2021 Texas's 6th congressional district special election

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Texas's 6th congressional district special election
← 2020 May 1, 2021 (first round)[1]
July 27, 2021 (runoff)		 2022 →
Texas's 6th congressional district
Turnout 16.05% (first round)
7.93% (runoff)[2]
  x150px x150px No image.svg
Candidate Jake Ellzey Susan Wright Jana Sanchez
Party Republican Republican Democratic
First round 10,865
13.85%		 15,077
19.21%		 10,518
13.40%
Runoff 20,837
53.27%		 18,279
46.73%		 Eliminated
  x150px
Candidate Brian Harrison Shawn Lassiter John Anthony Castro
Party Republican Democratic Republican
First round 8,485
10.81%		 6,973
8.89%		 4,321
5.51%
Runoff Eliminated Eliminated Eliminated
 
Candidate Tammy Allison Holloway
Party Democratic
First round 4,240
5.40%
Runoff Eliminated
250px
250px
Ellzey:      20–30%      50–60%
Wright:      10–20%      20–30%      50–60%
U.S. Representative before election

Ron Wright
Republican

 Elected U.S. Representative

Jake Ellzey
Republican

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The 2021 Texas's 6th congressional district special election was held on May 1, 2021. The seat became vacant after incumbent Republican Ron Wright died on February 7 of COVID-19.

Ron Wright's widow, Susan Wright from Arlington, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump,[3] and Jake Ellzey (who lost the Republican primary for this seat to Ron Wright in 2018) of Waxahachie, who served as a member of the Texas House of Representatives starting on January 12, advanced to the runoff.[4] Ellzey finished ahead of Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez of Fort Worth for the second place by just 354 votes.[5][6] Sanchez conceded defeat to Ellzey the day after the election.[7] The district was a Republican hold due to two Republicans advancing to the runoff.

The special election was expected to be competitive, due to the district trending Democratic in recent years and its suburban nature.[8] A nonpartisan blanket primary took place, in which all candidates were listed on the same ballot. Since no candidate had received over 50 percent of the vote, the race proceeded to a runoff between the top two candidates in the first round,[9] resulting in two Republicans advancing to the runoff.[7] The runoff took place on July 27.[10] Ellzey won the runoff election, earning 53.3% to Wright's 46.7%.[11]

Candidates

Republican Party

Declared

Filed paperwork

Declined

Democratic Party

Declared

Declined

Libertarian Party

Declared

  • Phil Gray, property manager[15]

Independent

Declared

  • Adrian Mizher, banker[15]

Endorsements

Primary

Polling

Graphical summary

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Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error
(D) Tammy Allison
(R) Michael Ballantine
(D) Lydia Bean
(R) John Castro
(D) Daryl Eddings
(R) Mike Egan
(R) Jake Ellzey
(L) Phil Gray
(R) Brian Harrison
(D) Matt Hinterlong
(R) Sery Kim
(D) Shawn Lassiter
(I) Adrian Mizher
(D) Patrick Moses
(R) Travis Rodermund
(R) Dan Rodimer
(D) Manuel Salazar
(D) Jana Sanchez
(R) Jennifer Sharon
(D) Brian Stephenson
(D) Chris Suprun
(R) Michael Wood
(R) Susan Wright
 Other Undecided
Meeting Street Insights (R) April 11–13, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 0% 5% 3% 0% 1% 14% <1% 12% 0% <1% 3% 1% <1% 0% 2% <1% 16% <1% 1% 1% 1% 15% – 23%
– – 7% – – – 16% – 12% – – 5% – 3% – 2% – 20% – – – – 17% 0% 19%
Data for Progress (D)[upper-alpha 1] April 5–12, 2021 344 (LV) ± 5.0% – – 9% – – – 13% – 10% – – 10% 2% – – – – 16% – – – – 22% 2% 14%
Global Strategy Group (D)[upper-alpha 2] March 11–16, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 6% – – – 8% – 6% – – 4% – 2% – 1% – 9% – – – – 18% – 45%
Victoria Research (D)[upper-alpha 3] March 9–12, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.6% – – 5% – – – 8% – – – 1% 3% 3% 2% – – – 17% – – – – 21% 3% 39%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[56] Lean R March 19, 2021
Inside Elections[57] Lean R April 23, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[58] Likely R April 15, 2021

Results

Susan Wright came in first in the primary with 15,077 (19.2%) votes to Ellzey's 10,865 (13.8%) and Sanchez's 10,518 (13.4%). On Sunday, May 2, 2021, Sanchez conceded the race to Ellzey. Since no candidate received a majority, the top two candidates, Wright and Ellzey, proceeded to a runoff.

2021 Texas's 6th congressional district special election[59]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Susan Wright 15,077 19.21
Republican Jake Ellzey 10,865 13.85
Democratic Jana Sanchez 10,518 13.40
Republican Brian Harrison 8,485 10.81
Democratic Shawn Lassiter 6,973 8.89
Republican John Anthony Castro 4,321 5.51
Democratic Tammy Allison Holloway 4,240 5.40
Democratic Lydia Bean 2,923 3.72
Republican Michael Wood 2,509 3.20
Republican Michael Ballantine 2,225 2.84
Republican Dan Rodimer 2,088 2.66
Democratic Daryl J. Eddings Sr. 1,654 2.11
Republican Mike Egan 1,544 1.97
Democratic Patrick Moses 1,189 1.52
Democratic Manuel R. Salazar III 1,120 1.43
Republican Sery Kim 889 1.13
Republican Travis Rodermund 460 0.59
Independent Adrian Mizher 351 0.45
Democratic Brian K. Stephenson 271 0.35
Libertarian Phil Gray 265 0.34
Democratic Matthew Hinterlong 252 0.32
Republican Jennifer Garcia Sharon 150 0.19
Democratic Chris Suprun 102 0.13
Total votes 78,471 100.00

Runoff

A runoff was held on July 27 between Susan Wright and Jake Ellzey. In the campaign prior to the runoff, Wright relied heavily on Trump's endorsement in order to further her candidacy, but was considered to have run a poor campaign.[60] The Club for Growth spent heavily in the runoff, buying US $1.2 million in advertisements that supported Wright and attacked Ellzey.[60] The heavily negative tone taken by the Club for Growth ads towards Ellzey frustrated many Republican officials, some of whom backed Ellzey in protest.[60] Ellzey's campaign also engaged in strategies that were suspected as being designed to appeal to Democrats, with him declaring himself a "champion of public education" in text messages to Democratic-leaning potential voters, as well as noting that Wright was endorsed by former President Donald Trump.[60] Defending Main Street, a Super PAC that was supporting Ellzey, targeted Democrats with advertisements, but Ellzey himself denied that he was specifically targeting Democrats, instead claiming that his statements were designed to be bipartisan.[60]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Solid R July 9, 2021
Inside Elections[62] Solid R June 18, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Safe R July 21, 2021

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Wright (R)		 Jake
Ellzey (R)		 Undecided
American Viewpoint (R)[upper-alpha 4] July 19–21, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 34% 12%
American Viewpoint (R)[upper-alpha 4] June 1–3, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 34% 11%

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Hypothetical polling
Susan Wright vs. Jana Sanchez
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Susan
Wright (R)		 Jana
Sanchez (D)		 Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[upper-alpha 1] April 5–12, 2021 344 (LV) ± 5.0% 53% 43% 5%
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Meeting Street Insights (R) April 11–13, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 42% 5%

Results

2021 Texas' 6th congressional district special election runoff[74]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jake Ellzey 20,837 53.27
Republican Susan Wright 18,279 46.73
Total votes 39,116 100.00
Republican hold

By county

County[2] Jake Ellzey
Republican		 Susan Wright
Republican		 Margin Total votes
# % # % # %
Ellis 6,784 56.68% 5,185 43.32% 1,599 13.36% 11,969
Navarro 1,398 43.87% 1,789 56.13% -391 -12.27% 3,187
Tarrant 12,655 52.82% 11,305 47.18% 1,350 5.63% 23,960
Totals 20,837 53.27% 18,279 46.73% 2,558 6.54% 39,116

Notes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 This poll was sponsored by Way to Lead, Way To Win, and Boot Texas Republicans
  2. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Lydia Bean's campaign
  3. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Jana Sanchez's campaign
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 This poll was sponsored by Wright's campaign

References

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  26. ↑ State Republican Executive Committee, The Republican Party of Texas, TexasGOP.org, Austin, Texas.
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External links

Official websites of candidates
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