Northern Territory general election, 2016

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Northern Territory general election, 2016
← 2012 27 August 2016
All 25 seats in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
  Adam Giles Portrait 2015.jpg No image.svg
Leader Adam Giles Michael Gunner
Party Country Liberal Labor
Leader since 14 March 2013 20 April 2015
Leader's seat Braitling Fannie Bay
Last election 16 seats 8 seats
Current seats 12 seats 7 seats
Seats needed Increase1 Increase6
TPP @ 2012 55.8% 44.2%
TPP polling 38.2% 61.8%
Incumbent Chief Minister

Adam Giles
Country Liberal


The next Northern Territory general election is scheduled for 27 August 2016 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament whose current members were elected at the 2012 election.[1]

Legislation passed in February 2016 changed the voting method of single-member electorates from full-preferential voting to optional preferential voting.[2]

The election will be conducted by the independent body answerable to Parliament known as the Northern Territory Electoral Commission.

Timing

The timing of the election is dictated by the Northern Territory Electoral Act. Section 23 of the Act fixes polling day as the fourth Saturday in August of the fourth year after the previous election (unless that election had been an extraordinary election). The last election was in 2012, and was a regular election. Therefore, the next election is due on Saturday, 27 August 2016.[3]

An earlier election is possible in the event that a motion of no confidence in the government is passed by the assembly. Section 24 of the act states that an early election can be called if a motion of no confidence in the NT government is passed by the assembly, and no new government can secure the assembly's confidence within eight days. The original confidence motion must be tabled with at least three days' notice.[4] Alternatively, section 25 mandates an early election if the assembly rejects an appropriation bill.[5]

Background

The Terry Mills-led CLP opposition defeated the Paul Henderson-led Labor government at the 2012 election, winning 16 of 25 seats.

Adam Giles was elected by the CLP party-room to replace Mills as Chief Minister and CLP leader less than a year later at the 2013 CLP leadership ballot.[6] Giles became the first indigenous head of government of an Australian state or territory.[7][8]

Resulting from the 2015 CLP leadership ballot on 2 February, the possibility of a confidence motion being put to the assembly was raised by Willem Westra van Holthe to take over the leadership from Giles, however Giles managed to retain the leadership and continued to govern.[9]

Five months later, in July 2015, CLP member Kezia Purick defected from the party, the fourth parliamentarian to leave the CLP since the previous election, reducing the CLP to minority government.[10] Giles raised the possibility of an early election on 20 July stating that he would "love" to call a snap poll, but that it was "pretty much impossible to do". Crossbenchers dismissed the notion of voting against a confidence motion to bring down the government.[11]

Redistribution

A redistribution of the Northern Territory's electoral boundaries commenced in February 2015, with draft boundaries released in June. Once finalised, these boundaries will apply to the 2016 general election.[12]

On 16 June 2015, the NTEC released their proposals for redistribution. Major changes included in the proposal were:[13][14]

  • A new seat called Spillett would be created in the northern parts of Palmerston
  • Alice Springs would lose a seat due to its current three seats being under quota, with Araluen merging with the large rural seat of Stuart to form a new seat, Battarbee.
  • Two seats will be renamed: Nhulunbuy would become Milirrpum, and Wanguri would become Somerville
  • The two retained districts of Drysdale and Fong Lim would lose over half of their existing electorates
  • More minor changes would be made to the boundaries of all but five of the remaining districts

A period of thirty days in which interested parties and individuals could lodge objections ended on 16 July 2015.

On 16 September 2015, the NTEC released their final report into boundaries for 2016 and beyond. The changes that will occur will be less severe than those proposed in June:[15]

  • The proposed new seat of Spillett will still be created to the north of Palmerston but will have a slightly different composition
  • Araluen and Stuart will be retained with the division of Greatorex being abolished. Its electors will be transferred to Araluen, Braitling and Namatjira
  • The seats of Nhulunbuy and Wanguri will be retained
  • Drysdale and Fong Lim will see smaller changes than previously proposed
  • Four seats will remain completely unchanged by the proposals – Karama, Katherine, Nightcliff and Sanderson

Following the completion of the final report, it must be tabled in the assembly. In the event that an early election were called before the report was tabled, it would be conducted using the existing boundaries.[16]

Opinion polling

Just one opinion poll has been released since the previous election – conducted by ReachTEL and commissioned by The Australian which surveyed 1036 residents via robocall on the afternoon of Sunday 1 March 2015 across all 18 electorates in Darwin, Palmerston and Alice Springs – which indicated a landslide 17.6-point two-party swing against the incumbent CLP government since the last election.[17][18][19]

Date Primary vote TPP vote
CLP ALP GRN OTH CLP ALP
1 Mar 2015 34.4% 41.8% 8.8% 15.0% 38.2% 61.8%
25 Aug 2012 election 50.6% 36.5% 3.3% 9.6% 55.8% 44.2%

13.7% of voters were initially undecided as to their primary vote, with the CLP on 30.2%, the ALP on 38.0%, the Greens on 6.9% and others on 11.3%. Asked which party the 13.7% undecided had "even a slight leaning" for: 30.8% to the CLP, 27.9% to the ALP, 13.7% to the Greens and 27.7% to others. As a proportion of 13.7%, this equated to CLP 4.2%, ALP 3.8%, Greens 1.9%, other 3.8%, which have been added to the initial totals in the table.

See also

References

  1. ↑ Timetable for Future Elections: Antony Green ABC 27 May 2013
  2. ↑ Northern Territory Adopts Optional Preferential Voting and Bans Campaigning Near Polling Places: Antony Green 11 February 2016
  3. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  4. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  8. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  9. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  10. ↑ Kezia Purick quits Northern Territory Country Liberals party, Government loses one-seat majority: ABC 20 July 2015
  11. ↑ Adam Giles would 'love to go to an early election' after Kezia Purick resigns Country Liberals party: ABC 20 July 2015
  12. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  13. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  15. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  16. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ The Australian - Northern Territory poll - 1 March 2015: ReachTEL 2 March 2015
  18. ↑ Adam Giles-led Country Liberals Government facing crushing NT electoral defeat, new poll figures: ABC 3 March 2015
  19. ↑ ReachTEL 18-point swing to Labor in Northern Territory: Poll Bludger 3 March 2015

External links

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