance numbers claimed in the same period was 630,000, more than double the official migration figures.

Since 2003, a bilateral agreement between the UK and France known as Le Touquet Agreement allows British border control officers to screen immigrants before they leave France. In March 2016, Emmanuel Macron, the French Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs, warned that should the UK leave the EU, this agreement could be terminated. He added that the Calais jungle could be transferred to mainland England as a result. However, French Interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve completely dismissed the claim by Mr. Macron, saying that if the Touquet treaty (which is a bilateral treaty and has nothing to do with the EU) was terminated, it would give a green light to people smugglers and would only boost the numbers of migrants trying to cross Europe.

The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) sent a letter to the ONS and expressed concern that there were discrepancies between the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures. The ONS data showed that 904,000 EU nationals moved to UK, while the DWP data showed that the 2.25 million EU nationals registered National Insurance Numbers(NINO) during the 2010-2015 period. Ed Humpherson, director-general for regulation at UKSA, wrote that the lack of a clear understanding and explanation of the differences between the DWP and ONS figures had led to speculation about the quality of the statistics, adding that the ONS's May publication would be part of the statistical evidence to inform the public about immigration levels ahead of the EU referendum.

EU migration and EU nationals who registered NINO (thousands)

  EU migration: Immigration statistics

  EU nationals: National Insurance Number registrations

Sovereignty and influence

I look forward to the day when the Westminster Parliament is just a Council Chamber in Europe

Kenneth Clarke

A key question in the debate is where decisions should be taken, and at what level ultimate legal authority is vested. A primary slogan of the Vote Leave campaign has been for Britain to "take back control", while according to Britain Stronger in Europe membership of the EU gives Britain not only more economic strength, but also more influence and a stronger leadership role.

In polls for YouGov a third of voters selected "Which is likely to strike a better balance between Britain's right to act independently, and the appropriate level of co-operation with other countries" as the issue that would be most important to them in deciding how to vote.

One area where the issue of sovereignty arises is whether laws of the United Kingdom as a Sovereign State have inalienable rights over EU laws. The Parliamentary act European Communities Act 1972 (UK) addresses this transposition as defined by EU law.

Security, law enforcement and defence

In February 2016, thirteen of Britain's most senior former military commanders urged voters to back EU membership to protect British national security.

Also in February 2016, Rob Wainwright (head of Europol) said that "a U.K. departure from the EU could inhibit police cooperation and cross-border investigations in Europe, at least until an alternative arrangement is agreed". Speaking to Police Professional, he said that "if the UK was to vote to leave, it would no longer have direct use of pan-European databases or the ability to automatically join intelligence projects such as the European Migrant Smuggling Centre, the European Counter Terror Centre and the European Cybercrime Centre".

Some EU counter-terrorism experts, British police and intelligence agencies have suggested that inter-agency co-operation across the EU could be improved in the light of the Schengen Agreement (even though the UK is not in Schengen). They added that the UK had a single, well-policed border and better intelligence, and neither were a result of belonging to the European Union.

On 21 February 2016, Work and Pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, who was a Eurosceptic as early as 1992, opined that remaining in the EU would make it more difficult to prevent terrorist attacks, because only by leaving the EU can the UK regain control of its borders. He went on to suggest that the terrorists of the November 2015 Paris attacks had traveled to France from war-torn Syria and neither France (an EU member) or the EU itself had been able to prevent the attack. Shortly after the remarks, Shadow Home Secretary Andy Burnham deplored what he called "highly irresponsible comments" and "inaccurate to boot" as the UK is not in Schengen. Meanwhile, Conservative MEP Timothy Kirkhope retorted that Duncan Smith was "categorically wrong about security post Brexit". Similarly, Labour MP Dan Jarvis went on to suggest that Duncan Smith's remarks were "misjudged and wrong", adding "This type of scaremongering should have no place in the vital debate about our country’s future that will take place over the coming months". Labour MP Tristram Hunt agreed with Jarvis and called the remarks "baseless scaremongering from a man who knows he's on the wrong side of the argument". Moreover, Jonathan Evans, the former Director-General of MI5, dismissed Duncan Smith's remarks, arguing once again that EU membership kept the UK safe.

On 28 February 2016, Major-General Jonathan Shaw wrote an opinion piece in the Daily Mail suggesting remaining in the EU would protect Britain from cyber-attacks as well as threats from migration (as the UK is not in Schengen) and terrorism. He concluded that remaining in the EU would keep Britain safe.

Major-General Julian Thompson wrote in an article for the Daily Telegraph that the EU should have nothing to do with UK's national security, which Boris Johnson echoed. He claimed that during the Cold War, it was NATO which prevented the Soviet Union's attack. Thompson claims that the EU played no role in reaching peace in the Troubles in Northern Ireland during 1968–1998. By contrast, Enda Kenny, Taoiseach of Ireland, claimed that EU membership played a significant role in ending the Troubles and achieving peace in Northern Ireland, and that a withdrawal from the European Union would put the Northern Ireland peace process at risk.

Risk to the unity of the United Kingdom

With opinion polls showing that Scotland is more strongly in favour of remaining in the EU than the rest of the UK, the possibility that Scotland could vote to remain within the EU but find itself withdrawn from the EU 'against its will' has led to discussion about the risk to the unity of the United Kingdom if that outcome materialised. Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has made clear that she believes that a second independence referendum will "almost certainly" be demanded by Scots if the UK votes to leave the EU but Scotland does not, and Prime Minister David Cameron has stated that he was well aware of demands for a rerun of the 2014 referendum if the UK voted for Brexit and Scotland voted to remain in the European Union. An Ipsos MORI poll in February 2016 found that 54% would vote Yes to independence in those circumstances with 39% voting ‘No’ and 7% unsure.

The First Minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones, has said: "If Wales votes to remain in [the EU] but the UK votes to leave, there will be a... constitutional crisis. The UK cannot possibly continue in its present form if England votes to leave and everyone else votes to stay."

Former Defence minister Liam Fox has rebutted the claim that Scotland would hold a second referendum, saying that if Scotland votes to Remain in the EU, but any combination England, Wales, Northern Ireland, Cornwall and Gibraltar vote to Leave, that would not trigger an independence referendum in England or anywhere else. He said that part of the concept of the United Kingdom is that decisions are made as one country and the people of Scotland voted only 18 months ago, by a margin over 10%, to remain part of the UK.

However, ex-shadow education secretary Tristram Hunt accused the Brexit camp of being "cavalier with the future of our country", stressing how a second Scottish independence referendum would be certain to follow a Leave vote on June 23.

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)

In March 2016, Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said that UK should consider to leave the EU if the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) was signed, despite his being supportive of Britain's EU membership. As Stiglitz noted, if TTIP were implemented, the UK government would be sued by corporations every time the government imposed a regulation to limit the health impact of toxins such as asbestos or anything else.

On 3 April 2016, former Tory deputy leader Peter Lilley expressed his opinion that free-trade advocates should be very wary of endorsing TTIP, and both the Remain and Leave campaigns should look very carefully at TTIP's implications for UK's EU membership. Pointing out that the average tariff imposed by the US government on goods from Europe was just 2.5 per cent, Lilley argued that reducing the tariffs would not make a difference, and that TTIP was not really about removing tariffs and quotas. In his view, TTIP was mainly about creating a special regime for investment and removing hidden rules which protect domestic industories.

According to Lilley, Investor state dispute settlement (ISDS) which was contained in TTIP would give foreign corporations their own privileged legal system: under ISDS, big foreign corporations would be allowed to sue a national government in special courts over the government's regulations that could adversely impact their profits, and the judges of the special courts are commercial lawyers who usually work for corporations. The average case costs amount to 8 million dollars. If UK was in EU when TTIP and Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement were ratified, Lilley argued, UK would be bound jointly and could not renegotiate these international agreements without the consent of every EU state and the European Commission.

In April 2016, US president Barack Obama suggested that UK would not ratify the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a trade agreement between the European Union and the USA, in the event of the UK leaving the EU. The BBC News describes TTIP as a trade pact to reduce tariffs and regulatory barriers so that corporations could access more easily the both markets, adding that TTIP would affect industries such as food, pharmaceuticals, finance etc. According to the BBC, the government said that customers would benefit from the lower tariffs of on daily commodities.

On 22 April 2016, War on Want alleged that US president Barack Obama's true intention in warning against Brexit was to ensure that Britain would ratify TTIP.

Nick Dearden wrote in a Guardian article that even if UK left EU, UK would be required to accept many of TTIP's provisions in order to access the single market.

Janet Daley wrote in a Telegraph article that TTIP could threaten the NHS because TTIP would allow private US health providers to access the British market. In April 2016, former Foreign secretary David Owen argued that TTIP would have a negative impact on the NHS if the UK stays in the EU.

Jude Kirton-Darling, a Labour MEP who sits on the EU Parliament's trade committee, has argued that the content of TTIP is in the balance. According to Kirton-Darling to gain an agreement that is "progressive, fair and beneficial to ordinary European citizens" requires "engaging, persuading and building alliances with our European colleagues". For her the referendum choice is "between having a say in our future or watching from the sidelines". The Socialists and Democrats group to which UK Labour are affiliated are often portrayed as the swing votes on TTIP issues in the European Parliament.

On 19 May 2016, Peter Lilley and other Eurosceptic Tory MPs made a plan to lead a rebellion in order to amend the Queen's Speech, because the MPs feared that the US-EU pact would lead to the privatisation of the NHS by paving the way for American health providers in the UK. Lilley said that TTIP would grant American multinationals the right to sue the British government, and questioned why the British government had not tried to exclude the NHS from TTIP. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn backed the amendment, saying that his concerns about TTIP were not just about the impact on the NHS but also the Investor-state dispute settlement which would enfranchise global corporations at the expense of national governments.

In response to the rebellion, David Cameron's spokesman denied that TTIP could affect the NHS, pointing out that in the House of Commons on 4 May 2016 Cameron made a comment that UK's public health system was completely protected under TTIP.

Although the UK government agreed to amend the Queen's Speech, there was a question of whether this amendment guaranteed that the UK government would legislate to ensure that the NHS was protected from TTIP. Assistant general secretary of Unite Gail Cartmail said that this amendment gave MPs a unique opportunity to prevent the irreversible privatisation of the NHS and to neutralise the NHS as an EU referendum issue. Tory MP William Wragg said that if UK were to stay in EU, the UK government could do nothing to prevent the partial privatisation of the NHS. Tory MP Steve Baker said that the UK government had admitted that EU was a threat to the NHS, adding that voting to leave EU in the referendum was the only way to protect the NHS from TTIP.

Director of Global Justice Now Nick Dearden said that TTIP had been an important issue in referendum debate, and MPs were right to push the issue over the need to protect the NHS and other important public services from TTIP, pointing out that the UK government had refused to explicitly exclude the NHS from the TTIP negotiations.

Science and universities

Science is an issue in the referendum because scientists in the UK receive funding from the EU, take part in EU-wide collaborations and are subject to EU regulations. Scientists are also used to a free flow of labour within the EU, often recruiting scientists into UK universities from other EU countries. Most of the scientists who have taken a public stance on the UK's membership of the EU have done so to warn that exit would harm the science sector, although some object to European regulations.

Although the UK is a net financial contributor to the EU, it is a net beneficiary of the research budget, contributing £4.3 billion from 2007 to 2013 while receiving £7 billion back. UK universities get around 16% of their funding from the EU, and more European Research Council-funded researchers are based in the UK than in any other EU member country. Fifteen percent of researchers at UK universities are EU nationals from outside the UK.

In April 2016, the cross-party Science and Technology Committee of the House of Lords published a report on the effect of EU membership on UK science. It had taken eighty written submissions and heard from thirty expert witnesses including the Government's chief scientist Mark Walport. The submissions from the science community overwhelmingly presented EU membership as beneficial for the UK. The committee's report highlighted free movement and collaboration as "perhaps the most significant benefit" to UK science and research. It found that the EU's principle of free movement "is of critical importance to the UK science community, including academia, businesses and charities". It said that EU regulation "clearly [has] a detrimental effect on UK and EU science" but that harmonising regulation across the EU could be beneficial. The report considered that, in the case of Brexit, the UK could become an Associated Country—the status held by Switzerland—but concluded that this was seen as a high-risk strategy, likely putting the UK in a weaker position. The existing situation, according to the committee, gives the UK a strong role in setting science policy: "UK scientists in various EU fora act to ensure that the UK’s voice is clearly heard and that the EU remains aligned with the advancement of UK science[.]" The committee said that Brexit would likely result in a loss of funds for UK science, as future governments would be unlikely to replace the level of funding coming from the EU.

One hundred and fifty fellows of the Royal Society, including Stephen Hawking and Martin Rees the Astronomer Royal, have publicly backed the Remain campaign, saying that Brexit would be "a disaster for UK science and universities". One hundred and three leaders of UK universities backed a separate statement saying that exit from the EU "would undermine the UK’s position as a global leader in science, arts and innovation." A survey by Nature, published in March 2016, polled 907 active science researchers based in the UK. Of these, 78% said exit from the EU would be "somewhat harmful" or "very harmful" for UK science, with 9% saying it would be "somewhat beneficial" or "very beneficial". Asked, "Should the UK exit the EU or remain?" 83% chose "remain" and 12% "exit".

Enlargement of the European Union

Main article: Enlargement of the European Union

States may apply for membership of the European Union under on criteria forthcoming from the Copenhagen Conference (1993). Membership is theoretically open to any European State "if it respects the democratic values of the EU and is committed to promoting them". As of January 2016 three countries have started negotiations to join the EU (Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey). Other countries have expressed interest or are considered potential candidates but have not reached a stage of starting negotiations.

To gain membership of the EU, the Council of Ministers must agree (by unanimous vote) to open negotiations. Prospective countries must then adopt, implement and enforce all existing EU laws which are divided into 35 fields (chapters). Before closing each chapter (that is, confirming a country's compliance with those laws), it must be agreed unanimously at the Council of Ministers. As responsibility for presenting a country as ready for negotiations to start or that a chapter has been closed, the President of the European Commission is able to influence the process. Junker confirmed that no more enlargement will occur before 2019 (although negotiations will continue). After this time enlargement may continue.

• Montenegro has 2 chapters provisionally closed a further 20 opened
• Serbia has no chapters closed and two opened
• Turkey has 1 of 35 chapters closed and a further 14 opened

Beyond the three countries mentioned here, other countries are potential candidates.

• Albania and Republic of Macedonia are waiting for approval to start negotiations
• Iceland has requested not to be considered as a candidate country
• Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo have been promised the prospect of joining when ready but have not reached that stage yet

No other countries are listed as potential candidates at this time (May 2016) by the European Commission.

Once a country joins the EU, existing countries may put in place arrangements to restrict the free movement of workers (but not citizens generally) for up to seven years.

On 25 April 2016 Theresa May said that Britain should consider whether the EU should continue to expand, describing Albania, Serbia and Turkey as countries with poor populations and serious problems with organised crime, corruption and terrorism. According to May, the UK citizens had to ask themselves whether EU should give all new member countries all the rights of membership.

External links

• EU referendum: impact of an EU exit in key UK policy areas, Research briefing, House of Commons Library, 12 February 2016

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